PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   2 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 3:   5 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 4:   5 - 7 - 2 - 9
Race 5:   6 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 6:   7 - 4 - 5 - 9
Race 7:   9 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 8:   3 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 9:   5 - 3 - 6 - 10

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: WISECRAKEN (#5)

Morning line favorite Kaon (#6) is probably the horse to beat in this maiden claimer. While he hasn't been particularly competitive in either start against maiden special weight company, he’s done enough running to be considered a major player on the dropdown. Chad Brown is a solid 7 for 24 (29%, $1.90 ROI) with MSW to MCL dropdowns in dirt routes over the past 5 years. He makes sense, but I doubt he’ll offer much value. Narciso Dali (#3) arguably ran the best dirt race of anyone in this field when he checked in fifth at the maiden special weight level last time. After getting floated wide into the clubhouse turn by the drifting leader, he settled into a good stalking trip. He did tire in the late stages, but still maintained contact with some seemingly superior rivals. I wouldn’t necessarily want to take a short price on these connections, but he is undeniably a contender. I just have a couple of alternative ideas at prices. My top pick is Wisecraken (#5). He has finished far back in both prior starts on turf. However, he did show improved tactical speed with the addition of blinkers last time, breaking better than he had in his debut. He was mildly hampered by a wide trip in that most recent start during a time when the rail was an advantage on the inner turf. I think he has more ability than we’ve seen thus far, and the switch to dirt could work for him, since he’s a half-brother to solid dirt allowance performer Night Time. The other runner I want to use at an even bigger price is Disturbed (#2). He obviously hasn't done much running in either career start, but he did finish with some interest on dirt last time, galloping out past tired runners after the wire. He is certainly bred to appreciate more ground, by 15% dirt route sire Connect out of a dam who is a half-sister to G3 Withers winner Risk Taking. He’s another who still has upside, and it’s mildly interesting that Ryerson’s go-to jockey Jose Ortiz stays for one more try.

WIN: #5 Wisecraken, at 9-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #2 Disturbed, at 12-1 or greater

RACE 5: MAKART (#6)

There aren’t many ways to go in this weak maiden claimer, but I know that I want to avoid possible favorite Sense a Giant (#2). While he did finish second over this course and distance two back in his lone dirt attempt, that was a very weak off the turf affair. When I watch that performance, it’s pretty clear to me that he’s not much of a dirt horse. It’s true that this isn’t a strong field either, but he is facing better dirt horses than he met that day and he’s going to be a short price by default with Irad Ortiz riding. Between the favorites, I much prefer Gimmebackmybullets (#4). However, he also has questions to answer as he stretches out in distance to a mile. His pedigree doesn’t give too many clues about his stamina, and Rob Atras is just 2 for 18 (11%, $0.35 ROI) with maidens going from sprints to routes on dirt over 5 years. That said, he does own the best speed figures in the field and may be able to control this race on the front end. Yet I prefer Makart (#6). He has run some competitive races on dirt. While he finished far behind Gimmebackmybullets on Nov. 13, this guy got shuffled on the backstretch and was always out of position before passing some tired rivals late. He ran pretty well two back after getting away to a very poor start, and a repeat of that performance would make him awfully tough here. The big question for him is the one-mile distance, as he didn’t seem to handle it at Saratoga in July. Though, he was involved in a quick pace that fell apart that day, and actually ran better than it appears. I’ll use him with Gimmebackmybullets as well as the lightly raced Maythisbetheone (#1), who is one of the few horses in this field still with some upside.

WIN: #6 Makart, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 1,4

RACE 8: FAR AWAY LOVE (#3)

I acknowledge that Missy Greer (#4) is the horse to beat as she seeks to make it two wins in a row on dirt. However, she had all the best of it last time when setting a moderate pace over a sloppy track that she clearly relished. That seemed like a stronger field than it turned out to be, as one of her main rivals Spiked failed to handle the surface, and others have come back to run poorly out of that race. She could be the controlling pacesetter once again, but I need her to prove it to me at a much shorter price this time. Among the expected short prices, I much prefer Tap the Faith (#5). I’ve like this filly all along, though her development did seem to stall earlier this year when competing over wet tracks in the spring. She showed some signs of life at Monmouth two back, and then took a big step forward off the layoff last time, rallying for third into a slow pace. I still would have liked to see her finish up through the wire with a bit more enthusiasm, but she had done plenty of work prior to that point. She has a right to step forward second off the layoff and still has upside at the end of her 3-year-old season. My top pick is the horse who finished just behind Tap the Faith last time. Far Away Love (#3) was also compromised by the slow pace, as her rider elected not to use her early speed after she broke a step slowly. Many horses who worked out her trip, riding the rail taking kickback, would have thrown in the towel. Yet she continued to battle on down inside and was actually finishing better than Tap the Faith across the wire. That last performance represented progression from her U.S. debut, and I think she can move forward again here. She has more early speed than she’s shown in either start in this country and I would like to see Junior Alvarado get a little more aggressive with her here. I believe she’s as talented as anyone in this field but just needs to get more involved early.

WIN: #3 Far Away Love, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 5

RACE 9: SPECTATORLESS (#5)

I imagine that Voliero (#4) will take money on the big drop in class. Yet he’s a total unknown on the dirt and will take money off superior turf speed figures. The Jose Camejo barn looked pretty dangerous coming into this meet but their runners have underperformed lately. Camejo is just 7 for 43 (16%, $0.92 ROI) over the past two months, and 3 for 19 at Aqueduct during that time. If this one is a short price, I want to look elsewhere. I don’t have a major knock against Forever Wicked (#3), who has just been in solid form lately. Randi Persaud has actually been having a pretty good few months by his standards, and this gelding has continued to run well for the barn. He’s dropping down to the right level and has landed in a race that appears to feature some pace. I prefer him to Russian to Win (#10), who could also take money off some competitive speed figures at Gulfstream. He’s surely not impossible, but I thought others were more interesting. My top pick is Spectatorless (#5). At first glance, it might seem that this runner’s form is heading in the wrong direction. However, I can easily make excuses for his recent losses. He blew the start two back, robbing him of any chance he might have had. Then last time he again broke a bit slowly, but proceeded to rush up through the field to take the lead through some fast early fractions. He paid the price late, but nevertheless ran a lot better than the result indicates. Now he’s getting a subtle but significant rider upgrade to Romero Maragh and dropping to a more appropriate class level. I could also use Dontblate (#6), who chased a superior winner last time before tiring. Yet that peformance was a step in the right direction off the claim.

WIN: #5 Spectatorless, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 3,6