by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 4 - 6
Race 2: 8 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 3: 3 - 6 - 7 - 2
Race 4: 1A - 8 - 2 - 4
Race 5: 8 - 7 - 1 - 3
Race 6: 6 - 4 - 14 - 2
Race 7: 8 - 9 - 11 - 1
Race 8: 3 - 5 - 1/1A - 10
Race 9: 9 - 7 - 3 - 2
RACE 3: ROAMING UNION (#3)
Roaming Union is one of those top selections that I landed on via a process of elimination rather than any particular enthusiasm for the horse. There are just so many horses in this field that I find difficult to take, either due to an expected lack of value or poor recent form. The two runners who may attract the most tote support are Legit and Someday Jones, both of whom are coming off poor efforts in their most recent starts. Legit would be pretty tough for this field to handle if able to run back to his 9-furlong performance at Saratoga two back, but his overall form is inconsistent and it seems like he’s heading in the wrong direction. Someday Jones has run multiple prior speed figures that would make him formidable against a field like this. However, he didn’t have an obvious excuse for his poor effort last time and now this 7-year-old is being offered up for a tag for the first time in his career. I still prefer that pair to the horses moving up in class. Malibu Pro and Control Group completed a chalky exacta the last time they ran for $32,000, but this is a significantly tougher spot for both of them. I’m left with limited alternatives beyond the favorites, which leads me to Roaming Union. He has his own set of questions to answer as he returns from a 9-month layoff. However, his form prior to the break was solid enough. He was having trouble making an impact against tougher company and was probably in need of this drop in class before he was put on the shelf. Nevertheless, he’s earned plenty of speed figures that would make him competitive and he has the tactical speed to work out the right trip in what could be a paceless race. Furthermore, two of his four career victories have come going 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,6,7
RACE 5: COAL SHAFT (#8)
If this race stays on the turf, Amortization will likely be a prohibitive favorite. While she finished off the board at odds of 5-2 in her debut, she looked like a horse that might have needed the race. She appeared to be somewhat unfocused when Javier Castellano was motivating her on the turn and she only hit her best stride once she got into the clear in deep stretch, finishing strongly despite not threatening the leaders. She’s not catching the strongest maiden field for her second outing and appears to be a likely winner as long as she progresses. The others with experience aren’t particularly compelling. Miss Bonnie T earned a solid speed figure against a strong field first time out, but she was never really a factor in that spot. The biggest dangers to Amortization could be first time starters, and the one that intrigues me most is Coal Shaft. While Mineshaft is a mediocre turf influence, this filly’s female family is strongly geared towards turf. The dam handled turf and has produced two turf winners, but the real power is the second generation of this female family. Second dam Charlotte Augusta has been a good broodmare, producing G3 Lexington (the Belmont version) winner Mythical Gem and turf stakes winner Apple Charlotte. Danny Gargan can be hit-or-miss with his first time starters, but the barn has been heating up and this filly has some eye-catching workouts on her tab. She could fly under the radar in the face of the obvious favorite.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Box: 7,8
RACE 8: ASTORIA KITTEN (#3)
Fresco may finally break through this level by sheer attrition, as she seems to have found a favorable field this time. While I’m getting a little tire of her losing at short prices, I do acknowledge that she ran quite well within the context of her last race. The pace was fast and contested, and she made an early move to take the lead at mid-stretch before getting run down from behind by a filly who closed from last. With a slightly better-timed ride, she might have won that day, so she figures to benefit from this jockey switch to Joel Rosario. The only negative is that her price will likely be even shorter now that she has both Clement and Rosario in her corner. I prefer her to the other horses exiting that Nov. 8 affair. Summer At the Spa couldn’t beat her last time so I can’t see her turning the tables here. Perhaps Canarsie Angel is worth another shot after setting that fast pace last time, but she gets tested for class and won’t be much of a price as part of a couple entry. I think the best alternative to Fresco may be one of the wild cards. Astoria Kitten may just be off form at this point, as her last couple of efforts have been poor. And even when she was at the top of her game earlier this summer she still had trouble breaking through this level. However, she’s a horse that I’ve always wanted to see turned back in distance. She just doesn’t strike me as a true router, as she always quits in the last furlong of her races. Her dam has primarily produced one-turn horses, including talented sprinters Rectify and Satisfy. Furthermore, the often streaky Danny Gargan barn, which had been somewhat quiet through the fall, has been winning more races lately, going 7 for 15 over the past three weeks.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,10
Trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5 with 1,2,9,10
RACE 9: MUCHO SUNSHINE (#9)
Breithorn may win this race at a short price, but he’s a little hard to trust as he returns from a 3-month layoff for Linda Rice while dropping in class. He once was clearly good enough to beat a field at this bottom level, but he was totally uncompetitive when last seen behind top sprinter Nashville. Perhaps he deserves a pass for doing poorly over that sloppy track, but that doesn’t explain why Linda Rice is basically giving him away for $20,000 here. I’m using him defensively, but he’s not the kind of favorite on which I’d want to rely at a very short price. The problem with this race is that there are few alternatives form which to choose and the more obvious ones aren’t particularly appealing. Therefore, I’m taking a shot with Mucho Sunshine at a square price. This 4-year-old earned a 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure – a number good enough to win at this level – two back when just missing by a half-length after setting the pace. Some will be deterred by his last race when he was unable to duplicate that performance in the slop. However, he got the wrong trip, as he was outrun to the lead and repeatedly shuffled back while stuck on the rail. This time he figures to get an aggressive ride from Joey Martinez. If the favorite underperforms, I think he’s a real threat to wire this field.
Win/Place: 9