by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 2: 1 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 3: 8 - 2 - 4 - 7
Race 4: 6 - 7 - 5 - 1
Race 5: 2 - 5 - 1/1A - 6
Race 6: 2 - 5 - 7 - 6
Race 7: 5 - 1 - 2 - 8
Race 8: 6 - 7 - 1 - 5
RACE 1: CONNOLLY’S BEADS (#5)
Big Engine is going to be sent off as a heavy favorite in this race, but I have some reservations. While he apparently ran a fast race in his debut at Belmont, I have some doubts about the legitimacy of that performance. It was a 4-horse off-the-turf field, which featured only two horses with dirt form. Notably, Big Engine was entered for turf, which is not surprising given his overwhelmingly turf-oriented pedigree. He ran well during the race, leading for most of the way before succumbing to the winner late, but I think the speed figures for everyone in this field came up a bit too high. Whether you’re looking at Beyers or TimeformUS Speed Figures, winner Smokin Platinum returned to run slower in his two subsequent starts, and I also find it hard to believe that last-place finisher Light the Posse ran quite as fast as the figures suggest, given his prior form. I’m dubious about this horse’s ability to repeat that effort, and I’m against him. Among the short prices, I strongly prefer Ready to Escape. I know that he’s had his chances, but he’s run well enough to win races at this level in all of his starts, and his most recent effort was much better than it appears. Sep. 27 was a day that strongly favored horses racing on the rail, and this gelding made a 4-wide move on the far turn. My only concern with him is the series of gaps between his races, and the fact that he was a vet scratch in late October at Belmont. I’m using him prominently, but I want to take a shot with Connolly’s Beads as my top pick. This colt figures to be a distant third choice in the wagering, but I think he has a right to upset this field. After selling for a large sum as a yearling, he made his debut late in his 2-year-old season, and clearly needed the race. He ran much better next time out in a race that may have been better than the speed figures suggest. He’s had a lot of time off since then, but Gary Gullo actually has very good numbers in this situation. Over the past 5 years, he is 4 for 9 ($3.36 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more with maidens in dirt sprints. I expect a solid effort as he returns and gets a chance to compete over a fast track for the first time.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,6
RACE 2: JEWEL CAN DISCO (#1)
Ajnadeen is the horse to beat off a somewhat unlucky fourth-place finish at this level last time. Not only was he facing a tougher field that day, but he had to wait for room and alter course during the stretch drive. I don’t think he was ever going to win that race, but he arguably could have finished much closer without that trouble. The problem with this colt is that he was aided by a slow pace in his win two back, and I’m not totally convinced he’s quite as talented as some may perceive him to be. Angry Moon has certainly run speed figures fast enough to topple him in this race, but you have to wonder what you’re going to get from this 7-year-old after a series of layoffs and an odd placement on turf last time. This is the second straight start for which he’s been offered for a tag, and he will not be helped by the presence of the horse drawn just to his inside. Jewel Can Disco has faced slightly weaker company for much of his career, but I think he finds himself in a good spot as he makes his return to the races. He obviously had no chance going a mile against Diversify last time, but he had been in the best form of his career prior to that. I love the turnback to 6 furlongs, and David Cohen figures to be aggressive from the rail with this need-the-lead type of runner. I think it’s notable that he ran one of the best races of his career when he broke his maiden coming off a similar layoff in 2017.
Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,3
RACE 4: ROZIERE (#6)
Three of the main contenders in this maiden race exit the same Nov. 22 race. Lem Me Have It was a prohibitive favorite that day off an encouraging runner-up finish in her debut at Belmont a month prior. However, she didn’t appear to possess the same kick going a mile, as she never issued a serious challenge to the top trio. Gattino Marrone and Galadriel’s Light both finished clear of her that day. The one that I prefer out of that race is Gattino Marrone, since she did the most work on the front end, but it’s very hard to separate these three. I’m using them, but I’m more interested in fillies coming from different directions. Princess Pinky is an intriguing alternative given her competitive effort going a route of ground two back. Her last race feels like merely a prep, as she wheels back just 5 days after that dull effort sprinting. If she rebounds, she’s a major threat to win, but I can’t fully trust her. My top pick is Roziere, who figures to go off at a square price. I’ll admit that this filly has not done any serious running in either of her first two starts, but she is one that I believe has a right to improve significantly with this stretch-out in distance. She appears to be a long-striding galloper who doesn’t quite possess the speed to compete over shorter distances. Furthermore, Danny Gargan is 6 for 17 (35 percent, $2.64 ROI) with dirt horses trying routes for the first time.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,5,7
RACE 6: NO DEAL (#2)
Athwaaq is likely to go off as the favorite as she makes her first start off the claim for Linda Rice. She was claimed out of her debut against maiden claiming company, which won easily. While she wasn’t facing the strongest field that day, she earned a speed figure that would make her pretty formidable against this bunch were she to repeat it. I think she’s the horse to beat, but this is a significant step up in class and I don’t need her at a very short price. Hexameter is slightly more appealing to me given her overall body of work at this level. While it’s fair to criticize her for seldom winning, she always shows up with a competitive effort. I’d be surprised if she weren’t right there in the mix again, and she’s unlikely to be the favorite. Looking beyond these two, I could see how some horseplayers might consider a recent maiden winner like Itsjustnotyourday. She beat absolutely nothing of quality at Finger Lakes last time, but she did so in impressive fashion and ran fast enough to suggest she could be competitive against this group. However, she’s likely to go off at a shorter price than another filly exiting a blowout maiden victory, and I’m not certain that she’s more likely to win. No Deal trounced a terrible field by over 10 lengths last time. While it’s tempting to dismiss her off that performance, she ran nearly as fast as Itjustnotyourday against a field of similar quality. Some may be deterred by the fact that it took No Deal 14 starts to break out of the maiden ranks, but I think it’s worth noting that she’s had far fewer chances on dirt. Viewing her dirt races in isolation, she’s actually run reasonably well on this surface a few times, and her form looks more encouraging when you consider that her most recent win was her first start on a fast track since the summer of 2017. She won in wire-to-wire fashion last time, but she’s versatile enough to come from off the pace. She’s likely to fly under the radar in this spot, and I think she has a chance.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5,6,7
RACE 7: BEYOND DISCREET (#5)
Puffery is clearly to the horse to beat, assuming that she is the half of the entry that participates with Jose Lezcano named on both. I’ve been a fan of this filly throughout her career, but I’m starting to get tired of her act. She always seems like a logical contender at this level and she’s just had trouble breaking through. She was somewhat compromised by a pace that never developed last time, but I still thought that she could have finished with more interest. She’s stretching back out to a mile, which is the limit for her, and she’s going to be a fairly short price this time. I’m using her prominently, but I don’t think she’s a cinch to beat this field. Most will consider Cotton Candy Cutie to be her main rival. I think there are two ways to look at this filly. Some may argue that she needed her first start back off the layoff in September, and she was poised to take a big step forward last time but was unable to do so when she got stymied in traffic. She did have legitimate trouble in that October race, but I tend to take a more negative view of her. I didn’t feel that she did any serious running once she got into the clear, and I’m skeptical that she can get back to the form that she was in last winter, when she got very good for a brief period of time. I think she’s going to take money in this spot, and I want to look elsewhere. I’m giving Beyond Discreet another chance as she returns to the NYRA circuit. This filly had reeled off a string of solid speed figures at Finger Lakes over the summer, but was unable to translate that form to Aqueduct last time. That said, it’s not as if she ran badly in that Nov. 3 affair, considering that she defeated two of today’s rivals. Furthermore, 7 furlongs may be too short for her and she figures to appreciate the added furlongs he gets to work with today. I like the rider switch to Reylu Gutierrez and she figures to be a square price.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,8
Trifecta: 1,5 with 1,5 with 2,6,8