PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 2:   4 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 3:   3 - 5 - 2 - 7
Race 4:   1 - 8 - 6 - 9
Race 5:   4 - 7 - 8 - 6
Race 6:   7 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 7:   11 - 9 - 6 - 10
Race 8:   9 - 1A - 10 - 1 - 3

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: ALWAJD (#6)

In Traffic (#5) figures to go favored here by default as she drops back down in class. She stayed on well to be second on debut here about a year ago, but was then off for a long time after that. She seemingly returned in decent form in October, picking up third on the dropdown. Claimed by Jeffrey Englehart, she went favored at Finger Lakes last time, but lacked a late punch from off the pace. She has breeding to stretch out on both sides of her pedigree, but Englehart is just 4 for 25 (16%, $1.05 ROI) with maidens going from sprints to routes on dirt over 5 years. She’s the horse to beat, but I’m not thrilled with her at a short price. Tekila (#2) seems like one potential alternative, but she’s awfully hard to trust as she makes her 15th career start as a maiden. I’m far more intrigued by the lightly raced Alwajd (#6). This filly’s debut at Parx wasn’t a bad effort at all. She actually broke alertly but lost position on the turn before wheeling to the far outside. She then ran better than it appears when she returned from a brief layoff in her second start. After getting outrun early, she was staying on nicely through the stretch, quickly passing tired rivals at the wire. She feels like one that should appreciate added ground, especially as a daughter of 21% dirt route sire Daaher from a stamina-laden female family. This barn doesn’t have great numbers with stretch-outs, but I can overlook that given the lack of other appealing options in this field.

WIN: #6 Alwajd, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 2: PREPAREFORTAKEOFF (#4)

I suppose Triple P (#6) is the one to beat as she makes her first start off the claim for Linda Rice. However, she’s hardly a standout in this competitive field. She was facing a slightly weaker group at the $14k level last time, and I thought she hung a bit in the late stages after having dead aim at the leader. Yet she’s generally been pretty consistent and owns plenty of speed figures at Finger Lakes that make her a major player here. Knot Anymore (#3) is the real wild card in the lineup as she returns from a layoff. She was surprisingly dead on the board when she came to Saratoga over the summer, and performed in accordance with that lack of support, fading to last. She was claimed by Rob Falcone that day and now returns at a slightly higher level. It’s just hard to gauge her overall quality, as her best numbers were earned at Charles Town. Some may consider Bankers Daughter (#5) off her confidence booster at Finger Lakes last time. Yet she didn’t earn much of a speed figure there, and I didn’t like the way she was shortening stride late in that race. I want to go in a different direction with Preparefortakeoff (#4). Some may not realize that she’s been facing tougher rivals in her recent starts at Laurel. She was 42-1 for a reason last time, as the runner-up had recently won an N1X allowance and the winner was recording her fourth victory in her last 5 starts. I thought Preparefortakeoff made a nice move into contention in upper stretch before flattening out. She showed some promise over the summer, and it seems like she’s now rounding back into form. She also should be a fair price despite this race coming up fairly soft for the level.

WIN: #4 Preparefortakeoff, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 5: CALLALOO (#4)

Fortune’s Nephew (#7) is obviously the one to beat as he returns from a layoff to make his long-awaited second start. The word was out about this gelding on debut when he was bet down to 8-5 favoritism for a barn that isn’t known for debut success. He ran well, contesting an honest pace and taking over in upper stretch before getting run down by the experienced Safalow’s Mission. That didn’t seem like the toughest maiden event at the time, but a few horses who finished behind him have since come back to improve, including third-place finisher Ocean’s Reserve. It’s obviously somewhat concerning that he spent so much time on the sidelines after that, and Bruce Levine is just 3 for 24 (13%, $1.22 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more in dirt sprints over 5 years. He’s obviously dangerous if he returns in top form, but I’m a little reluctant to accept a short price on him. I see two possible alternatives. One of those is first time starter Awesome Native (#8), who goes out for the ever-dangerous debut barn of Jorge Abreu. Practical Joke is a solid debut influence, though there’s a bit more turf on the dam’s side of this pedigree. I’m more intrigued by another lightly raced runner. Normally I would be skeptical of horses like Callaloo (#4) who debuted for a $25k tag. However, he ran a deceptively strong race first time out. He was green heading down the backstretch, while also getting a tentative ride from the apprentice. However, once he steered him into the clear on the rail for the last quarter mile, this colt really kicked into gear. Trakus caught him running his final eighth in an almost unbelievable 11.89 seconds, but the visual supports that fast closing split. Dave Donk had entered him for a $40k tag 12 days ago, but he opted to scratch from there and run in this protected spot instead. I’ll take that as a good sign, and expect an improved effort here.

WIN: #4 Callaloo, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 7: LIBERTY FLAME (#11)

You can make a case for many runners in this wide open New York-bred N1X allowance. Carbon (#9) figures to go favored as she makes her third start off the layoff for Linda Rice, but she’s hardly a standout in this field. She’s run pretty well in both efforts this fall, particularly two back when she overcame a poor start to get up for third. Yet she was supposed to get the job done as the favorite last time when she hung in the late stages. Perhaps the stretch-out to 7 furlongs will benefit her, but she also could have more traffic to navigate in this 12-horse field. Shadolamo (#6) finished just behind Mia Bea Star last time when both were going a mile, and she could appreciate this slight turnback in distance. She has back form that puts her in the mix and it appears that she’s once again heading in the right direction for Eduardo Jones. She’ll also be a more enticing price than some other contenders in this spot. My top pick is Liberty Flame (#11). Like today’s favorite, she is making her third start back off the layoff. She ran well in her return two back, showing good speed from the outside before getting tired in the late stages. That was a decent race, as winner Funny How came back to beat a tougher field in her next start. Then last time Liberty Flame lost all chance soon after the start, as she was shuffled back between horses when put in tight quarters on the backstretch. She seemingly reacted badly to kickback, but still put in a nice late run to get up for fourth. She shouldn’t have those same issues breaking from the outside here, and she broke her maiden going this 7-furlong distance.

WIN: #11 Liberty Flame, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 6,9

RACE 8: HAPPY BOB (#9)

I expect the Chad Brown entry of Systemic Change (#1) and Opportunity Set (#1A) to take plenty of money in this finale. The latter is probably the stronger half of this pair, as he was game to just miss on debut here last month, battling for the lead throughout before just getting run down in the closing strides. He was once well regarded and could have upside in his second start. The same is true for Systemic Change, who didn’t earn much of a speed figure on debut. Yet that race occurred over a year ago and he could have improved during the time away. He’s bred to stretch out in distance, but you’re not getting much of a price on him as part of a coupled entry. Vodka Mardini (#10) also makes plenty of sense off his last performance. This well-bred gelding didn’t show much against some tough rivals as a younger horse, but he appeared to wake up when switched into Linda Rice’s barn last time, showing improved early speed before getting run down by a pair of seasoned foes. A repeat of that performance makes him a win candidate. My top pick is another horse that contested that Nov. 11 affair where Opportunity Set was second. Happy Bob (#9) went off as the favorite that day in his return from a brief layoff. Yet the trip just didn’t work out for him. Breaking from the rail, he was in a bad position right from the start, as he broke a step slowly and rushed up into tight quarters. He raced keenly while reacting badly to kickback on the backstretch and then had nowhere to go when asked for run on the turn. He ultimately had to alter course after encountering more traffic in the stretch, but the race had already gotten away from him at that point. The stretch-out to a mile is a new hurdle, but he’s drawn well outside this time, and he appears to have the physical makeup of a horse who should get this distance.

WIN: #9 Happy Bob, at 3-1 or greater