by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   4 - 6 - 1A - 5
Race 2:   1 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 3:   4 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 4:   7 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 5:   7 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 6:   4 - 7 - 5 - 1
Race 7:   7 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 8:   10 - 2 - 9 - 4

PLAYS

 
RACE 4: LETMETAKETHISCALL (#7)
The focus in this race is primarily on class droppers, as the majority of the contenders are exiting tougher spots to compete for this lower-level claiming tag. The most logical player is probably No Deal, who is arguably taking the most significant class drop of all. She’s been facing significantly tougher company at starter and conditioned allowance levels over the past year, so it’s understandable that she’s been soundly beaten in most of those starts. She’s nevertheless earned competitive speed figures in most of those efforts, so it stands to reason that she can do better as she moves down to a more realistic spot. One potential issue for her, and others, is a lack of pace in this race. The Pace Projector is predicting a No Speed situation, which essentially means it’s unclear who will benefit from a potential slow pace. Trouble for Skylar is predicted to be in front early, but she really needs a form reversal to capitalize on any potential pace advantage. I prefer the other filly likely to show speed. Letmetakethiscall drew the outside post position this time, which should be to her benefit after having to break from the rail in her last start. While she didn’t get a terrible trip in a conventional sense last time, she got the wrong trip for that particular day, as the track was favoring horses on or near the lead who stayed out of the kickback. Letmetakethiscall was outrun to the front, forced to steady down the backstretch and wait in behind runners while taking the worst of the kickback on the far turn. All things considered, she actually did well to lose by just over two lengths. Mike Miceli is having a strong year and he does well second off the claim, so I expect this filly to take a step forward.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,4
Trifecta: 7 with 1,4 with ALL
 

RACE 5: DUBAI BOBBY (#7)
Potential favorite Inside Risk is getting some serious, and needed, class relief as he drops out of graded stakes company back into this starter allowance. The connections got a little too ambitious off the claim at Saratoga, since he won what was a fairly weak race for the level. He did well to close from off the pace in that debut, but the race was falling apart late. However, it’s worth noting that, despite his apparent class edge, he hasn’t run significantly faster than the others. He also needs plenty of pace to close into and it’s unclear if he's going to get another favorable setup this time. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, which should help rivals like Dan the Man Can and Him She Kisses, both of whom have earned similar speed figures to Inside Risk. I’ll use them all in some capacity, but my top pick is another runner dropping in class. My top pick is Dubai Bobby. At first glance, it would appear that he has a preference for turf, and that may be true. Though, it’s worth noting that he was probably overmatched in his lone dirt start, which came against maiden special weight foes at Saratoga. Furthermore, he was racing down inside for much of his trip that day and the rail was not the place to be, so he ran better than his finish would indicate. This barn has sent out some live runners lately, so it’s probably wise to take this gelding seriously on the class drop. After all, it’s not as if he has to improve that much on his form for the prior barn and, with the exception of his October maiden, this is the easiest field that he’s faced.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,5,6
 

RACE 6: AM IMPAZIBLE (#4)
The Great Johanna figures to go favored as she seeks her third victory in a row. Rather than immediately trying this N1X allowance condition following her maiden win, her connections instead took advantage of the open starter-allowance condition for which she was eligible. She had to work a bit hard to win that day than her even-money odds might have suggested, but she nevertheless earned a career-best 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure. A repeat of that number makes her a top contender here, but there are certainly others to consider. Some may gravitate towards Paved With Gold due to her flashy 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure on the turf last time. While she has been competitive in her prior dirt starts, most of her top performances on that surface came over the summer and her recent form had tailed off. I’d rather look in a different direction. My top pick is the recent maiden winner Am Impazible. This filly had shown some potential in her career debut on Nov. 1, when she greenly dropped back in the early going while reacting badly to kickback. Despite losing so much ground, she nevertheless battled back through the lane to pass over half the field. Ultimately, that six-furlong distance was probably just a bit too short for her, and she appreciated an extra half-furlong last time. Now she has to stretch out in her first start against winners, but there are some positive indicators she can improve further. She’s bred to handle added ground since her dam won at a mile, and that dam is a half-sister to millionaire dirt router Royal Posse. Furthermore, Kelly Breen does very well off maiden wins, going 5 for 8 (63%, $4.97 ROI) with last-out maiden winners on dirt over the past year.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,7
Trifecta: 4 with 7 with ALL
 

RACE 8: TOPAZ BRIDE (#10)
After the scratch of I'm Fine, Imprsstheprofessor may inherit the favorite's role. She closed resolutely from far back to be third in her debut against maiden claiming company. While this is a step up in class, she's exiting a race that may be stronger than your average maiden claimer, as winner Officer Hutchy returned to finish second in a stakes last weekend. Imprsstheprofessor is clearly bred to stretch out in distance and she should be right there at the end with any kind of step forward. I'd also use the other second time starter who finished third in her dirt debut, My My Michelle. This filly only beat one rival in a depleted off-the-turf race, but she was staying on well late like a filly who should improve with experience. It wouldn't be any major surprise if she were to turn the tables on Courageous Girl, who finished just ahead of her last itme. I'm using all of these, but my top pick is Topaz Bride. This filly debuted on the grass, doing so against New York-breds in September at Belmont. She showed good tactical speed before fading in the lane. Yet, what intrigues me about her is that she didn’t appear to be terribly comfortable traveling over the grass that day and her pedigree does contain plenty of dirt influences. Tiznow is a capable dirt sire, and her dam was primarily a dirt horse. Furthermore, her second dam was a multiple stakes winner routing on dirt, even taking down the 10-furlong Ladies over this track. We saw Mike Maker win with a big price trying dirt for the first time last week, and this filly could deliver a similar result.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,4,7,9