by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   4 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 2:   7 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 3:   8 - 3 - 7 - 5
Race 4:   4 - 3 - 7 - 6
Race 5:   4 - 10 - 5 - 9
Race 6:   7 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 7:   8 - 2 - 3 - 11
Race 8:   6 - 9 - 2 - 4
Race 9:   6 - 2 - 5 - 9

PLAYS

 
RACE 1: RATIONAL CHOICE (#4)
Waxman looked like a promising sort when he made his debut at Saratoga. That’s proven to be a strong race, as winner Pipeline just missed in a stakes next time, and third-place finisher Cody’s Wish has since reeled off three consecutive victories. However, this guy has regressed in two subsequent starts. Waxman never looked comfortable over a sloppy track at Keeneland two back, but maybe it wasn't the going, as he displayed similar antics last time at Aqueduct. He was engaged early but came off the bridle and dropped back to last before rallying again for second. He certainly has the talent, and perhaps blinkers will give him the added focus he needs. Yet he’s not the easiest one to trust at a short price. There is no shortage of intriguing alternatives in this field. Rock Sugar can improve stretching out, American Law may be getting back to the right surface, and Mandatory showed talent over this course last winter. Yet I’m going in a different direction with Rational Choice. This colt put forth a decent effort in his career debut last season, closing mildly for second over this one-mile distance. He took some money for his second start in the slop, but never looked totally comfortable over that surface and was eased up late. This horse looked like a gangly sort who needed to grow into his frame last year. He’s been off for a long time, but he’s been training steadily for this return. Chad Brown is a decent 13 for 50 (26%, $1.67 ROI) with maidens off layoffs of 180 days or more on dirt over the past 5 years. He’s a player here with routine improvement from his debut.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 4,6 with 4,6 with 1,2,5
 

RACE 2: IRISH CONSTITUTION (#7)
Grudge and Social Whirl own the top last-out speed figures when they completed the exacta at this level on Oct. 29 at Belmont. Like many races in New York recently, that one featured a timer malfunction, so it’s hard to know how fast they actually ran. Trakus suggests it was an extremely fast pace, which is why Grudge got a massive 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure, including a sizable pace bonus. I’m skeptical about even those fractions, and have some doubts about the overall quality of that race. Social Whirl is the one you might want, as she’s been consistent and possesses an adaptable running style, whereas Grudge is a need-the-lead type. However, there are others to consider. Get the Candy was game in victory at the N1X level last time and looks ready to step up in class, though she has to deal with the early speed of Grudge. I’m most interested in a new face. Irish Constitution is a filly who I’ve always wanted to see tried on turf. Constitution is a solid grass influence and this filly’s dam has produced 2 turf winners from 3 foals to try it, both of those turf sprinters. Her recent form may look subpar, but she got a very wide trip last time against the superior The Important One, and two back she was facing stakes company off the layoff. I think she still has some upside and I’m optimistic about her prospects to improve getting on this surface.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,6,9
 

RACE 3: DUCKPHAT (#8)
My primary take on this race is that I don’t want to default to any of the short prices. The David Donk pair of Lady Thornhill and Out of Sight have both had their chances. The former is totally unreliable, changing her running style from start to start while sometimes just failing to show up. Out of Sight is more consistent, but she’s gotten great trips in her last two starts and has yet to break through. Hit the Nail could also attract support as she moves back into New York-bred company, but she’s a one-paced sort who often causes trouble for herself and her riders. I want to look elsewhere. My top pick is Duckphat, who figures to be a square price despite her improved form for the James Ferraro barn. She ran well two back when closing into a moderate pace behind Out of Sight. Then last time she had little chance when getting a wide trip in a race that was dominated towards the front end. I don’t think her form is substantially worse than that of the favorites and I believe she can turn the tables if she gets a little pace ahead of her. I also wouldn’t completely discount the colorful filly Saluki at an even bigger price. She ran better than the result indicates last time in a race dominated by horses who rode the rail. Two of her last three efforts have been solid and now she gets a significant rider upgrade to Trevor McCarthy.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,5,6,7
 

RACE 5: BUILT TO LAST (#4)
Sandrone figures to go favored after the scratch of rival Buckortwo. He has already had his chances to break through at this level and I’m not sure it’s reasonable to expect significant improvement. I also don't like the way he has struggled to finish in the last eighth of a mile twice in a row after threatening to win at the eighth pole. Among the alternatives are three intriguing second time starters. My Friend Duke and Red Fortress both finished fourth behind the two favorites in different maiden events over the last two months. My Friend Duke raced more recently and closed mildly after a 3-wide trip. I suppose he has some upside, but I think Red Fortress is more likely to move forward. This Maclean’s Music gelding blew the start in his debut and lagged far back before making a run through the stretch. He greenly hung on his left lead yet was still making up ground late. Linda Rice’s runners often improve with experience and I think this horse will run much better this time. Yet I’m instead going with a second time starter who is switching surfaces. Built to Last debuted on dirt just 13 days ago for Mark Casse in what appeared to be a fairly strong maiden event. He showed decent early speed but faded late behind a pair of well-meant first time starters. Now he returns for new trainer Tom Morley and gets on turf. He’s bred to handle this surface as a son of Freud out of a City Zip mare who was herself best on turf despite never winning. Second dam Lizzie Toon was a stakes-placed multiple turf winner, so there’s plenty of pedigree for this surface. He possesses more early speed than My Friend Duke or Red Fortress, and could be the one to catch under Dylan Davis.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 5,9,10,12
 

RACE 7: FINGAL (#8)
Alley Oop Johnny is the horse to beat as he drops in for a tag after a series of tries at the N1X allowance level. He achieved mixed results in those races, but he was facing far tougher competition most of the time. It’s clear that his best efforts over the past several months will be good enough to beat this field. The question is whether or not you trust him to produce that form as he drops in class while coming off a 2 1/2 month layoff. He also appears to be a horse who needs the lead to be successful in a race that features some other speed types. He’s arguably the most likely winner, but this is a competitive race in which I didn’t want to settle for the favorite. I do prefer that runner to Arrio, who could also attract some support as he ships in from Laurel. He could be the biggest thorn in Alley Oop Johnny’s side early, but I’m skeptical that he’s quite as good as a few of the local horses. He earned a solid speed figure for his turf victory last time, but that was a field of mediocre quality. I prefer some others at bigger prices. I briefly considered putting Steelersfanforlife on top, since he hasn’t had ideal setups in his last two starts sprinting. He can handle longer distances and will be a massive price. I have him in the mix, but he’s one that I’ll primarily use underneath. My top pick is Fingal. I think this horse has subtly improved since the claim by Rudy Rodriguez. He was facing a tougher field of turf horses two back in that starter allowance event at Belmont. He got keen in the early stages and fought rider Ricardo Santana for a few furlongs before settling. He couldn’t quite quicken with the winner through the lane, but he stayed on well behind some horses who have since come back to run well. I thought he also ran decently on dirt last time after getting off to a poor start. I don’t mind him getting back to turf here, and I just think he’s a great fit from a class perspective. He also could get somewhat overlooked given his muddled turf form.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,7,11
 

RACE 9: CONSTITUTIONLAWYER (#6)
Authorize is the one to beat after nearly getting the job done in his one-turn debut at Belmont. He took all the money that day despite Bill Mott’s mediocre record with first time starters going long on the dirt. This colt had clearly been training well for his debut and he ran to that support, leading every step of the way before getting nailed by a more experienced rival at the wire. His early speed should serve him well from this inside post, but now he has to stretch out to a demanding 9 furlongs. Added distance isn’t supposed to be a problem given his pedigree, but it’s just one reason to keep an open mind rather than default to short-priced favorite. Dr. Levy figures to be a solid second choice after closing well in his sprint debut at Belmont. He’s being asked to negotiate an additional 3 furlongs here just four weeks after that debut run, but he finished like a horse who should relish added ground. The problem is that he went off at 25-1 that day, so he was quite a surprise for a barn whose live runners usually take money. His pedigree doesn’t conclusively say that he’s supposed to want this far, so I’d proceed with caution. I want to take a horse coming out of a different race. Constitutionlawyer had trained well prior to his October debut at Belmont, but was asked to go a demanding 1 1/16 miles for his unveiling. While he lost by 11 lengths, I actually thought he showed some ability that day. He didn’t get off to the smoothest start, and he made a nice middle move once put to pressure at the the three-eighths pole before flattening out. I think this horse has some ability, and he ran like one that may have just needed to gain some fitness.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,5,9
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 1,5,9