by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 2 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 2: 3 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 3: 2 - 3 - 1 - 7
Race 4: 4 - 2 - 7 - 5
Race 5: 4 - 7 - 1 - 2
Race 6: 1A - 2 - 1 - 5 - 8
Race 7: 9 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 8: 3 - 4 - 2 - 7
RACE 2: FRANKNJYMME (#3)
Trainer Brian Lynch has a pair of entrants in this maiden event, both of whom exit the same July race at Saratoga. Iona Mobe is the one that figures to attract the most support, as he chased a hot pace and faded to finish third over a muddy track that he may not have relished. His only prior start came as a 2-year-old at Keeneland, and he finished a game second in a fast race. The obvious problem with this colt is that he seems unable to string races together, hinting at some physical issues. Even giving him the excuse of track condition, I didn’t like the way he finished off his last race and I’m reticent to take him as the favorite. Lynch’s other horse Into a Hot Spot would need a total form reversal after showing speed for a quarter mile and stopping. I want to look elsewhere. Many will gravitate towards Miracle Hill as an alternative, but I’m just not convinced this second time starter has much ability. Facing just 4 rivals in his debut, he really had no excuse not to at least be second after looming like a potential winner at the top of the stretch. This horse really has more of a turf pedigree on his dam’s side, and I wonder if he will need a surface switch to show his true colors. I want to get a bit more creative, so I’m taking a shot with Franknjymme. This is an intriguing, rare NYRA entrant for trainer Charles Lopresti. While the horse has yet to run a particularly fast speed figure, I feel that he’s kept relatively strong company in his races in Kentucky. While I generally favor New York form in these situations, the local horses aren’t exactly exiting the strongest maiden races that have been contested on this circuit in 2018. I thought Franknjymme ran better than it appears when in a tough spot two back at Keeneland. Then last time he was badly compromised by a lack of pace (indicated by blue color-coded TimeformUS Pace Figures) going a longer distance on a day that is coded as favoring speed in TimeformUS PPs. I think the slight cutback should work for him, and he figures to get some pace to close into with a few key speeds signed on.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,6,7
RACE 3: FUEL THE BERN (#2)
The Pick-6 sequence begins with an intriguing starter allowance affair that features yet another appearance by Missle Bomb. This remarkably consistent gelding has been a revelation since coming to the NYRA circuit, winning 8 of his last 13 starts while missing the exacta only on one occasion. He’s likely to go to post as the favorite this time after running one of the best races of his career when stepped up to this level last time. His performance was flattered by third-place finisher Monteleone, who returned to win last weekend. Missle Bomb is undoubtedly the horse to beat this time, but this is a highly competitive race in which can honestly make a case for all seven entrants. Consensus Thinking and American Power both ran well last out in the same Nov. 10 race. I prefer American Power, but this colt ran his best races for Jason Servis and he just hasn’t been quite the same since the claim by Linda Rice. If I’m searching for alternatives to Missle Bomb, I’m more interested in the two runners drawn down towards the inside. Gnarly will be a price in this spot, but he actually faced some decent competition in his most recent starts, in allowance races at Laurel. He ran well in those races and stacks up well from a class perspective. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is Fuel the Bern. While he’s enjoyed most of his success on turf, I think he’s a better dirt horse than his form might indicate. He actually ran quite well in his dirt debut as 2-year-old, and he had legitimate excuses in his two subsequent efforts over the main track. He finally got another chance on dirt last time, and he responded well with a dominant win against overmatched rivals. He’s going to have to run a bit faster to beat this field, but I think there are some encouraging signs that he can do so. His recent bullet workout signals that he’s maintained good form, and the Danny Gargan barn has been sending out live runners lately.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,6,7
Trifecta: 2,3 with 2,3 with ALL
RACE 4: CARTHON (#4)
It’s hard to know where to begin in a race with no clear favorite. I would guess that either Local Counsel or Discreet Mission will attract the most support. The former ran well to break his maiden in an easy score last time over this same distance. A repeat of that performance makes him formidable, but I do think it’s worth noting that his only serious rival in that race failed to show up with a competitive effort, making Local Counsel’s task much easier. This is a big step up in class for an improving colt. The main question for Discreet Mission is the distance, since he seemed to improve once turned back to sprints this past summer. He had trouble getting a mile earlier in the spring, but he may have not been totally fit at that point in time after returning from a 2-year layoff. His most recent start in November signals that he’s maintained top form, but I’m hesitant to take him at a short price. Ro Bear is a bit of an enigma in this spot. His most recent Beyer Speed Figure suggests he’s the horse to beat, but TimeformUS has the race much slower. While the final time was legitimately fast in comparison to other races on the card, it remains to be seen if that will have any bearing on the future performances of the participants. I’m dubious that Ro Bear will be able to repeat such an effort on the rise in class, but he is likely to be a square price once again. Since I’m not enamored with any of the aforementioned options, I’m taking a shot with Carthon. He figures to go off as the biggest price of the main contenders, and I think he has a real shot to pull off the minor upset. At first glance, it appears that he just improved on turf over the summer, but I’m not sure that’s actually the case. This horse was just hitting his best stride when he switched surfaces in July, as his prior dirt races were getting better. He had run well to break his maiden in the mud, defeating today’s rival Local Counsel, and he ran a competitive speed figure next time out in an unusually tough N1X allowance affair. The layoff is a concern, but this gelding was in the best form of his career when last seen, and I think he may offer some value in a confusing race.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5,7,8
RACE 5: ERLICH (#4)
Moretti will be a single for many Pick-6 players, as he’s likely to be the shortest favorite in the sequence. This colt definitely has some appeal, but I think you have to let price be your guide. He did run well in his debut, closing inside Bourbon War in the late stages after riding the rail. That winner returned to earn a respectable fourth-place finish in the Remsen earlier this month. However, I don’t know what to make of the fact that Moretti was entered for turf that day despite possessing more of a dirt pedigree. Furthermore, while his 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure is strong, some others have run nearly as fast and will be much better prices. He’s still the most likely winner, but my top pick is the likely second choice Erlich. I think these two are much closer in terms of ability than the tote board will suggest, and Erlich may have a pace advantage in this race. Depending on what Chad Brown’s pair does in the early going, Erlich should find himself on an uncontested lead heading into the clubhouse turn. In his most recent start, I loved the way this colt fought back once he was collared by eventual winner Tacitus at the eighth pole, battling on to lose by a slim margin. His new rider Eric Cancel has been aggressive lately, and successfully rode a front-running winner for this barn last week. As a son of Curlin out of a route-winning dam, Erlich should have no trouble handling the added distance. I think it's primarily between these two, as most of the others would need to improve significantly. I wouldn't be surprised if either of Chad Brown's entrants ran better. Longshot Will Dancer is the one that actually interests me more, as his last race was almost too poor to believe considering the encouraging nature of his debut.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,7
Trifecta: 4 with 7 with 1,2,3,5
RACE 7: KERRY BOY (#9)
This is one of the most confusing races on the card, and one that seriously complicates an already daunting Pick-6 sequence. My primary opinion is that I don’t want the Finger Lakes horses. I think all of them are traps. Dynamax Prime had gone badly off form when last seen on the NYRA circuit. Some will be encouraged that he’s actually won again, but I suggest you look up the past performances of the horses he’s beaten. Lion Sleeps has run against better competition, but he’s been greatly aided by slow paces in those races, and he faces a much more difficult pace scenario this time. I think Three to Thirteen is strictly the one to beat. I know the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, but this horse is faster than today’s rivals and should be able to clear off in front under an aggressive rider. The fact of the matter is that his recent efforts in dirt routes are all strong enough to win this race, and he’s especially dangerous when able to dictate terms up front. I believe he deserves to be the favorite in this race, and I nearly made him my top selection. I only placed him second because there’s a horse in this field that may get lost in the shuffle whom I want to highlight. Kerry Boy goes out for low-profile connections, and some may dismiss him on those grounds. However, this gelding has actually run some competitive speed figures at this level very recently. He ran deceptively well to be fourth on Sep. 29 when compromised by a wide trip against a rail bias. He was then hindered by a slow pace when attempting to close on Nov. 9. I don’t want to hold his last race against him since he was badly overmatched against open company. Now he’s dropping to the right level and turning back to an appropriate distance. If a strong pace develops up front, he could pick them all up late at a generous price.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,4,5,6
Trifecta: 1,9 with 1,9 with 2,3,4,5,6