by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 2: 6 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 3: 1 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 4: 6 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 5: 5 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 6: 4 - 8 - 2 - 1
Race 7: 6 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 8: 6 - 11 - 2 - 7
RACE 1: RIGHT ON (#2)
Midnight Disguise is likely to go off favored here, assuming that she actually runs back on six days’ rest. She earned a speed figure in her debut that
suggests she’s simply faster than this field, but that was run at one mile, and now she’s being asked to cut back in distance to six furlongs. She
seemed like a bigger filly that took a while to find her best stride, so I’m not sure that this shorter trip will suit her. Linda Rice and Irad Ortiz have
been winning at an impressive rate, so she must be respected, but I want to look elsewhere for value. My top selection is Right On, who is probably
finding herself back at the right class level after tackling tougher foes last time. She was never going to be competitive against Strategic Dreams and
Wall of Compassion, who were both dropping out of the Grade 1 Frizette, but she nevertheless stayed on well for third. Taking a broader view of her
entire body of work, she’s obviously been overmatched in many of her races, but nevertheless has run well both times that she’s been entered at a
realistic class level. If she runs back to the speed figure she earned two back when breaking her maiden, she is very much in the mix here. I’ll use her
with Rapid Route, who has a right to improve in just her third start, and Tarawa, who also gets some needed class relief.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,6
RACE 3: UNREPENTED (#1)
Land Mine and Literata figure to vie for favoritism in this spot. The former has more upside, as she’s only raced five times, and has won both of her
starts routing on dirt. Literata is more of a known commodity, but her speed figures are consistent and you can usually rely on her to run well
enough to win races at this level. If I had to choose between the two, I’d probably have to give Land Mine the edge, given her tactical speed and
effective turn of foot, which was on display last time. Furthermore, horses have come back out of that Nov. 8 race to run well. Third-place finisher
Frost Wise won her next start, improving her TimeformUS Speed Figure by 16 points, while fourth-place finisher Gobi also returned to win, running
12 points faster. I obviously respect these two runners, but I want to take a small shot against them with Unrepented, who may get overlooked in
the wagering here. On her best day, Unrepented is capable of running speed figures that put her within striking range of the two favorites, and she
clearly handles this one-mile distance, having finished in the money in 12 of 13 starts at this trip. She’s raced sparingly over the past year and her last
two runs have been lackluster, but I think she may be set for a better effort here. Racing first off the claim for Robertino Diodoro last time, she was
sluggish and just may not have been fully fit. After all, she had only gotten one turf sprint – where she barely lifted a hoof – under her belt between
March and December. Over the past five years, Diodoro is 14 for 40 (35 percent, $2.13 ROI) second off the claim with horses that are also racing
second off a layoff on the dirt.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4
Trifecta: 1 with 2,4 with ALL
RACE 4: BLAME US ALL (#6)
Bobby On Fleek is obviously the horse to beat as he drops in class and switches into Rudy Rodriguez’s barn. However, he’s exiting Chad Brown’s
stable, so it’s not as if this is some kind of trainer upgrade. Furthermore, I’m not sure how good Bobby On Fleek really ever was, given that his one
standout speed figure on March 24 has not held up to scrutiny. He must be used, but I think he’s vulnerable at a short price. I’m trying to beat him
with Blame Us All, who turns back in distance and drops in class. I know that this horse handled a route when winning his second start at Parx back in
May, but he has not been finishing strongly in his more recent route efforts, leading me to believe that a turnback may be just what he needs. I
prefer him to the other alternatives, Thirst for Victory, who beat a weaker group last time, and Katalox, who may not want to go this far.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,7
RACE 6: DOINWHATSHELIKES (#4)
The probable favorite in this spot is Arewehavingfunyet. She can certainly win this race, but she had everything her own way up front when beating
Maddizaskar last time, and I’m not convinced that she has much of an edge over that foe. Furthermore, while Gary Gullo is having a strong meet,
he’s claimed this mare from Michelle Nevin, so I’m not sure we can expect improvement. That said, I prefer both of these contenders to the other
runner likely to take money, Marnesia Big Girl. I know her connections are winning everything lately, but she beat a pitiful field last time and gets
tested for class here. My top selection is Doinwhatshelikes, but I’m going to need a fair price before considering betting her, because there are some
obvious drawbacks. Her last race was awful and she’s now racing for a trainer that seldom wins on this circuit. However, there was moisture in the
track last time and this mare obviously despises wet going. Furthermore, six furlongs is a bit too short for her and she should be much more
comfortable going this one-turn mile. She should have gotten fitness out of that race after two layoffs leading into that effort, and I think it’s
reasonable to expect improvement here. Her prior races would beat this field.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,6,8
Trifecta: 4 with 2,8 with 1,2,6,8