by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   5 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 1:   7 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 1:   4 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 1:   3 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 1:   1 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 1:   1 - 6 - 7 - 4
Race 1:   1 - 7 - 3 - 9
Race 8:   7 - 2 - 4 - 8

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 1: SPRING FOR MORE (#5)
Thirst for the Cup would obviously trounce this field if she were to produce one of her better efforts, but that prospect seems highly unlikely given her recent form. It’s true that she’s been overmatched in a few races, but she’s been a shadow of the horse we saw over the summer. I also have concerns about the probable second choice, Flick of an Eye. She ran a competitive speed figure when winning at this level last time out, but she hasn’t raced in nearly three months since that victory. Furthermore, that win looks less impressive in retrospect, since runner-up Arewehavingfunyet has not run nearly as well in subsequent starts. This race is essentially begging me to look for an alternative, and the best one that I can find is Spring for More. The best thing you can say about this filly is that you know what you’re going to get. She’s been posting fairly consistent speed figures since the summer and runs well at this one-mile distance. Furthermore, Spring for More is finally dropping in class to face the softest field she’s met in quite some time. If Thirstforthecup and Flick of an Eye fail to produce their best form, she seems most likely to take advantage, and the price should be fair.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4

 

RACE 4: PROFESSOR SNAPE (#3)
Bobby On Fleek seems likely to go off as the favorite as he returns on short rest after beating a cheaper field just seven days ago. Rudy Rodriguez does not have great second off the layoff statistics, and my feeling is that this horse will be a bad bet as the favorite here. The obvious alternative is Curtis, who is the only other runner in the race to have earned speed figures as high as the favorite has run. Curtis has been in excellent form since Gary Gullo took over his training, and he figures to play out as the main speed breaking from the rail under Paco Lopez. I certainly respect him, but I want to take a shot against both of these horses with Professor Snape. I know that he looks a bit slower than the aforementioned two, but this barn change intrigues me. While it’s true that, in general, you want to stay away from horses that were claimed away from Linda Rice, Antonio Arriaga has done surprisingly well with limited runners at this meet. Most notably, the last three horses that he’s sent out in New York have significantly outperformed expectations. Just over a month ago, his runner Dogtown crushed a field at odds of 34-1. Two weeks ago, Sand City, a claim-away from Danny Gargan, ran a good third despite moving up in class by over 50%. And the one that really caught the eye was last Friday’s fifth race winner Arbitrator, who ran a career-best speed figure off a claim away from top trainer Christophe Clement. This enormously confident jump in class from a $14,000 claimer to this $50,000 level would seem to suggest that a vastly improved performance is expected out of Professor Snape.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5

 

RACE 5: NAVY COMMANDER (#1)
If All Clear runs back to his debut effort, the others in this field may not be able to beat him. He was well supported that day, getting bet down to 3-1 odds, and he ran to that backing. However, as fast the race came up, he was beating a pretty weak field. I think he’s dangerous, but others will offer better value. The runner that I want to bet is Navy Commander. There is not that much true early speed in this field, and Navy Commander has been very quick out of the gate in all of his races. If there’s a rider that can exploit such an early advantage, it’s Paco Lopez. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners on or near the lead, and I expect Navy Commander to bet sent from the rail. It took this horse a few starts to figure things out, but I really liked his most recent race at Parx. He got involved in an early duel with the eventual runner-up, had to ease back off that foe while in tight quarters on the turn, and then came back on to beat him in the stretch. That second-place finisher, Jack Straight, subsequently returned to win his next start with a fast speed figure.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4,5

 

RACE 6: CINDERELA EL CROME (#1) / POP THE HOOD (#6)
The two runners likely to attract the most attention here are Polar Jet and Tommy T. Of the pair, I prefer Tommy T, who has run competitive speed figures in all of his races, albeit against maiden company. However, I think both of these short-priced horses don’t have much margin for error, and there are some others in here that figure to offer much better value. One of those horses is Pop the Hood. We haven’t seen this gelding since August, but he runs well fresh, and is as fast as Tommy T on his best day. He appears to be working well for his return and could slip through the cracks with so many more obvious choices. He’ll be on my tickets, but my top pick is Cinderela El Crome. This horse routinely outran his odds for the previous low-percentage connections, and now gets claimed by Danny Gargan. Over the past five years, Gargan is 18 for 48 (38 percent, $3.43 ROI) first off the claim in dirt races at Aqueduct. I expect to see significant improvement from this 3-year-old.

Win: 1
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 1,6 with 1,3,4,6,7

 

RACE 8: THIS CAT CAN FLY (#7)
Big Thicket is clearly the one to fear as he makes his first start off the claim by Linda Rice. However, she’s getting this horse from the highly capable Brad Cox barn, so I’m not sure how much improvement we can reasonably expect to see. Linda has pretty decent numbers with stretch-outs like this, but this runner’s only race at this distance was one of his worst performances. Given a short price, I’m mildly against him. I think we need to get a little more creative, so I’m taking a shot with This Cat Can Fly. At first glance, he looks like nothing more than a turf horse. However, I’m wondering if he just improved with the stretch-out in distance last time, rather than the surface switch. This horse is bred to handle route distances, being by Birdstone out of a Cat Thief mare. He got going too late in his first couple of sprint starts on dirt over the summer. He returned four months later to run an improved race on grass, but he didn’t appear to be relishing that surface. Now he gets a needed drop in class as he tries a route distance on the dirt.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,4,5,8