PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 2:   2 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 3:   5 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 4:   7 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 5:   4 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 6:   1 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 7:   3 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 8:   9 - 4 - 3 - 6

PLAYS

RACE 1: BIG LITTLE RISK (#2)
It’s hard to get too enthusiastic about the chances of Damilano at a very short price, and he does figure to be a substantial favorite after the scratch of main rival Brew Pub. Damilano hasn’t had as many chances as Brew Pub, but he also hasn't run that fast in most of his dirt starts. He didn’t get the most comfortable trip in his return from the layoff last time. He was off a bit slowly and had to alter course briefly in upper stretch. Ultimately he was second best to the winner, but he has a right to move forward. If the favorite loses it’s likely to come at the hand of a speedy rival who can shake away from this field. I believe that might be Big Little Risk. At first glance he looks inferior to the two favorites, but there are some reasons to forgive his recent dirt losses. He set a very fast pace in his first start off the claim going a mile two back, and actually did well to hang on for fourth. Prior to that he was hampered by a poor start at Saratoga. He ran his career-best dirt race over this course last year, and Heman Harkie figures to be aggressive from the start.

Win: 2
Exacta Box: 2,3

RACE 4: WHAT’S MY CATEGORY (#7)
The scratch of likely favorite Alfie Solomons changes this race considerably. His primary pace rival was going to be Hoopla, and now that rival could have the early lead to himself. He actually ran deceptively well first off the claim for Robert Falcone last time, surviving a very fast pace that ultimately fell apart. He’s won both of his prior starts for a tag, each of them dirt sprints, and he may just be dropping back down to an appropriate level. I was originally anticipating a pace collapse, but that seems less likely with Alfie Solomons withdrawing. Horses like Dee Bo and Conformist could still press the issue early, but I don't think the pace will be as fast as it originally figured to be. My top pick is What's My Category. This Finger Lakes-based runner definitely has his flaws, and I admit that I was more enthusiastic about him given the original pace scenario. It took him 18 tries to break his maiden, but he finally did so earlier this fall, and it seems that he’s actually improved since then. That performance two back, in which he wore down heavy favorite Purple Hearted to earn a 94 TimeformUS Speed Figure, gives him a legitimate chance here. I’m not concerned about his return to Aqueduct last time, since he was placed too ambitiously against much tougher claiming foes. This is a more appropriate level, and I also don’t mind the turnback, since he’s been successful sprinting in the past. He's been successful as a closer recently, but he's pretty versatile and can adapt to whatever pace scenario develops.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,5