by David Aragona
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Racing is off the turf. All picks are for dirt.
Race 1: 7 - 11 - 12 - 2
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 3: 1 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 4: 5 - 7 - 8 - 1
Race 5: 4 - 3 - 9 - 8
Race 6: 7 - 4 - 9 - 6
Race 7: 7 - 4 - 8 - 2
Race 8: 3 - 16 - 15 - 14
Race 9: 7 - 3 - 5 - 10
RACE 4: MUTAKAAMIL (#5)
Expected favorite Fast Break narrowly lost at Monmouth in both career starts, but he earned a pair of strong TimeformUS Speed Figures. He broke well in that 6-furlong debut and showed good speed before fading without a major excuse. He was more conservatively ridden last time and appeared to have the eventual winner collared at the eighth pole before giving it up late. Therefore, this turnback to a one-turn event should be ideal. I’m not against him, but there are others to consider. His main rival figures to be Kid Bourbon, who improved to earn a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure second off the layoff when stretched out to this distance. He finished well behind winner Communicator that day, but that rival appears bound for stakes. If he continues to progress, he’s certainly a top contender, though it’s not as if he’s getting any class relief her. My top pick Mutakaamil has yet to live up to his excellent pedigree – by top sire Tapit out of a stakes-winning dam who is a half-sister to Breeders’ Cup Marathon winner Eldaafer. Given all of those route influences, it’s reasonable to expect that he’ll appreciate this added ground as he streches out to a mile. He pretty green first out as a 2-year-old, but showed improvement in his second start, closing well behind subsequent stakes winner Mihos. He obviously disappointed in his return to the races, but that affair was dominated towards the front end and he was only hitting his best stride in deep stretch. I'm hoping that he's sharper second off the layoff, especially with the addition of blinkers.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,7,8
RACE 5: H MAN (#4)
This New York-bred claiming event is one of the most interesting handicapping puzzles of the day. The two runners drawn to the outside figure to vie for favoritism. Sudden Surprise arguably put forth the best last-out performance when finishing third in a similar spot in November. However, he was aided by a speed-favoring racetrack that day, so the performance may not be as strong as it seems. Just take a look at Jewel Can Disco’s effort in that same race to see how much front-runners were aided by the track profile. We Should Talk seems a bit more dangerous as he drops in class. The last time he ran on dirt also happens to be the last time he competed at this level, and he finished a strong second to Five Star Bunt. A repeat of that performance would make him a major player here, but it’s also no guarantee that he’ll hold his form, since his dirt efforts have generally been fairly inconsistent. I think we can get a bit more creative in this spot and I’m interested in a pair of runners who figure to be better prices. One of those is San Juan Diego. His current form looks pretty poor compared to some others, but you can make some excuses for him. He was facing stronger fields when he was last seen in New York and then he had to face some tougher open company claiming fields out of town after that. I’m intrigued by the fact that he was taken out of his last race by strong claiming trainer Ray Handal especially since he’s been spotted appropriately in his return to the NYRA circuit. I’ll use him prominently, but my top pick is H Man. This 7-year-old had been in career form for Jason Servis through the first half of the year, as he built on his prior good form for Jeremiah Englehart back in 2018. For whatever reason, things fell apart immediately after the claim by Gary Contessa, and he steadily dropped down the class ladder. Yet, now he’s been claimed by another barn that tends to do well and improve horses over time. Orlando Noda not only claimed this horse, but is confidently moving him back up in class to this $25,000 level. While the Noda barn is just 1 for 10 off the claim since they started out, 5 of those hit the board and most outran their odds. The positive rider switch to Joel Rosario is a good sign, and I think we’re going to see an improved effort out of this old pro.
Win: 4
Exacta Box: 3,4,9
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,6,8
RACE 6: DANGEROUS EDGE (#7)
Expensive yearling purchase Bourbon Bay did everything but win first time out. He broke about two lengths behind the field, and steadily advanced on the backstretch, getting himself into a contending position by the quarter pole. He ultimately had dead aim at the leader and just couldn’t quite forge past after those early exertions to overcome his poor start. Hennig has better debut stats than he does second time out, but the slight cutback to 6 furlong likely helps. This colt should be pretty tough for these handle if he breaks cleanly this time, but I just have some reservations about the overall quality of that debut field. I have no such concerns about the race that his main rival Dangerous Edge exits. Dangerous Edge took money in his debut, but lacked fitness that day while no match for Grad 1 Champagne winner Tiz the Law. However, he has progressed with each start since, most recently finishing second in a solid maiden special weight event at Belmont. The winner Scilly Cay returned to earn a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure when second in a stakes next time, and third-place finisher Chestertown returned to win on Sunday with a 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He looks like the main rival for Bourbon Bay among those with experience, and I think he might have the slight edge based on that last performance. Others to consider include second time starter Whichwaytomalibu, who was somewhat compromised by a lack of pace in his June debut. He’s been gelded since then and has a right to do better given his pedigree. I’d also use first time starter Superego, who sports an excellent Chester and Mary Broman pedigree on the dam’s side and worked a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds a the OBS Sale in April.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,6,8,9
RACE 8: DANNY CALIFORNIA (#3)
With racing taken off the turf on Thursday, this becomes a completely different race. However, I’m sticking with the same top pick that I would have chosen in a turf event. I’ll get to that horse momentarily. The focus of the wagering public will probably shift to the Main Track Only runners now that this race is being contested over dirt. Pipies and Playwright look like the two strongest contenders among those. The former may inherit the favorite’s role after finishing second to the highly regarded Turbulence at the same level last time. He didn’t have any excuse to lose that race, other than the fact that he simply ran into a better horse, as he was racing up close to a relatively slow pace and was in position to win. He clearly improved off the claim by Rudy Rodriguez and he’ll be tougher if he continues on that trajectory. Playwright is a bit more difficult to read as he was never a serious threat when closing to be third sprinting upon returning from a layoff last time. The stretch-out in distance figures to help him, but his form from earlier in the year was alarmingly inconsistent. His best effort clearly makes him good enough to win, but there’s some question as to whether or not we’ll see it. My aforementioned selection, on either surface, is Danny California.This gelding made his first start off the claim for the Orlando Noda barn last time and he actually ran a lot better than his finishing position would indicate. He raced as a closer that day and was thus badly compromised by a lack of pace in that race. Furthermore, that disadvantage was compounded by the fact that the kickback situation on the main track was very detrimental to closers during that racing week, helping the first two finishers. While Danny California was intended to race on turf, his dirt form is actually superior to his grass résumé. If he runs back to the effort that carried him to victory against claiming foes at Belmont in October, he’s going to be a handful for the two aforementioned Main Track Only runners.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 14,15,16
Trifecta: 3 with 15,16 with 12,14,15,16