by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 2: 2 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 3: 7 - 2 - 1A - 4
Race 4: 1 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 5: 2 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 6: 8 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 7: 3 - 4 - 7 - 6
Race 8: 5 - 2 - 6 - 1A
RACE 5: SPLIT VERDICT (#2)
Of those with experience, Racing Raven is likely to attract the most support. This Repole Stable homebred broke a tad slowly in his debut and made up a bit of ground late to finish fifth. He’s the horse to beat off that performance. But of those who have run, I actually prefer the more seasoned St. Augustine. I think this colt has more ability than he’s been displaying in the afternoons, and he hinted at that again last time when making his first start with blinkers. He got away a length or two behind the field but quickly rushed up into contention before becoming rank when unable to make the lead. Provided he breaks cleanly here, I’d like to see Martin Garcia send him so that he can get a clear run throughout. He’s certainly one to use, but my top pick is actually a first-time starter.
Split Verdict has all the makings of a good horse. He’s a full sibling to multiple sprint-stakes winner Sweet On Smokey, a $465,000 earner, and his second dam was the brilliant Danseuse, a sparkling winner of both of her career starts at Belmont in 1996. Split Verdict showed some of that speed when he worked two furlongs in 21 1/5 seconds at the OBS sale last year. He’s sent out by a barn that knows how to win with debut runners, including those who take significant money. Over the past five years, Rick Violette is 7 for 19 (37 percent, $2.18 ROI) with first-time starters on dirt at NYRA tracks who go off at less than 3-1 odds.
Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 3,5,6,7
Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,3,5 with 2,3,5,6,7
RACE 6: MOJITO MARGARITA (#8)
City of Dreams is the horse to beat, but you have to wonder why it’s taken her 90 days to run back after her debut win in early November. While she was a visually impressive winner that day, the pace of that race was quite slow (indicated by blue color-coding in TimeformUS PPs), which gave her a significant advantage. This time, she is likely to face early pressure from both Rapid Route and Dreams Are Pazible to her outside. I’ll use her defensively, but I think others will offer better value.
My top selection is Mojito Margarita. This filly ran a competitive speed figure when winning her maiden two back. That day, she showed good early speed and gamely held sway after contesting an honest pace. Her next start is a bit puzzling, as she was never involved as the 9-5 second choice. Jockey Irad Ortiz seemed to sense that she wasn’t herself that day, since he barely motivated her at any point and essentially eased her before they reached the quarter pole. I’m going to hope that Rudy Rodriguez has gotten whatever was bothering her figured out, as she now returns with blinkers added. If she can get back to her prior performance, she’s a major threat.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,5
RACE 7: FULL HOUSE (#3)
The two main players are exiting the same race on Dec. 16 that was won by the talented filly Boule. That pair, Tasteful and Full House, are likely to go off at similar prices, yet I strongly prefer the Jimmy Jerkens trainee. Unlike Tasteful, who had a great trip with no excuses, Full House encountered some minor issues. She’s a speedy filly who figured to be on the lead last time. However, she bobbled significantly at the start, which cost her any chance to make the front. From there, she had to rate in behind horses and alter course to find room at the top of the stretch. All things considered, I thought she did well to get up for second. Now she again finds herself in a race that doesn’t feature a ton of early speed, and I think Junior Alvarado can take advantage of the situation. Her primary early-pace rival could be Colorful Charades, a wild card in this field. She may have needed her return last time, but I’m starting to wonder if she can ever recapture the speed she showed in her debut as a 2-year-old. Nevertheless, I’ll throw her in at a price. (Update: Tasteful was entered back in another race on Saturday, and is a likely scratch from this spot.)
Win: 3
Trifecta: 3 with 4,6,7 with 4,5,6,7
RACE 8: NYROMANIAC (#5)
Jurere figures to be a heavy favorite in the finale. The field she faces in her debut is grievously lacking in quality. That’s illustrated by the fact that Northernstreetgal, a 10-race maiden who has thrice lost in cheaper spots at Laurel, was installed as the morning-line second choice. Linda Rice actually does well in this situation. Over the past five years, Rice is 4 for 7 (57 percent, $3.98 ROI) with first-time starters in maiden-claiming dirt routes. Jurere may win this race, but this is the kind of spot that could produce some strange results.
One horse who intrigues me at a square price is Nyromaniac. She’s lost all of her races by double-digit margins, but she’s one of the few runners in this field who has at least had some excuses. She was sawed off badly at the start three back on Dec. 17, and her fourth-place finish on Jan. 14 was not quite as poor an effort as the speed figure would suggest. Last time out on Jan. 27, she did not run well. However, the main track may have been strongly favoring horses racing on the rail at that point in the day, and Nyromaniac was wide throughout. Now she adds blinkers, which makes me somewhat hopeful that she can flash some of the speed she showed in her debut.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,6