by David Aragona
Small fields abound on Thursday’s card at Aqueduct, but there are nevertheless some talented horses in a few of these races, as well as some viable betting opportunities throughout the day. The 5th race features the winner of one of the fastest sprints that we’ve seen run in New York all winter. Westwood registered a dominant victory when last seen on Jan. 20, running 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:15 4/5 seconds, earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 105 and a TimeformUS Speed Figure of 126. He’s going to have to deal with the early speed of Still Krz in this spot, but a repeat of hist last performance should have him bound for stakes company soon. Two races after that display of speed, we’ll see high-class optional claiming runners test their stamina going 1 1/4 miles in the 7th race. Below, I take a look at that event, as well as a few others on this card.
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 4 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 2: 5 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 3: 2 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 6 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 5: 4 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 6: 6 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 7: 5 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 8: 2 - 6 - 7 - 5
RACE 1: FOR HONOR (#4)
Christmas Sky figures to go off as a heavy favorite following her runner-up finish at this level on Jan. 19. That day, she finished more than six lengths clear of the third-place runner and defeated today’s rival Hexameter by 11 lengths. However, that performance may have been aided by the nature of the racetrack. Jan. 19 was a day that seemed to be favoring runners with inside position, and both Christmas Sky and the winner, Reckless Humor, rode the rail for the majority of the race. Even if she regressed to her prior win against claiming company in December, she would still be a top contender in this race, but I don’t think she necessarily deserves to be such a short price. I’m taking a shot against her with For Honor, who moves up in class following a win just last week. That was her first start off the claim for Linda Rice, who had to wait nearly four months to get this filly back to the races after acquiring her. Yet the fact that she’s now running her back on such short rest seems like a positive sign. Over the past five years, Rice is 5 for 12 (42 percent, $2.37 ROI) with horses coming off wins and running back on nine days’ rest or shorter on dirt. For Honor showed promise as a 2-year-old but has been plagued with issues that required a series of layoffs since then. If Rice has finally got her on track, it’s certainly plausible that she could challenge the favorite.
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 1,2,5
RACE 2: PROLETARIAT (#5)
This race features another short field, but each runner brings credentials to win at this level. Joy Drive is a worthy favorite as he drops in class out of tougher spots at Laurel. He performed admirably in his first start off the layoff two back and then had the misfortune of running into the very talented Lewisfield, who appears bound for stakes, in his most recent start. This horse has run well in each of his dirt starts, and it seems like Linda Rice is just placing him at a realistic level. I’m less enthusiastic about the second choice on the morning line. Fillet of Sole is a plodder who really needs his races to fall apart late like his race two back at Gulfstream. That seems unlikely to happen here given the lack of speed signed on. I’m trying to beat both of these horses with Proletariat. Returning from a 10-month layoff last time out, this gelding ran much better than it appears. Jan. 20 was a day that was favoring runners who rode the rail, and Proletariat was chasing the pace three wide. He made a strong move to the lead at the quarter pole, but his earlier efforts took their toll late. He figures to move forward off that effort, just as he improved in his second start off a similar layoff at this time last year.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4
RACE 6: SEETHISQUICK (#6)
If Go Big Or Go Home can repeat his most recent race – his first on dirt – he is very likely to win. However, that came against a fairly weak group of $20,000 claimers and now he moves up in class. His main rival is Strong Side, who has held his own against some tougher maiden special weight fields, but he must prove that he can handle a sprint distance after making 11 straight starts at a mile or farther. Both of these runners have their flaws, so I’m taking a shot with Seethisquick at a much better price. These are not connections that I would typically want to bet, but I cannot deny that this horse has run well enough to be competitive in this race. Since he returned from a layoff in late 2017, he has run competitive speed figures in two of three starts. Last time, he finished far back and ran a slower race, but he was badly compromised by trouble on the backstretch and a wide trip around the far turn on a day that favored rail runners.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3
RACE 7: TESTOSTERSTONE (#5)
My primary objective in this race is to try to beat the likely favorite, Harlan Punch. While he’s run plenty of speed figures that make him fast enough to take down this field, I think he’s heading in the wrong direction after a tough series of races late in 2017. Furthermore, this horse is a one-turn specialist who has not run as well in his two-turn starts and probably wants no part of 10 furlongs. I think there will be value in beating him. The logical alternative is Turco Bravo, who finished ahead of the favorite in last month’s Jazil Stakes. While that performance would almost surely beat this field, it remains to be seen if he can repeat it. This venerable 9-year-old gelding has not been the most consistent sort over the past couple of seasons, but he is a three-time winner at this distance, whereas others are largely unproven racing this far. I think he’s the horse to beat, but I’m not enamored with the idea of betting him at a very short price. Moreover, there is a longshot who merits consideration. At first glance, Testosterstone’s recent form looks pretty dull. He’s been well beaten in a series of races since the summer while running slower speed figures than most in this field. Yet I think there are indicators that he’s starting to turn things around. His most recent effort in the Alex M. Robb Stakes was a better performance than it seems. The early pace was quite slow (indicated by blue color-coding in TimeformUS PPs), which favored wire-to-wire winner Control Group. Testosterstone was the only horse who was reserved far off that early pace, essentially giving him no chance to challenge for a top placing. Despite such a disadvantage, he was really running on through the stretch. He was chasing down the third-place finisher at the wire and galloped out strongly just after the finish. In recent years, stamina has been this gelding’s greatest weapon, and I think he’s going to relish this stretch-out in distance. If Emmanuel Esquivel can keep him closer to the early pace this time, I expect him to be charging at the wire.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 3,5 with 2,3,5 with ALL