PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 2:   1 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 3:   2 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 4:   1A/1 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 5:   1 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 6:   4 - 6 - 1 - 7
Race 7:   3 - 1A/1 - 6 - 5
Race 8:   4 - 2 - 7 - 1

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: PREDICTED (#5)

The Klaravich-owned, Chad Brown entry figures to go off at a very short price in this opener, as both runners can win. I prefer Systemic Change (#1), who showed good improvement in his first start back from a long layoff. He had to alter course when rallying in upper stretch and finished nicely to get up for third while no match for the top two. He’s dangerous if able to take another step forward. Reserve Currency (#1A) also makes sense off his last speed figure, but he was pretty one-paced in that affair and never looked like a serious threat to the winner. I’m not looking to support either of these runners at odds-on. Vodka Mardini (#3) is the most logical alternative, but he’s starting to run out of chances. He failed to step forward two back when finishing behind Systemic Change, and then couldn’t even hold off the win-shy American Law last time. Mistical Curlin (#2) would offer some appeal off his last race, but it’s hard to trust him to repeat it, and he’s also going to be a much shorter price than the 49-1 odds he was last time. I’m looking for a better price with Predicted (#5). He obviously didn’t run well when he returned in that common Dec. 15 race. However, the trip didn’t work out at all. He got squeezed back soon after the start, putting him out of position early. He proceeded to get rank moving down the backstretch while under tight restraint, fighting Eric Cancel. He was spent by the time he was asked for run and got eased through the lane. I expect a better performance second off the layoff, and I’m hoping Jose Gomez can be a little more aggressive with him from this outside draw.

WIN: #5 Predicted, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 7: WAR STOPPER (#3)

This race definitely loses much of its appeal after the scratch of likely favorites No Burn and Unbridled Bomber. Kinetic Sky (#6) might now inherit the favorite's role, and he figures to be forwardly placed as he stretches back out in distance to 9 furlongs, especially after No Burn's scratch. I’ve generally liked him going a bit shorter than this, but he did arguably run the best race when he tried two turns here back in October, only losing by a nose after a wide trip on a day when the inside may have been an advantage. My top pick is still War Stopper (#3). He’s stepping way up in class off a $25k claiming win last time, but that was an unusually strong race for the level. Runner-up Musical Heart had plenty of back class against stakes company, and War Stopper absolutely demolished that rival and all the rest by 9 lengths. The horses who have run back out of that race have generally improved in their next starts, including fifth-place Hammerin Aamer and seventh-place Grumps Little Tots, who both came back to win. War Stopper earned a competitive 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the performance and evidence points to that number perhaps being conservative. He now goes out first off the claim for Rob Falcone, who has trained this horse in the past. Falcone is 8 for 29 (28%, $2.80 ROI) first off the claim with last-out winners over the past 5 years.

WIN: #3 War Stopper, at 7-5 or greater

RACE 8: BUSTIN HOT (#4)

This finale is arguably the most wide open race on the entire card. I expect Lady Shylock (#1) to go favored based on her dominant debut score back in November, as she did earn a solid 80 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the performance. Yet that was just a $30k maiden claiming victory, so she still has much to prove as she steps up against winners for the first time. There are some others who want to be forwardly placed, but she does appear to be possess the best early speed, so I would expect her to go forward from this inside draw. Yet I think there are some others at better prices who are just as likely to be effective here. Pebble Lane (#2) didn’t earn much of a speed figure when she broke her maiden two back in October, but I liked the determination she displayed that day as she battled back along the rail after getting passed at mid-stretch. She then stepped up against a tougher field last time and was hardly disgraced, finishing second as the longest shot on the board despite working out a wide trip. A repeat of that performance makes her dangerous here, and David Duggan’s horses have been running well for the past year or so. Bustin Hot (#4) returns just 5 days after breaking her maiden last Saturday. She didn’t earn the fastest speed figure, but I liked the way she closed for the victory while racing wide over a racetrack that may have been slightly favoring inside runners. She showed some quality when checking in third against a tougher maiden special weight field two back, and generally seems to be heading in the right direction. Linda Rice has strong statistics with horses running back in a week or less, especially at Aqueduct, going 11 for 36 (31%, $2.27 ROI) with that move over the past 5 years.

WIN: #4 Bustin Hot, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 2