by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 2:   6 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 3:   7 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 4:   4 - 5 - 1A - 2
Race 5:   2 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 6:   7 - 6 - 3 - 8
Race 7:   4 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 8:   1 - 4 - 8 - 5

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 2: TEAM WIN (#6)
Fancy That is likely to go favored here after closing to be third in her second career start in early January. She was returning from a four-month layoff that day, so she had a right to need the race. After stumbling at the start, she really struggled to keep up with the pack. She rallied belatedly up the rail but was never a serious threat. While she certainly still has room for improvement, I’m not thrilled with what I’ve seen in either start, and I’d rather look for a slightly better price. The two most logical alternatives are second-time starters. Up At Dawn stretches out off a dull debut sprinting, but Mark Hennig has had his firsters ready to run recently, so I would have expected her to show more interest that day. I prefer Team Win, who returns just 19 days after finishing fifth in her initial start. While she did little running that day, she ran like she probably needed a race. Todd Pletcher typically isn’t sending young horses to debut in one-mile races in the middle of winter at Aqueduct because they’re ready to win first time out, so this filly will probably benefit from the experience. The fact that he named low-percentage rider Rafael Hernandez first time out comports with that theory. Therefore, I think it’s a positive sign that leading rider Manny Franco is named to ride today. Furthermore, Pletcher has solid numbers with this move. Over the past five years, he is 20 for 55 (36 percent, $2.10 ROI) with maiden second-time starters in dirt routes who also debuted routing.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,5
 

RACE 3: NEEDS NO ICE (#7)
Following the scratch of Dynamite Kitten, Sweet Like Char may end up going off as the favorite. This filly fits the race very well from a class perspective. She ran legitimately fast at Parx three back and would certainly beat this field were she to repeat that effort. I can excuse her performance two back since she was overmatched against starterallowance foes. Yet her last effort is difficult to explain. It is worth noting that she was dead on the board, and racing was canceled due to high winds right after they completed the race, but she still never lifted a hoof. I also have serious concerns about her getting this distance. I know she won her maiden going two turns as a 2-year-old, but that came against a very weak field. Instead, I’m taking a shot with Needs No Ice. Like scratched morning line favorite Dynamite Kitten, she is coming off a victory against New York-bred maiden-claiming company. The only difference is that she has run slower than the favorite. Yet I think there are some reasons to prefer this filly. Unlike some others in this field, her form appears to be on the upswing. She ran deceptively well two back after encountering trouble midway through the race, whereas Dynamite Kitten had a much smoother trip. Then last time, she overcame a slow pace and sloppy track while defeating the Rob Atras trainee Promise Me Roses, who has since reeled off two consecutive wins. The John Morrison barn has been firing well lately, having achieved six exacta finishes from just 10 starters at this meet.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,5,6
 

RACE 8: STORM PROPHET (#1)
A few entrants exit the seventh race on Jan. 12, which was also contested at this class level and distance. Mr. Dougie Fresh was the slight favorite and looked like a winner past the eighth pole before a resurgent Stoney Bennett reclaimed the lead at the wire. Mr. Dougie Fresh will be tough to beat if he merely repeats that performance, but he got a fantastic stalking trip that day in a race that seemed to favor those with a forward position. I prefer Allured out of that spot since he had to race through traffic and was closing best of all at the end. Chad Brown has good numbers when adding blinkers, and it’s a positive sign to see Manny Franco stay here rather than hop aboard Business Cycle. Nicodemus is an intriguing new face as he makes his first start since the Curlin Stakes last year. He was no match for Hofburg that day, but he stayed on gamely to be second in the slop while achieving a field-best 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He appears to be working well for his return, but Linda Rice does not have very strong numbers in this situation. I’m using all of these runners in some capacity, but my top pick is Storm Prophet. He’s likely to race as a solo betting interest since entrymate Blewitt is almost certain to scratch following his win last Sunday. That should drive up Storm Prophet’s price since he appeared to be the lesser half of the entry. He lost to today’s rival Gio d’Oro when they met last time out on Jan. 4, but Storm Prophet had the much tougher trip that day, racing wide around both turns. According to Trakus, he covered 56 more feet than Gio d’Oro, more than the margin of defeat. I like this turnback to a one-turn race for Storm Prophet, and Rudy Rodriguez has does extremely well in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 28 for 62 (45 percent, $2.80 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes at Aqueduct.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,8,11
Trifecta: 1 with 4,8 with 3,4,5,6,8,11