PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 2:   5 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 3:   2 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 4:   3 - 2 - 1A - 4
Race 5:   2 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 6:   5 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 7:   3 - 5 - 6
Race 8:   8 - 4 - 1/1A - 2

PLAYS

RACE 2: ARCHUMYBABY (#5)
Excess Capacity is arguably the horse to beat based on that 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned first off the claim last time out. While that performance came over a mile, she’s been just as effective sprinting so the turnback doesn’t figure to harm her. That said, it is a little worrisome that her last race is the only one in her past performances that makes her particularly formidable against this crew. Another runner who figures to attract some support is class dropper Lucy’s Town. She had a very successful season in 2019, winning 5 races while competing at a variety of Midwest tracks. All of those victories came for her previous trainer, who was winning at a 30% clip as of last fall. Her current trainer Kelly Breen does a fine job and Lucy’s Town arguably shown subtle improvement for him. She’s back at the right level now after facing tougher company in her last two starts, but her lack of early speed could be an issue here. My top pick is Archumybaby, who scratched out of a seemingly tougher spot last weekend to race here instead. This mare is admirably consistent, having won a third of 36 career starts while rarely putting in a poor effort. She has found optional claimers and starter allowance races to be a little tough for her, but her last four attempts in straight claiming races have all resulted in victories. She actually put in a decent effort last time after getting an awkward trip chasing along the rail against tougher foes. She seems to run for any barn and her tactical speed always ensures that she works out a decent trip. Furthermore, if it's a fight to the finish you know that she has a knack for getting her head down in a photo.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4,6
Trifecta: 5 with 2,3,4 with 2,3,4,6

RACE 5: WALKOFF (#2)
Proven Reserves may win this race, but his recent dirt form has been pretty disappointing. He was uncompetitive in a couple of starts over the summer and he merely picked up pieces last time when back on the dirt in a race where no one really showed up behind the first two finishers. It’s concerning to me that he’s totally lost the early speed that he once possessed. He’s also going to take money based on the Chad Brown factor and a superior turf speed figure two back. His main rival Promo Code at least has the tactical speed to work out a good trip in this race. However, his return from a layoff last December at Gulfstream was similarly disappointing. He chased the pace after briefly dueling for the lead, but had no answer in the stretch. I didn’t like that he failed to change leads through the lane that day, which doesn’t bode well for him stretching out in distance. Furthermore, Todd Pletcher doesn’t have great statistics with horses making their first starts for a tag. I’m far more interested in ex-Pletcher runner Walkoff, who I am elevating to my top selection after the scratch of Zealous. While some may be disappointed in his loss as the 7-5 favorite last time, he didn’t have the greatest trip that day. He got shuffled back when steadied immediately after the start. Then while advancing around the far turn he had to alter course multiple times before ultimately squeezing through on the rail in the lane. All things considered, I thought it was one of the best efforts of this horse's career. He's been claimed out of that race by the Brad Cox stable, and it's a good sign that this new barn is moving him up in class in his first outing for them. A one-turn mile seems like the ideal distance and I have confidence that he's heading in the right direction whereas the two favorites may be on the downswing.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,6,7
Trifecta: 2 with 1,6 with 1,5,6,7