by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 2: 8 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 3: 6 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 4: 7 - 3 - 5 - 8
Race 5: 3 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 6: 4 - 2 - 3 - 10
Race 7: 7 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 8: 3 - 9 - 5 - 2
RACE 4: EXCEED THE GOAL (#7)
Many of the contenders are coming off disappointing recent efforts, which inevitably makes morning-line favorite Jump for Joy all the more appealing. She has finished in the exacta in five straight starts, one of which came at today’s class level and distance. The only problem with her is that she hasn’t raced in more than seven months. Trainer Charlton Baker actually has relatively strong numbers off layoffs of this type, and this filly ran the best race of her career following an even longer gap in 2017. However, I still find her somewhat difficult to trust at a short price. I’m taking a shot with Exceed the Goal. This filly has gone off at some generous prices in recent starts, primarily due to her low-profile connections. However, her pair of sprint efforts at the $25,000 N2L level should translate quite well to this cheaper N3L spot. I won’t hold her loss to Mo Flash against her since that filly was in very good form at the time. I think Exceed the Goal has an excellent chance to win this race if she merely repeats her Nov. 29 performance. That day, she had to go five wide while making her move around the far turn before drawing off authoritatively. Some may be concerned about the prospect of a wet track on Thursday after her poor effort last time, but I think that loss can be attributed to distance rather than track condition.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,5,8
RACE 5: TIERGAN (#3)
Southern King and Beachside exit the same pair of races, with the former runner just edging out the Linda Rice trainee on both occasions. Southern King has clearly improved since moving into Todd Pletcher’s barn, but I thought he should have offered up a stronger finish last time after reaching contention in the stretch of the Damon Runyon. Beachside’s problem has been his lack of early speed, as he has dropped too far behind in both of his starts against winners. He finished fastest of all in each of those December races but just ran out of real estate. This time, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, as a few stretching-out sprinters should ensure that they’re moving quickly up front. While such a scenario works for both favorites, I’m not thrilled with taking either at a short price. Tiergan has earned speed figures that are significantly slower than those of the two aforementioned contenders, but I think he may be ready to take a step forward. This horse was visually impressive when he won his debut at Belmont last fall, albeit in a slow race. While that field seemed fairly weak at the time, Show Prince and Kaden’s Courage have since come back to run well against stakes company. Tiergan was thrown directly into some tough spots out of town, as he was asked to negotiate route distances against open company. Bill Mott wisely placed him back in New York-bred company last time, and I thought he ran better than the result indicates. That race was run over a speed-favoring surface and was dominated toward the front end. Tiergan clearly had some run coming around the far turn but was ridden into traffic approaching the quarter pole, costing himself valuable momentum. Now, he’s stretching back out to a mile, and I think he may be ready to handle it this time. He’s certainly bred to go this far as an Afleet Alex-sired half-brother to Sheriffa and Might Be.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 3,6 with 3,6 with 1,2,5
RACE 7: HIT IT ONCE MORE (#7)
Solid Wager is the horse to beat as he attempts to follow up on his Grade 3 Toboggan win with an optional-claiming victory. While he’s apparently the class of this field off that latest triumph, he must prove that he’s as proficient going a mile. This 11-time winner is 0 for 13 at today’s distance. Furthermore, he benefited from a fast early pace when he won the Toboggan and may have taken advantage of two rivals who were not quite at the top of their game. Skyler’s Scramjet has been vulnerable when asked to travel 7 furlongs, and Gold for the King seemed to react poorly to running back on short rest. I’m using this horse, but I think he’s a beatable favorite. Stan the Man seems to be the main rival after defeating a weaker group at 1 1/8 miles last time out. He put forth a respectable effort in the Cigar Mile two back, though the form of that race has not exactly withstood further scrutiny. I think a one-turn mile is the right distance for him, and he has run some of the field’s fastest speed figures, but I have yet to see him actually defeat a field of this quality. I’m using both of these runners, but I think this race is more wide open than it initially appears to be. The Pace Projector is predicting that as many as three horses could show speed. However, I think one in particular is well positioned to secure the most favorable trip. Hit It Once More drew very well, outside of runners like Exulting and Stan the Man. Neither of these is a need-the-lead type, so he should be able to angle over in front of them. Hit It Once More is always best when he can secure the lead, and Rafael Hernandez has ridden him effectively from gate to wire in the past. His most recent effort was much better than it seems given the fast pace, and I thought he did well to hang on until the final furlong. When he was in top form last time, he ran TimeformUS Speed Figures of 118 and 119, which are as good as any of his rivals in this field. Going all the way back to February 2018, he won a race over this track and distance with Hernandez up in front-running fashion. I expect him to receive a similarly aggressive ride once again, and a possible wet track should only aid his cause.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,4,5,6
Trifecta: 6,7 with 6,7 with ALL
RACE 8: NOBODY MOVE (#3)
All of the horses in this race are dropping in class, as this $8,000 claiming race is the cheapest that has been run in New York recently. Its All Relevant figures to go favored as he makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice. Previous trainer Dominick Schettino handled this gelding very carefully, resisting the temptation to move him up in class despite the fact that he was winning races in dominant fashion. This horse has had trouble staying on the track, and clearly has some physical issues. Therefore, it’s not a good sign to see Linda Rice drop him immediately off the claim. Over the past 5 years, she is 6 for 14 (43 percent, $1.43 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming tag by 50% or more first off the claim. While that winning rate is impressive, all 6 of those winners were odds-on and the ROI reflects that. I think Its All Relevant is vulnerable, especially considering that the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. I suppose some will attempt to make the case for Big Thicket off the Jason Servis trainer switch, but it’s been a long time since this one has run competitively. Lion Sleeps was uncompetitive against tougher foes last time when he was shockingly dead on the board, going off at 30-1 off a morning line in the single digits. His better speed figures at Finger Lakes would make him formidable, but they don’t quite stand up to scrutiny. I’m taking a shot against these horses with Nobody Move. I realize that he has to run a bit faster to beat this field, but I don’t think he’s gotten ideal trips in either of his last two starts. He was unwisely sent through a tight spot on the rail two back before having to steady and alter course. That race was dominated on the front end by Big Guy Ian, as was his next start when Haul Anchor late from gate to wire. The pace of that Dec. 30 race was on the slow side, and Nobody Move had to wait for room on the far turn when apparently full of run. Any moisture left in the surface will help him, and I feel that he’s more reliable than the aforementioned contenders.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,5,9