by David Aragona
 

Thursday’s card puts the spotlight on New York-bred fillies and mares in the featured 7th race, the Biogio’s Rose at one mile. Frost Wise is the horse to beat off her narrow score in last month’s Bay Ridge, but she figures to face a stern test from the returning Holiday Disguise, last seen winning the Bouwerie as a 3-year-old in May 2017. Frost Wise may have the upper hand on this occasion as she cuts back to a one-turn mile, which is a better distance for her than the stamina-sapping 1 1/8 miles of her last start. Also, Linda Rice’s statistics with horses returning from lengthy layoffs in dirt routes are merely mediocre.

Earlier on the card, Rice has entered another filly making her first start following an extended vacation. Sounds Delicious won her last two races by a combined 20 lengths, but has not raced in nearly a year. At the time, she was running some fast speed figures for horses of her age group and seemed to be improving rapidly. We’ll find out if she has continued that progression as a four-year-old when she returns in Race 3.

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 2:   7 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 3:   1 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 4:   5 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 5:   3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 6:   7 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 7:   1 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 8:   2 - 6 - 3 - 1

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: MATINEE BABE (#2)
While Ouro Verde is clearly talented enough to win races at this level, she has not shown much resolve to do so. In fact, she rarely so much as passes another horse in the stretch. This is just not the kind of favorite I would touch at a short price. The only alternative whom I can make a reasonable case for is Matinee Babe, the second choice. This filly possesses early speed and will surely be sent to the front under a typically aggressive Paco Lopez. That alone could be enough to put her in the winner’s circle. After all, Ouro Verde showed some reluctance to go by this filly the last time they met Nov. 22, when the two were dueling for second-place at this level. Matinee Babe has raced primarily on turf, but I would assert that her dirt races are not substantially worse than her surrounding turf efforts. Furthermore, she handled a sloppy track last time and is likely to again encounter a wet surface Thursday.

Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 5,6

 

RACE 4: LOVE THAT JAZZ (#5)
Summer Bourbon is the horse to beat off the strength of his allowance win at the end of 2017. Dec. 29 was a day that favored horses racing toward the rail, and Summer Bourbon was two to three wide throughout. Some may view it as a negative sign that Chris Englehart is running him for a tag off that win, but I think he’s just placing him where he belongs. Eddie’s Gift is also likely to attract support, but he’s been facing softer company in recent starts at Finger Lakes and is hard for me to endorse, even considering the trainer switch to Linda Rice. Instead, I’m landing on Love That Jazz, who gets some needed class relief after facing tougher optional-claiming rivals in his last start. This is a speed horse who does his best running on the front end, and his chances were compromised in that Jan. 15 race when he was unable to outrun Jewel Can Disco to the early lead. This time, the Pace Projector is indicating that he’s a bit faster than pace rival For Pops, and a situation favoring runners on or near the lead is predicted. If Manny Franco can get Love That Jazz away from the gate cleanly and put him on the lead, I think he’ll prove to be too fast for this bunch.

Win: 5
Trifecta: 5 with 4,6 with 3,4,6

 

RACE 5: LITTLEMISSBUSINESS (#3)
Daring Prospect looks like the fastest horse in this race based on her recent speed figures, and she’s dropping in class after easily beating a tougher field last time out. The problem is that each of her recent wins was aided by a strong rail bias. Dec. 29 was a day that was clearly favoring runners racing on the inside, and Jan. 26 was the most rail-biased racetrack we have encountered all winter at Aqueduct. I’m skeptical than she can reproduce those last two performances over a fair track. Littlemissbusiness becomes the obvious alternative. She has simply been facing far more talented runners ever since getting claimed by Mitch Friedman last fall. Last time out, she truly had no chance in an unusually strong edition of the Interborough Stakes. It’s possible that her form has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, but she is now dropping back to a realistic class level. I’m optimistic that this seven-time winner can earn another victory in this spot. Another runner to consider is Wildcat Belle, but she returns just 3 days after winning a race on Monday at Parx.

Win: 3
Trifecta: 3 with 1,2,4,6 with 1,2,4,6

 

RACE 6: DAVKA (#7)
Regalian seems likely to go off favored after running a surprisingly strong race in last month’s Jerome. He was aided by the slow pace of that race, which he was stalking, but he nevertheless held on well while just losing third late. That said, it’s not as if he ran that much better than Jerome rival Factor This, a closer who may have been hindered by the dawdling early pace. The one reservation I have about Factor This is that there isn’t much speed in this field either, so he may be compromised once again. I’ve decided to try a new face. The shipper likely to take the most money is Polar Outbreak, who ran a decent race when stretched out at Laurel last time. However, the horse who interests me most at a bigger price is Davka. I like the way this horse has progressed ever since being gelded midway through his 2-year-old season. He put in a vastly improved performance on Oct. 27 and followed that up with a gutsy win on Nov. 17 that is a much stronger effort than it appears. Breaking from the outside going two turns at Del Mar, Davka got hung out five wide around the first turn and raced four wide around the second turn. According to Trakus, he raced an average of 39 feet farther than the rest of the field. He traveled 38 feet farther than the runner-up, who returned to win his next start, improving both his Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures. There are still some negatives, however. He exits Peter Miller’s barn and moves into the stable of Mark Casse, who has poor numbers with trainer switches on the dirt. That said, this horse is going to be a square price, and he possesses the early speed to take advantage of a paceless situation.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,4,6