PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 2:   4 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 3:   5 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 4:   6 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 5:   2 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 6:   8 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 7:   2 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 8:   3 - 1 - 7 - 4
Race 9:   5 - 8 - 3 - 9

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: ICY STORM (#4)

After the scratch of legitimate contender Dee Bo, two horses could inherit favoritism and I'm not a fan of either. Zertz (#5) was against a track bias when he competed on Jan. 22, but his form for David Jacobson was mildly disappointing, as he was unable to replicate his Penn National performances on this circuit. Winning Drive (#7) is another who figures to take money. Anything from the Rob Atras barn merits respect right now, but his recent form hardly makes him a standout, and he could go favored here merely due to those potent connections. My top pick at a bigger price is Icy Storm (#4). This colt obviously has some distance questions to answer, having primarily competed in routes. Yet despite being a son of Keen Ice, he has much more of a sprint pedigree on his dam’s side, being a half-brother to G2-placed sprinter Top Gunner. Physically, he looks like a shorter, stockier type that should appreciate less distance. He didn’t appear to want any part of 9 furlongs last time, but he has prior form in Pennsylvania that makes him competitive here. Antonio Arriaga can be dangerous off the claim, and I don’t mind the rider switch to Katie Davis.

WIN: #4 Icy Storm, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 5: RADIO RED (#2)

Likely favorite Lifetime of Chance (#5) has run well in all 4 of his starts without winning, so you do have to be a little concerned that he’s developing a habit of settling for minor awards. He was beaten by some good foes in his first couple of starts, and obviously met a better field when he tried stakes company two back. Yet he was supposed to get the job done as the 7-5 favorite last time, and just appeared to hang in the late stages. Perhaps the cutback to 6 furlongs will benefit him, but he’s a little hard to take at a short price. I have even greater reservations about Miracle Mike (#3). This colt put in a decent late rally on debut to get up for second behind the highly touted Andiamo a Firenze last summer. However, the inside path seemed to be favorable over that June sloppy track, and he did ride the rail throughout. He subsequently failed to fire in a Saratoga maiden event and hasn’t been seen since. Todd Pletcher is 8 for 25 (32%, $1.35 ROI) with maidens off 150-300 day layoffs in dirt sprints over 5 years. I’d rather go for a bigger price with a runner that I think has more upside. Radio Red (#2) also debuted last summer and didn't show much behind subsequent stakes winner Arctic Arrogance. He was off for a few months after that, and returned last month, where he put in a slightly better effort. That January race featured a slow pace, and he did well to pass some tired rivals through the lane after racing greenly in the early stages. I get the sense we haven’t yet seen the best of this colt, and it’s a good sign that he’s now putting races back-to-back. He gets a rider upgrade to Dylan Davis and should be capable of better here.

WIN: #2 Radio Red, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 6: CAN’T BEAT ME (#8)

I’m squarely against Vive Bien (#1), who could take money as he returns from a layoff and drops in class. This horse had shown some talent early in his career, but he really went the wrong way last season and is now returning for Gary Sciacca, dropping to the lowest conditioned claiming level. He’s clearly had some issues staying on the track, and it’s not surprising when you review his races. He’s a big, heavy horse who may just struggle with physical issues that impede him from showing his talent. He’s also drawn a difficult rail post position with other speed drawn just to his outside. Naked and Famous (#5) figures to gun to the front after successfully utilizing front-running tactics to break his maiden last time. Yet he’s also a little tough to support given the expected dynamics. Jet Speed (#2) is a little more logical as he makes his first start off the claim for Charlton Baker, but he’s another who hasn’t had much success without the early lead. Many may view Ginnsu Warrior (#6) to be the logical closer, and I do think he makes plenty of sense in this spot. He put in a decent late run to get up for third on Dec. 31, and has some back races that would make him dangerous here. He’s also reunited with Dylan Davis, who has ridden him well in the past. Yet I’m more interested in Can’t Beat Me (#8) at what should be a bigger price. This gelding faced off against Ginnsu Warrior on Dec. 4 and finished just ahead of him despite encountering significant traffic trouble in the lane. He arguably would have won that race with a clear run. He then came back in another division of a Dec. 31 race at this level and put in a decent rally for fourth while facing the superior Amedeus Music. We also saw runner-up Braciole exit that race to win here last weekend. Can’t Beat Me now makes his first start off the claim for former Mark Casse assistant Jamie Begg. He figures to fly under the radar due to those low-profile connections, but he fits the race flow and is in better form than it appears.

WIN: #8 Can't Beat Me, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 2,6

RACE 8: TEMPERMENTAL (#3)

I won’t be surprised when Stone Creator (#1) wires this field off the layoff, but I’m a little reticent to take a short price on her. This filly showed plenty of promise when she was unveiled here last winter, and looked to be heading in the right direction after runner-up finishes in the Maddie May and East View. Yet she seemed to take a step backwards at Belmont in the spring, and subsequently went to the sidelines. She’s reportedly been doing better from a mental standpoint since the freshening, and Charlton Baker has solid statistics off layoffs of this type. Yet you’re still taking a short price on a horse who hasn’t raced in over 8 months and wasn’t performing to expectations when last seen. The obvious alternative is Carbon (#7), who looks to get back on track after a disappointing effort at this level on Jan. 6. Perhaps an inside trip over that sloppy track just didn’t agree with her, as her prior form was solid. Yet she’s still having trouble sealing the deal despite going off at short prices three times in a row. I prefer another runner from that Jan. 6 affair. Tempermental (#3) didn’t get much respect on the tote board that day, but she certainly outran her odds to finish fourth behind superior winner Kant Hurry Love. Perhaps it was just the sloppy track that woke her up, but she had given some hints that she had taken a step forward in her prior start against claiming company. It’s possible that she’s just wanted to sprint on dirt all along, and the addition of blinkers appear to have helped her focus. This is a softer field than last time and she’s one of the few horses in this field on the upswing. The price figures to be generous once again.

WIN: #3 Tempermental, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 9: BOYS CODE (#5)

Probable favorite October Bliss (#3) was simply overmatched in the first two starts of his career, though it’s not as if he ran that badly on either occasion. He was off slowly in his second start and made some mild late progress while tentatively ridden in one of the toughest NY-bred maiden races of last year. He then dropped to this level last time, where he was more competitive. Yet he failed to finish off that race after making an eye-catching move into contention at the quarter pole. Perhaps the distance got to him, even though he's bred to go this far. Linda Rice has strong statistics off the claim, but I’m not thrilled with the idea of taking a short price on this runner. I’d rather go for Who Me (#8), who figures to be longer odds merely due to the connections. He actually finished ahead of October Bliss in that Dec. 30 affair before he was overmatched in his first start off the claim for new connections last time. Yet he held his form well from a speed figure standpoint, and now drops back down to a realistic level. I think he’s the one to beat among the logical players, but there are others worth considering at bigger prices. My top pick is longshot Boys Code (#5). This grey gelding lacked speed and failed to make much of an impact in those first few sprints at Finger Lakes, though he was staying on best of all late in that Sep. 21 affair. That was also a strong race for the level, as a few horses returned to improve from that affair. He returned from a layoff last month on turf at Tampa, facing a tougher open company field. He didn’t show much affinity for the surface, but he did steadily keep pace through the wire, suggesting that the added distance was no problem. He’s bred to route as a half-brother to 2-time dirt route winner Vienna Code, and sire Boys at Tosconova is much more of a dirt influence. Mike Miceli has been in a slump, but he is 10 for 42 (24%, $3.76 ROI) first off a trainer switch over 5 years.

WIN: #5 Boys Code, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 8