by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 2 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 2: 3 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 3: 4 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 4: 5 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 5: 2 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 6: 7 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 7: 6 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 8: 3 - 1A - 7 - 4 - 1
RACE 4: STARRY ROSE (#5)
Getyourmindright is a deserving favorite in this spot after compiling a pair of runner-up finishes at Tampa Bay Downs last winter. He ran very well in both of those starts, speeding off to clear early advantages through fast fractions before settling for second in the lane each time. The 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned in his second start would make him formidable if he were to repeat that here. However, he hasn’t been seen since he faded in a turf stakes last March, and this barn does not have the strongest numbers off lengthy layoffs. Furthermore, he is likely to face challenges for the early lead, since both of Brian Lynch’s entrants possess early speed. His main rival Master Distiller also figures to be placed relatively close to the early pace. Some may view him as the best alternative to the favorite, but I’m skeptical of this runner’s quality. He has faced particularly weak fields in both of his starts and this is a significantly tougher spot. The problem with this race is that options are limited once you get past these two. Mintz is an intriguing new face as he returns from a lengthy layoff. He took a significant amount of money in his debut at Gulfstream last winter, so it’s possible that he may possess more ability than he showed that day. I’m using him, but I want to get a bit more creative and take a shot with first time starter Starry Rose. This 4-year-old filly is making her debut against males, which is not necessarily a positive or negative sign. The $30,000 yearling purchase price is fairly low for this pedigree, but I’m not sure how much that matters over two years later. This filly’s elderly dam is a half-sister to Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Silver Charm and she’s been a decent producer. While Starry Rose’s best sibling was turf horse Super Freaky, there have also been some dirt horses in her family. Most importantly, Bill Mott has a history of doing very well with horses like this. Over the past 5 years, he is 12 for 33 (36 percent, $4.59 ROI) with 3-years-old and up fillies making their debuts in dirt sprints. The raw times of some of Starry Rose’s recent workouts seem encouraging, including her Dec. 30 workout, apparently in company with allowance type Harkness.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4,6
RACE 5: SWEET LIKE CHAR (#2)
Some may perceive Free Kitty as the horse to beat since she’s already proven at this class level. However, she’s really best going a mile, so this turnback to 6 furlongs is of serious concern. While moves like this do work for some horses, Free Kitty has never been one that relishes passing horses, so I’m not convinced that she’s going to work out the kind of trip that she needs to be successful. Furthermore, I don’t like that she’s been a vet scratch twice since her last start. The one to catch is Science Fiction, who the Pace Projector is predicting will be out winging on the early lead in a scenario favoring the front-runner. She’s making her first start against winners after a facile maiden victory last time, but the margin of victory was exaggerated by the breakdown of her main rival on the far turn. She hasn’t run significantly faster than her main rivals and I think she’s getting a major class test. Party in the Sand would be appealing if not for the fact that the pace dynamics of this race are likely to work against her. She’s arguably in the best form of any of these, but she is a one-run closer who typically needs some help up front and she’s not going to get it. Given my reservations about the aforementioned fillies and mares, I’m taking a shot against them with Sweet Like Char. She possesses the early speed to keep Science Fiction honest early, and I think she’s going to appreciate this turnback. I realize that she broke her maiden going two turns, but she did so in a very slow race. Her return on Oct. 22 was undoubtedly the best effort of her career and that came in a one-turn sprint. The speed figure of that Parx race totally checks out, and she didn’t run as badly as it might seem last time when overmatched against starter allowance foes.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5,6
Trifecta: 2 with 4,5 with 1,4,5,6
RACE 6: QUESTEQ (#7)
This race is similar to the 5th in that I don’t fully trust many of the likely favorites. Courageous Queen seems like a short-priced runner to bet against in this spot. Todd Pletcher’s barn has been enduring a relatively slow last few weeks and this filly’s recent form appears to be tailing off. Two Hot Betty seems like a logical alternative after winning her first start off a 14-month layoff last time. While she was visually impressive that day, she was facing a pitiful field even for that cheap level. She did earn a respectable speed figure, but I feel that she’s going to be overbet on the class hike. Wilburnmoney is a more convincing contender. Despite racing for a lower claiming price last time, that was actually a tougher spot than this one. She has a right to be fitter in her second start off the layoff she has back form that would make her awfully formidable. I considered picking her on top, but she’s not the most reliable runner. I opted to go for a slightly better price with Questeq. This John Toscano trainee is not exactly consistent either, but I think she looks more appealing when you parse her form and highlight her sprint races. Whether on turf or dirt, she seems to do best in races at less than a mile. She worked out a decent trip in that Nov. 14 off-the-turf race, but she nevertheless earned a speed figure that would make her a serious contender in this spot. Some may be deterred by her poor performance last time, but that race was run over an extremely sloppy surface following a deluge. I think she’ll appreciate getting back on a fast track here and the slight class relief should also help.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,6
RACE 7: ZABAIONE (#6)
This is arguably the most interesting race on the entire card, as it features a brigade of hardened warriors heading into battle, making a full circuit of the Aqueduct main track. Among this field are a 10-year-old, a pair of 9-year-olds, and two 8-year-olds. Three have won at least 16 times. The shortest price of those runners is Peter’s Project, who is attempting to win his fourth consecutive start as he ships in from Finger Lakes. He is making his first start off the claim for new connections who have had success with these types of runners. I’m definitely using him, but I actually prefer the 16-time winner Broadway Bay, who finished just behind him last time. This Jeffrey Englehart trainee has been successful on the NYRA circuit, and I think he will benefit from the 9-furlong distance. He also figures to be a much more enticing price. A couple of the youngsters figure to attract support, with Calculated Risker likely to go off as the favorite. While his recent form has tailed off, he’s been running against significantly tougher company in those races and now is getting some serious class relief. Calculated Risker has handled this distance before and I think he’s the horse to beat. I’m using all of the aforementioned runners, but my top pick is Zabaione. His December return from the layoff was disappointing, but he may have needed that start. Additionally, a one-turn mile is just too short for him these days. This gelding requires two turns to be successful, and the 1 1/8-mile distance should be perfect for him. He ran speed figures that give him a big chance here back in the spring, so I think we’ll see a better effort out of him on this occasion.
Win: 6
Exacta Box: 2,4,6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,5,7
RACE 8: SWEET BLINDNESS (#3)
With little positive form to analyze, this is among the most inscrutable races on the card. I suppose the Tim Hills entry deserves to go favored, since both Pendolino and Ok Honey have their merits. I believe Pendolino is the stronger half of the pair, as she did well to get second while rallying inside last time after climbing in the early stages. It’s possible that she just moves up on a wet track, but I’m of the opinion that she’s merely improving with racing experience. The 7 furlongs should not hinder her and she may appreciate getting off the rail this time. I’m not enamored with the other short prices, including Kathy’s Cause, who had no excuse last time. Take It All Back has a right to do better after picking up pieces behind Pendolino, but I’d prefer to focus on those dropping in class. My top pick is Sweet Blindness. While she is exiting a seemingly slow Dec. 23 maiden special weight race, I believe she may have run better than the speed figure indicates. Two horses have already returned out of that spot to record faster figures, as runner-up Delta Gamma improved her TimeformUS figure by 22 points in her next start and fourth place finisher improved by 18 points next time out. Sweet Blindness was somewhat green while outrun early, but I thought she stayed on well to pass tired foes through the lane. The stretch-out to 7 furlongs may help her, as will the substantial class relief.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,7