by David Aragona
Tolerable temperatures have been restored to New York City as racing is set to recommence at Aqueduct. Thursday’s card begins with a series of seemingly straightforward wagering affairs. Heavy favorites Holland Park and All Clear look poised to rule the early double, before fellow short prices Preservationist and Stan the Man face off in a high-quality maiden special weight, which goes as the fourth race.
Sandwiched between those events, the Bay Ridge for New York-bred fillies and mares serves as the featured race on the card. As far as I can tell, Riot Worthy looks best equipped to negotiate the demanding 9-furlong distance among a group that appears to be lacking in the stamina department. She’s my tentative selection by a slim margin over Frost Wise and Super Allison.
The most intriguing wagering opportunities get under way in the second half of the card, and I’ve highlighted those below.
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 2 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 2: 2 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 3: 5 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 4: 5 - 7 - 2 - 3
Race 5: 1 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 6: 7 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 7: 6 - 5 - 10 - 2
Race 8: 3 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 9: 10 - 7 - 5 - 3
RACE 5: PERINA’S PRIDE (#1)
The obvious horse to beat is Maddizaskar. She’s spent the better part of the past year facing much tougher company than the group she meets here. When she faced similarly cheap foes two back on Nov. 16, she did well to close for second behind a winner that controlled the pace through slow early fractions. A repeat of that effort would make her virtually unbeatable, unless one of her rivals improves significantly on their recent form. The only horse who appears to have the potential to do so is Perina’s Pride. This mare has been sent to the gate at some massive prices this year. She actually has not gone off at less than 12-1 in her last 11 starts. Considering that lack of support, she’s actually outperformed expectations on a few occasions, especially in her two recent third-place finishes. She delivered those efforts while racing for prior trainer Gaston Grant, who gets an overall TimeformUS Trainer Rating of just 59. Now she’s been claimed by Robertino Diodoro, a 91-rated trainer who gets a 93 Trainer Rating first off the claim. This seems like a shrewd acquisition of a filly who has subtly been rounding into top form. Furthermore, I like the stretch-out in distance, as she has run some of her best races going a mile.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,6
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with ALL
RACE 6: THREE TO THIRTEEN (#7)
Northern looks like the probable favorite in this spot as he drops in class slightly out of tougher starter allowance races. He’s the only confirmed front-runner in the field, and the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors the early leader. I think he merits respect, but he’s unlikely to offer any value and there are a couple of viable alternatives. Berger earned a respectable speed figure in his debut at Gulfstream last April, but has had trouble recreating that performance in two subsequent starts. However, now he’s making his second start off a layoff after getting beaten by a stronger group of rivals at Fair Grounds last time. I think he’s a major danger to the favorite, and will be using him. However, my top selection is Three to Thirteen, who should go off at an even larger price. If there’s one rival that can keep Northern company on the front end, I think it’s this Kelly Breen trainee. He showed good early speed last time before fading. That was his first start off a 10-month layoff, and he really doesn’t need to improve that much on the speed figure he earned that day in order to compete against this group. It’s also worth noting that the majority of his prior races came as a 2-year-old, and some of those races were actually quite encouraging. He ran very well when breaking his maiden over the talented Carradine at Belmont. After that, he finished a good third behind two decent runners in Nov. 2016 before getting compromised by a wide trip against a gold rail in December of that year. I believe this gelding possesses more ability than he’s shown up until this point, and I think he’s landed in the right spot.
Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,5
RACE 7: WE DID (#6)
This is easily the most confusing race on the card. Jewel Can Disco is the morning-line favorite off the strength of his summer victories, but it’s hard to know exactly what we’re going to get from him off the layoff. Moreover, he and the other speeds in this field might be compromised by a predicted fast pace. Giantinthemoonlite might be the most reliable option, since he routinely shows up with solid efforts and his versatile running style fits the race well. However, he rarely wins, and had no excuse not to finish second last time. At a slightly better price, I’m taking a shot with We Did. This horse lacks the consistency of Giantinthemoonlite, but he’s capable of producing comparable top efforts when he’s in form. I’m encouraged that new trainer Chris Englehart is moving him up in class and protecting him as he makes his first start off a brief layoff. If he can run back to his July win at Saratoga, he’s a major threat here. The projected race flow also suits him, since he’s raced effectively as a closer in the past.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,5,7,10
RACE 8: CINDERELA EL CROME (#3)
I don’t have any major knocks against Westwood, who figures to go off as the favorite. He defeated Tommy T when breaking his maiden two back, and followed that up with a strong performance against winners on Dec. 1. That day, he cut out solid early fractions and opened up decisively at the top of the stretch before getting run down by a deep closer in the late stages. If he merely repeats that effort, the others will probably need to improve in order to beat him. Polar Jet will also take some money, but he’s stepping up in class after easily dispatching less accomplished rivals in recent starts. Admiral Blue has a right to improve off the trainer switch to Rudy Rodriguez, but he probably wants more distance. Instead, my top pick is Cinderela El Crome. This horse clearly needs to improve, since his prior speed figures suggest that he’s too slow to compete against a field of this quality. However, he routinely outran his odds for his previous low-percentage connections, and now gets claimed by Danny Gargan. Over the past five years, Gargan is 18 for 48 (38 percent, $3.43 ROI) first off the claim in dirt races at Aqueduct. I expect to see significant improvement from this 3-year-old.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,6,8