PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 2:   4 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 3:   2 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 4:   4 - 5 - 1/1A - 7
Race 5:   6 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 6:   4 - 8 - 9 - 5
Race 7:   8 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 8:   5 - 4 - 1 - 6

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: CALLALOO (#6)

My Man Matty (#5) figures to go off as a heavy favorite after finishing second on debut here in late November. He was never a threat to win that day, but was beaten by a pretty good horse in Today’s Flavor, who has since reeled off two more victories against allowance company. He made an attempt to follow the move of Today’s Flavor at the quarter pole, breaking free from the rest of the field in upper stretch before tiring a bit in the last furlong. Bruce Levine is just 3 for 54 (6%, $0.58 ROI) with maiden second time starters on dirt over the past 5 years. It took this 5-year-old a long time to get to the races, so it’s fair to wonder how much upside he really has. I’m taking a shot against him with the only horse that interests me as an alternative. Callaloo (#6) obviously hasn’t run as fast enough to win at this level in his first couple of starts, but I do think he’s shown some potential. He put in a deceptively strong effort in his debut against $25k maiden claimers. After dropping far back in the early going, he put in a terrific stretch rally, quickly passing horses in the final quarter mile, running his final eighth in a swift 11.89 seconds. He looked like a candidate to improve in his second start, but he seemed to react badly to kickback while dropping back through the field on the backstretch. He then was tentatively ridden down to the inside on the turn before wheeling out in the stretch pass rivals late. That race also featured a slow pace that worked against him. I think he can get a better trip from this outside post, and the addition of blinkers should help.

WIN: #6 Callaloo, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 2: KING JAMES (#4)

Between the two expected favorites in this $35k claimer, I much prefer Good Skate (#1). He ran a winning race at the $50k level last time but was just beaten by a longshot who displayed surprising improvement in the slop. I can forgive this gelding’s poor effort two back when he didn’t get the right trip and was placed over his head. He figures to be aggressively ridden from the rail draw here, but there is some other speed to his outside. I view him as the horse to beat, and he doesn’t figures to mind the likelihood of a wet track. I have some concerns about his main rival Win for Gold (#5). I’ve always been skeptical of this horse handling longer distances, as he’s faded badly in the late stages of his prior attempts at 7 furlongs and beyond. I also didn’t like his last performance, where he hung through the lane as the 4-5 favorite, unable to get by the typically win-averse Jake Rocks. Win for Gold is also making his first start off the claim for Mike Miceli, whose barn has been in a slump ever since he returned from a suspension about 7 months ago. I’m trying to beat this pair with King James (#4). Some may be turned off by this horse’s overall dirt record, as he’s failed to hit the board in 4 prior starts on this surface. Yet I thought his last effort on this surface was a big step in the right direction. Competing at this level, he chased the pace and never quit through the lane, rallying in tandem with some horses who would be considered strong contenders in this race. He’s since been transferred into the barn of Mike Maker, and shows a series of improved workouts for the new stable. He shouldn’t mind some moisture in the track, and I actually like him getting a chance to stretch out a bit. I would also use One More Score (#3), who ran a competitive speed figure at Parx last March when he was a still a young 3-year-old. He obviously had a setback after that, but he’s returning in a realistic spot and should be a fair price.

WIN: #4 King James, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 4: GERMANY JAYVO (#4)

I want to play against the Rudy Rodriguez entry in this low-level maiden claimer, and both halves could attract some support. I would slightly prefer the first time starter Howzyourcashflow (#1), but she doesn't figure to offer much value with Manny Franco riding. The only other short price I want to use is Will Be Famous (#5) . She has already had plenty of chances, but she’s primarily faced tougher company and may finally get getting the class relief she needs. Though, I do wish she had run a bit better in the slop last time at Parx. My top pick is Germany Jayvo (#4). This filly was making her career debut in that Nov. 27 race that the now scratched Tap It Up also exited. Randi Persaud almost never wins with first time starters, but she actually showed some ability, rallying gamely between horses through the stretch after getting away to a tardy start. She wasn’t as effective last time, but she was too ambitiously placed against maiden special weight company. Now she’s dropping back down to the right level and is getting a subtle rider upgrade to Luis Rodriguez. Randi Persaud’s horses have generally been outrunning their odds lately, and this one looks like a legitimate contender.

WIN: #4 Germany Jayvo, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 6: EL MAYOR (#4)

This race looks pretty simple at first glance, as both likely favorites appear to have a significant class and speed figure advantage over this field. Yet it’s hard to trust either one to bring their top form to this $14k claimer. I’m especially concerned about the drop in class for Quickflash (#8), whose connections appear to be giving up after a mediocre effort against a tougher field at Parx last time. This consistent check getter seemingly could have made some money for his connections this winter, but they’re basically cutting ties in a race where he’s almost certain to get claimed. He would obviously be tough to beat if he ran as well as he did in his first couple of starts for Natalia Lynch, but it’s fair to wonder if he’s still capable of producing that form. Turnsandconditions (#2) is arguably even less trustworthy as he makes his first start since August, when his claim was voided at Del Mar. He’s exiting the barn of Robertino Diodoro, and has been transferred to Gary Sciacca, who is just 3 for 28 ($1.53 ROI) off trainer switches over the past 5 years. His best effort would make him tough here, but there are obvious questions. The logical alternatives to these favorites are horses like Brunate (#5) and Majestic Tiger (#9), but neither one has shown much affinity for winning lately. I want to go in a different direction with El Mayor (#4). This horse may appear to be overmatched at first glance, but I think he’s a bit better than he looks. It looked like he was off form when he first got to Aqueduct last fall, but I thought he showed signs of life last time at this level. He was aggressively ridden to contest the pace, going 4-wide into the turn and losing valuable ground. That was a quick pace that fell apart, but he never stopped trying in the lane. I’m actually intrigued by the turnback for him, as he’s never really gotten a chance to prove he can be effective sprinting on dirt. He also gets a significant rider upgrade to Dylan Davis.

WIN: #4 El Mayor, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 7: MOMMASGOTTARUN (#8)

Spiked (#3) will be tough for this field to handle if she brings her best effort. She gamely chased home subsequent stakes winner Fingal's Cave going this distance at Saratoga in July, and she proved that she’s still capable of producing that form when she finished second here in late November. She couldn’t hold off the challenge of Spooky Road, but she battled on gamely wearing blinkers for the first time. If you give her the sloppy track excuse for that poor effort in early October, she’s run well in all of her other races. Yet she could encounter another wet track on Thursday, which is a legitimate concern. I still view her as the horse to beat, but I don’t want to take too short a price on her. I’m not particularly interested in the Rudy Rodriguez entry, as they could wind up as the second choice given that both seemingly have a chance. Caragate (#4) is a bit more appealing. This New York-bred finished strongly going a mile last time, and distance isn’t supposed to be an issue for her, as she won decisively going 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga over the summer. She just has to get a little faster to upset the favorite. I’m going in a different direction with Mommasgottarun (#8). At first glance, it seems a little odd that Linda Rice is asking a seemingly one-dimensional sprinter to stretch out to 9 furlongs. Yet she’s had success with this move before. Over the past 5 yeas, Rice is 16 for 35 (46%, $2.59 ROI) first off the claim going from sprints to routes on dirt. Plus Rice is 11 for 23 (48%, $2.94 ROI) with all of her first off the claim runners over the past two months. This filly ran poorly here just 12 days ago, but it appeared that her rider made little effort to motivate her at any point on a day when the track was enveloped in fog. She’s better than that, and actually does have some pedigree to stretch-out.

WIN: #8 Mommasgottarun, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 3,4