PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 1 - 7 - 2
Race 2:   3 - 4 - 5
Race 3:   4 - 8 - 6 - 5
Race 4:   7 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 5:   6 - 8 - 2 - 3
Race 6:   3 - 6 - 2 - 8
Race 7:   1A - 2 - 6 - 8
Race 8:   5 - 4 - 2 - 6

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: BUSTIN BAY (#3)

It might seem pretty hard to look past Know It All Audrey (#4), who figures to go off as a heavy favorite, as she just has so much working in her favor here. There isn’t much speed signed on in this compact field, so she figures to control the tempo on the front end. She’s dropping out of a good second-place finish against stakes company last time, beaten only by the classy Venti Valentine. Yet this is still her first attempt at the N2X allowance level, and her prior victories for these connections came against weaker fields. While I don’t dispute that she’s the most likely winner, she has all the hallmarks of a runner that will be overbet, with obvious angles pointing to her and the hot-riding Manny Franco taking over the reins. The only horse who I can build a case for as an alternative is Bustin Bay (#3). At least she possesses the tactical speed to stay in contact with the favorite early, whereas a horse like Mia Bea Star is dependent on others to help her get involved in the race. I thought Bustin Bay ran pretty well last time against what was a deeper field for this level. Katie Davis worked out a good trip for her, though I’m not sure that she was helped by going down to the rail in the stretch. While she hasn’t quite run back to that career-best effort over the summer at Saratoga, her recent efforts have been trending in the right direction. She figures to be a fair price once again, and she’s proven over a wet track, which she’s likely to encounter on Thursday.

WIN: #3 Bustin Bay, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 5: DOUBLE SHOT (#6)

It’s hard to trust anyone in this New York-bred $25k claimer, as most of the contenders have seen better days. That’s particularly true of Microsecond (#4), who returns from a lengthy layoff for Rudy Rodriguez while switching back to dirt. He actually did run decently on dirt early in his career, and actually debuted sprinting for Rudy, but he’s particularly hard to trust in this spot. Unfortunately, much of the speed has scratched out of this race, which doesn't help my top two picks. Masked Marauder (#8) is cutting back to the right distance after trying two turns at Parx last time. I don’t love his overall form, as he did beat a weaker field two back, but he could get the right trip. My top pick is Double Shot (#6), who is another that would appreciate some pace up front. I’m encouraged that Chris Englehart is moving him up in class off the claim even though he might appear to be going off form. His recent efforts aren’t quite as bad as they look, since he got left at the start two back and then was too aggressively ridden when making an early move along the rail last time. He’s better when he can drop back and make one run, and that’s how Eric Cancel figures to pilot him here. These two have had a good rapport in the past. Double Shot has won at this level before and he typically handles wet tracks.

WIN: #6 Double Shot, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 8

RACE 6: CAERUS (#3)

The scratch of expected favorite Ragtime Blues dampens my enthusiasm for this race. Yet I still have questions about Mi Tres Por Ciento (#2), who will likely inherit the favorite's role. He earned some flashy speed figures off the claim by Jeffrey Englehart last summer. Yet he didn’t run well last time at Parx and is now dropping in for a tag as he returns from a layoff. This barn has poor statistics off layoffs of any kind and I’m a little concerned that he may revert to being the cheaper animal we saw early last year. I’m more interested in a couple of rivals at bigger prices. F F Rocket (#6) seems pretty logical as he drops back into a claiming race. He ran well at this level last fall before his connections got a little ambitious in starter allowance company. His last effort isn’t as bad as it seems, and he figures to be a square price. My top pick is Caerus (#3). This horse is getting a notable trainer switch away from Bonnie Lucas, whose runners have struggled to be effective on this circuit over the past several months. On the other hand, new trainer Randi Persaud has been enjoying one of the most successful periods of his career, so this feels like a significant upgrade. Caerus didn’t run that badly at a similar level a few weeks ago and he has plenty of back races that would give him a shot here if Persaud can rekindle some of that form.

WIN: #3 Caerus, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 6

RACE 7: GAGETOWN (#1A)

Chad Brown holds a pretty strong hand in this N2X allowance optional claimer. Dr Ardito (#2) is the slightly more accomplished of his two runners, having won 4 starts in a row after finishing second in his career debut. Yet he’s also had some pretty significant layoffs during that streak and comes into this race off an 8-month break. That alone isn’t reason to be too skeptical, as Brown has fantastic statistics off layoffs of this type. The turnback in distance is a minor concern, but he is bred to go shorter and seems like one that should be well suited to this 7-furlong distance. I slightly prefer him to stablemate Nabokov (#6), who has the recency edge. He comes off a career-best 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure performance, and he’s won going this 7-furlong distance before. Yet I thought he was supposed to win last time when he had dead aim on the leader and just seemed to hang in the late stages. Among the short prices, I’d much rather take the Brown pair than the Pletcher-trained Saint Tapit (#8). Perhaps shortening back up to sprints will wake him up, but I’m concerned that he’s completely failed to show up in two of his last three starts. He does run like a horse that may prefer less ground, but he’s also never really progressed since his brilliant debut effort and will take money based on his pedigree and reputation. I want to go in a different direction in my search for value. While I normally try to avoid endorsing entries, I like Gagetown (#1A) as the stronger half of the Lynn Cash pair, and I don’t think his entrymate is going to drive down the price too much. This horse has plenty of back class, having won a stakes as a 3-year-old before placing behind talented runners Stilleto Boy and Flash of Mischief. He didn’t hit the board in his first start off the claim for Lynn Cash, but I thought he ran pretty well within the context of the race, rated behind a slow pace in tight quarters early. This is the kind of runner that can do well in the Cash stable over time, if not first off the claim. I like that he’s named a local rider in Jose Gomez and think we’re going to see a step forward at what should be a fair price.

WIN: #1A Gagetown, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 8: RED D G P (#5)

Perhaps Callaloo (#6) will win this by attrition, as he has shown ability in all of his starts and finally delivered a professional effort last time. Yet he was 10-1 that day and now will possibly go favored after his form is exposed. I’ve been a proponent of this horse, but I feel the need to jump off the bandwagon here. Stretching out to a mile while returning on 7 days’ rest feels like a bit of an afterthought. Donk has poor numbers with this move, and this horse is bred to be a pure sprinter. He’s by sprint sire Trinniberg and the female family is all sprint influences. Among those who figure to take money, I prefer Refuah (#4), who has at least handled the distance before. This Peter Walder trainee hasn’t shown much affinity for winning races, but he has been beaten by some pretty good rivals and merits consideration in this field. A wacky horse that I want to throw into the mix is Valentino’s Here (#2). He actually put forth a strong effort on turf back in September, hanging on for second at 55-1 despite blowing the start and making a premature move. Since then he hasn’t run quite as well, but he has some dirt pedigree and has at least shown route ability. My top pick is Red D G P (#5). He exits the same race as Callaloo, but the quick turnaround feels a little more intentional here. He was clearly working his way into fitness prior to that Jan. 12 return, even logging two timed workouts the week of the race. He didn’t run nearly as well as Callaloo that day, but he never stopped trying and appeared to get something out of the race. He has plenty of stamina influences on the bottom side of his pedigree and strikes me as a horse that shouldn’t have any problem stretching out in distance. He figures to be a palatable price and I think there’s some upside with him, which is more than I can say about most others in this field.

WIN: #5 Red D G P, at 9-2 or greater