PICKS

Race 1:   8 - 3 - 2 - 7
Race 2:   1 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 3:   1 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 4:   1 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 5:   1 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 6:   9 - 1 - 8 - 2
Race 7:   2 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 8:   1 - 5 - 7 - 4

PLAYS

RACE 2: MISS LIANA (#1)
You have to admire the consistency of likely favorite Lovely Lady Lexi. She finished in the exacta in 9 of 10 starts in 2020, winning 6 times. While she’s yet to visit the winner’s circle since coming to Aqueduct, she has run well in both local starts. She simply found a mile to be too far for her two back when making the lead in mid-stretch before fading, and she stayed on well last time to be second in the slop last time. Now she gets some realistic class relief and she should be right there if repeating any of her recent efforts. Her main rival No Deal is the real wild card in this field. There was a time when she would have crushed a group like this, yet her recent form leaves plenty of questions to be answered. She ran well here last winter and got back on track over the summer at Penn National. However, her return to NYRA in the fall has been a disaster. Her last effort was particularly perplexing, as she was sluggish early and basically restrained late. She’s supposed to be loose on the lead here if she can regain her early zip, and perhaps that will be enough to revive her form. I’m using both of these, but my top pick is Miss Liana. The running line for her last race has been corrected from an earlier error. That was a decent effort at the $20k level, and she actually might have shown more speed had her rider asked her in the opening furlongs. Furthermore, that Monmouth effort two back is better than it seems. This time she lands in a race with a murky pace scenario, so her tactical speed should be an asset. This drop in class is more significant than a typical $20k to $16k move given the lack of quality in this field. She’s in solid form right now and should not be dismissed.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,6
Trifecta: 1 with 4,5 with 4,5,6,7

RACE 4: DARK MONEY (#1)
Runaway Lute may go off as the lukewarm favorite. His recent speed figures may be a little light, but he’s faced much better fields in his last two starts. He had no chance against the likes of More Graytful and Tale of the Union last time. Prior to that he had run well at the tougher $40k/N2X level, finishing just a couple of lengths behind solid allowance performers Fort Worth and Celtic Chaos. He’s probably now just getting the class relief that he needs, and he also figures to work out a nice outside stalking trip. Who knows what we’re going to get from returnee Sicilia Mike off a lengthy layoff and trainer switch. He clearly has prior form that would beat this field, but Wayne Potts does not have particularly strong numbers off layoffs. My top pick is Dark Money. That last effort isn’t nearly as bad as it seems, as he got caught up in a very fast pace chasing two-wide over a rail biased track. The race completely fell apart in the late stages, so he can be forgiven for fading. His performance prior to that was quite strong, in which he set the pace going a distance that is too far for him at a tougher level. Now he makes his first start off the claim for Tom Morley, who is 4 for 32 (13%, $3.92 ROI) first off the claim over the past 2 years. The biggest hurdle for this horse may be the prospect of an early duel with the very fast Steam Engine, but he’ll be dangerous if he can let that one go and stalk.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,7

RACE 6: DADDY KNOWS (#9)
I struggled with the morning line in this race, as it feels like a toss-up as to which direction the public will go. Just Right, The Caretaker, and Daddy Knows all figure to take money for different reasons. I made Just Right the slight favorite off the strength of the claim by Rob Atras. This barn is a strong 7 for 23 (30%, $2.07 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes over the past 5 years. While he was defeated by both of those aforementioned rivals in that Dec. 19 event, he was coming off a couple of victories at this levels prior to that. He’s stretching out off the claim, but he’s handled his one-mile distance in the past. I’m not the biggest fan of this horse, but I do expect him to move forward with this barn change. The Caretaker arguably has the strongest form of anyone coming into this race, but I’m skeptical about him stretching out in distance. He’s tried routes in the past with little success, and he has a tendency to flatten out at the end of even some of his 7-furlong races. He’s getting some class relief and undoubtedly ran well on Dec. 19, but I prefer others this time. The horse I want most out of that Dec. 19 affair is Daddy Knows. This 5-year-old has been a different horse since getting claimed by Rudy Rodriguez for $14k in October. And that performance last time when finishing third at this level was the best of his career. He chased the pace while racing three-wide over a rail-biased track in a race that fell apart. That 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the highest in this field. Some might be skeptical about him stretching out as well, but recall that he broke his maiden going 9 furlongs at Saratoga as a 3-year-old. Furthermore, he’s the younger half-brother to popular New York-bred Mr. Buff.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,4,8
Trifecta: 9 with 1,8 with 1,2,4,7,8

RACE 8: REGGAE MUSIC MAN (#1)
This appears to be a strong New York-bred maiden affair, topped by a pair of second-time starters who each finished second in their debuts. I’m not sure which one will go favored, but I strongly prefer the Pat Kelly-trained Reggae Music Man. This son of Maclean’s Music took a ton of money in his debut for a low-profile barn, and he backed up that support with a strong effort. He didn’t break that sharply, but quickly got himself into a mid-pack position. He briefly went outside on the far turn before angling back in for the stretch drive, and gamely accelerated to daylight, gaining ground on the winner approaching the wire. It was a highly encouraging effort from a horse who had obviously been working well prior to that start. I expect to see more early speed out of him this time, assuming he breaks better. Big Brown Shoes ran a similar speed figure in his debut, also debuting over a wet track. However, I was less impressed with his performance, as he merely carved out some moderate fractions on the lead before settling for second behind impressive winner Uno. He can also improve second time out, but I expect he’ll face some more pace pressure this time. There are also some first time starters to consider. The obvious one is A Longlongtimeago, who goes out for excellent debut trainer Jorge Abreu. Though, I’d also give a look to the other Pat Kelly trainee Taco Bean, who also comes into this first start with some quick workouts showing.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5,7
Trifecta: 1 with 5,7 with 2,3,4,5,7