by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 2: 6 - 1A - 4 - 3
Race 3: 4 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 4: 8 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 5: 2 - 8 - 5 - 6
Race 6: 3 - 1/1A - 2 - 7
Race 7: 3 - 6 - 7 - 1A
Race 8: 5 - 4 - 7 - 8
RACE 3: LUCID DREAM (#4)
Despite his low-profile connections, Loverboy Lou has to be considered the horse to beat. He’s dropping in for a tag for the first time after a couple of strong efforts at the maiden special weight level. The problem is that those two performances are separated by a pair of disappointing results in between. While he is facing possibly the softest field of his career, it’s difficult to trust him. I’m definitely using this colt defensively, but I think it’s worth trying to beat him. One of his main rivals appears to be Running Violence, who makes his second career start after being claimed by Charlton Baker out of his debut. While I thought he ran well for the $30,000 tag, it’s not easy to claim off Steve Asmussen’s New York stable right now since it has been the hottest barn on the circuit. Baker has solid numbers in this situation, but I think this runner would have to improve. I generally prefer horses dropping out of the maiden special weight ranks in these races, and the class dropper who interests me most is longshot Lucid Dream. Dismissed at 39-1 in his debut on Travers Day at Saratoga, I thought he put forth a respectable effort to be fifth. The winner, Classy John, has gone on to run very well against stakes company. Lucid Dream was slow into stride early, but he was rolling up the rail in deep stretch and actually galloped out on even terms with the winner soon after the wire. His speed figure dropped off significantly in his subsequent start at Belmont, but I don’t want to put too much stock in that performance. There was a significant rail bias on Sept. 29, and Lucid Dream was always wide and never able to get into contention before fading late. He is perhaps taking the biggest class drop of anyone in this field as he returns from the layoff as a new gelding.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5,6,7
RACE 4: MARCH SCREAMER (#8)
Rucksack has clearly run the fastest speed figures in this field, so perhaps he will finally win his maiden in career start No. 13. However, I think you have to be somewhat concerned about his last race. The early pace was obviously legitimate, but it’s not coded as being unusually fast in TimeformUS PPs. Rucksack has set strong fractions in the past and continued to battle on, but this time, he totally shut down in the stretch. I don’t think it’s fair to use the track condition as an excuse since he’s run quite well over wet surfaces in the past. Ray Handal generally does a good job, but it’s possible that this horse is starting to head in the wrong direction after attaining top form last summer and fall. His main rival is Our Honor, who returns from a layoff for Linda Rice. It’s generally not a good sign when trainers claim horses and immediately put them on the sidelines for an extended period of time, but Rice has actually had some success with this move. My biggest issue with Our Honor is that I’m just not thrilled with any of his races. He figures to be a relatively short price, and I’m not convinced that he’s a far more likely winner than March Screamer. Trainer Miguel Vera has been somewhat unlucky shipping horses to NYRA in recent years. His stable has notched just a single win from 23 starts, yet seven of those were second-place finishes. I realize that March Screamer looks a bit slower than the two aforementioned runners, but he still has upside in just his fourth career start. I thought he ran a bit better than it seems last time, as he was hard used early to chase a 1-5 favorite after a slow break. That rival eventually put him away in the stretch, but March Screamer fought on valiantly in a race that may have been faster than the speed figures indicate.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,4,7
RACE 6: BEACHSIDE (#3)
The Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners entry comprising Pipes and Southern King is formidable. Both are strong contenders, having finished second and fourth in the recent Damon Runyon Stakes. The prospect of another sloppy track on Thursday should aid Pipes, who seems to relish surfaces containing moisture. It took his connections a while to figure him out, but he’s been in excellent form since coming to Aqueduct. The only drawback is that he’s gotten perfect trips in those last two starts, and it’s fair to wonder if that luck will carry forward. Southern King and Beachside exit the same pair of races, with the former just edging out the Linda Rice trainee on both occasions. Southern King has clearly improved since moving into Todd Pletcher’s barn, but I thought he should have offered up a stronger finish last time after reaching contention in the stretch of the Damon Runyon. Beachside’s problem has been his overall lack of early speed, as he has dropped too far behind in both of his starts against winners. He finished fastest of all in those December races but just ran out of real estate. The respective paces of those races did not exactly work in his favor, as Le General set relatively slow fractions on Dec. 9, and Not That Brady was able to dominate on the front end in the Damon Runyon. This time, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, as a few stretching-out sprinters should ensure that they’re moving quickly up front. If that scenario plays out, I think this race could fall into Beachside’s lap.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,7
Trifecta: 3 with 1 with 2,5,7
RACE 8: CARIBA (#5)
Paynterbynumers is the horse to beat once again after receiving overwhelming tote board support in her first couple of starts. Bet down to a ridiculous price of 1-2 last time, I thought she actually ran within the context of the race. She was away from the gate awkwardly and was reluctant to settle early before taking charge of the race leaving the backstretch. She held the lead for a long way after that but eventually yielded in the last eighth. While the public has not yet been proven right about her possessing inordinate ability, she nevertheless deserves to be favored once again. The main issue is her propensity to break slowly, as that could be especially detrimental as she starts in the middle of this 9-horse field. One of her rivals that figures to attract attention is second time starter Solent. This Chad Brown trainee put forth an encouraging effort in her debut, as she rallied from well back in the pack after getting away very slowly. She was never a threat to the winner, but I thought she did well to stay on for second after making a mid-race move. Nevertheless, that was a slow race and she is now stepping up to face much tougher company. My top pick is Cariba. I’m not totally convinced that she’s a true dirt router, but I do think she has shown ability in her first couple of starts. Like Paynterbynumbers, she’s been somewhat undone by her own antics. In her debut, Junior Alvarado had plenty of difficulty riding her as she tried lug in badly during the stretch drive. She again drifted in last time, though the issue was not quite as pronounced. I think this filly has more ability than she’s yet shown and perhaps Rajiv Maragh would do well to place her in a more forward position on the stretch-out. Kiaran McLaughlin’s statistics with maidens going from sprints to routes are decent enough, and she figures to be no better than the second choice in the wagering.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 4,6,7,8