by David Aragona
The week begins with a group of nine relatively competitive races, headed by the Busanda for 3-year-old fillies at 1 1/8 miles, which goes as race 3.
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 4 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 2: 2 - 7 - 5
Race 3: 1 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 4: 5 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 5: 8 - 1 - 2 - 7
Race 6: 6 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 7: 7 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 8: 6 - 3 - 7 - 5
Race 9: 5 - 7 - 3 - 8
RACE 1: BLUE BELT (#4)
Rudy Rodriguez holds a strong hand in Thursday’s opener. Bobby on Fleek and Hembree are both coming off recent wins as they step up into a tougher spot. Bobby on Fleek may be better suited to today’s conditions since all three of his career wins have come sprinting. However, his recent victory came against a much weaker group, and the speed figure he earned makes him merely a contender – hardly the horse to beat. Of the two, I actually prefer Hembree. This horse took advantage of circumstances last time as he rode a good rail while setting slow fractions in the mud. However, it’s not as if that was his only competitive dirt race, since he’s actually run well in all three of his starts over the main track. Furthermore, he’s shown the ability to rally from just off the pace, which should help him in a race that appears to be loaded with speed. I’ll use him, but my top selection is Blue Belt, who should go off at a more attractive price. His most recent start on Nov. 11 came against a salty group of New York-breds. We’ve seen a few horses come out of that race to run faster speed figures, including Saratoga Giro and Brimstone. The early pace of that race was fast (indicated by red color-coding in TimeformUS PPs), and Blue Belt did well to make a run after the leader on the turn before staying on decently in the stretch, especially considering that the race fell apart late. He has successfully stalked the pace in the past, and he should work out that kind of trip here since both Tribecca and Curtis are faster than him early. Over the past five years, Dave Cannizzo is 7 for 32 (22 percent, $2.63 ROI) with horses going from allowance to claiming company on dirt.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 5,6
RACE 3: MIDNIGHT DISGUISE (#1)
The horse to beat is clearly Hail, who has done little wrong through two career starts and has seemingly limitless potential given her pedigree. She is a half-sister to champion mare Close Hatches and Grade 1-placed Lockdown, both of whom improved with added distance. I have no major knocks against her and believe she must be used in any multi-race wagers. I’m a bit more skeptical of the other runner likely to take money, Wealth Effect. Her dirt debut last month was not the most inspiring effort, as she had trouble running down the stamina-challenged Wall of Compassion while going a mile. While the winner did ride a golden rail for her entire trip, Wealth Effect also was racing inside for much of the way. I prefer others if I’m looking for alternatives to Hail. The one I think will offer the best value is Midnight Disguise. I know she’s a bit slower than her competition, but I don’t think we’ve seen this filly’s best. She was matched up against inferior competition in her first couple of starts, but she proved her quality last time out in the East View. English Soul, the winner of that race, is a very talented New York-bred filly, and Midnight Disguise ran nearly as well as her in defeat. After breaking a bit slowly, Midnight Disguise was extremely wide throughout, making a four- to five-wide run around the turn and into the lane. She ducked in briefly in midstretch, costing herself some momentum, but stayed on well thereafter, putting five lengths between herself and the third-place finisher in the last furlong. At first glance, one might not think that a daughter of Midnight Lute out of a Yes It’s True mare would want to keep stretching out in distance. However, there’s actually a ton of stamina in this filly’s female family. Her dam was a confirmed dirt router and is half-sister to millionaire New York-bred router Naughty New Yorker. Linda Rice brings Midnight Disguise back on short rest, but she’s had great success with this move. Over the past five years, she is 31 for 83 (37 percent, $2.45 ROI) with horses coming back in eight to 14 days on dirt. I’ll primarily use her with Hail, but I also want to throw in longshot Take Charge Tina at a much larger price. This filly had subtle traffic trouble in her second start, and rebounded with a dominant win at Parx. She could play out as the controlling speed under Kendrick Carmouche.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,5
Trifecta: 1 with 4,5 with ALL
RACE 7: MILLS (#7)
This is one of the most wide-open races on the entire card. The likely favorite is Altar Boy, who comes off an optional claiming win in an off-the-turf race. Altar Boy has spent the majority of the past year racing on turf, but he has put in some decent dirt performances when given the opportunity to run over this surface. He’s clearly capable of performing at a variety of distances, and Rudy Rodriguez has good numbers off the claim. He’s a logical contender, but I think some others may offer better value. Rudy Rodriguez’s other entrant, Daddy D T, also makes his first start off the claim for this barn after a blowout win against overmatched $25,000 claimers last time. The major question for him is the stretch-out in distance, since he has generally had trouble getting a mile on the turf during the past couple of seasons. However, the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be favorably positioned on the lead in this race, so I do think he’s somewhat dangerous. My top pick is Mills. This horse has raced exclusively at Parx since getting claimed by Bruce Levine last summer, and he’s done well, winning once and finishing second twice against optional claiming company. The TimeformUS Speed Figures that he earned for those efforts suggest that he’s running faster than almost every other horse in this race. However, what I find especially encouraging about those efforts is the more aggressive running style that he’s employed. Mills has always been a bit of a plodder, heavily reliant on the early pace. Yet in those recent Parx efforts, he has positioned himself relatively close to the early lead. That newfound tactical speed will be especially valuable in this largely paceless race.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,4
RACE 8: ZEALOUS SCHOLAR (#6)
If Lady Bergen repeats the effort she put forth in her most recent victory, she is probably going to win this race. I’m just somewhat skeptical that that will actually happen. Nov. 16 was a day that featured a plethora of front-running winners, with many putting huge margins between themselves and the competition. While she likely did improve off the trainer switch to Jason Servis, I believe that the nature of the racing surface exaggerated that improvement. Furthermore, this filly absolutely needs the early lead in order to run her best race, and I doubt she gets it here. Zealous Scholar is well positioned outside of her and is undoubtedly faster in the early going. (Compare Zealous Scholar’s 121 TimeformUS Early Pace Rating to Lady Bergen’s 101.) Furthermore, Zealous Scholar gets a rider switch to Paco Lopez, who is better than anyone at getting fast horses out of the gate swiftly. The Pace Projector is predicting that Zealous Scholar will be clearly in front early in a race favoring horses on or near the lead. Zealous Scholar has run a number of competitive TimeformUS Speed Figures in her career, and her most recent effort on Dec. 15 suggests that she’s returned in top form for new trainer Eduardo Jones. I think she has an excellent chance to wire the field. I’ll primarily use her with morning-line second choice Andesine and No Hayne No Gayne, who could really appreciate the turnback in distance and will be a square price.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Box: 3,6,7
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,5