by David Aragona
 

Thursday’s eight-race card commences with an assortment of maiden and lower-level claiming races, but concludes with a trio of contests that each hold some intrigue. The closest thing we have to a “feature” on this card is the 6th race, an optional claimer that stars some talented three-year-old New York-breds, led by multiple stakes-placed Morning Breez and impressive Belmont maiden winner New York Hero. That precedes a pair of difficult route events in the 7th and 8th races, both of which I’ve covered in my analysis below.

As we prepare for Thursday’s card, do note that the harsh weather we experienced last weekend is expected to intensify over the next few days as snow, wind, and more frigid temperatures are predicted to blow through the city.

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 2:   1 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 3:   7 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 4:   2 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 5:   5 - 8 - 2 - 3
Race 6:   7 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 7:   7 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 8:   3 - 7 - 5 - 9

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: PERINA’S PRIDE (#2)
Champagne Ruby’s recent Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures give her a substantial edge in this spot, and the presence of leading rider Irad Ortiz only adds to her appeal. However, she compiled most of those numbers at Finger Lakes since being claimed away from Danny Gargan in the summer, and her one effort at NYRA since then was fairly lackluster. She is dropping in class off that performance, and I do believe she’s the horse to beat. However, one of her rivals looks poised to deliver an improved performance. Perina’s Pride has been sent to the gate at some massive prices this year. She actually has not gone off at less than 12-1 in her last 11 starts. Considering that lack of support, she’s actually outperformed expectations on a few occasions, especially in her two recent third-place finishes. She delivered those efforts while racing for trainer Gaston Grant, who gets an overall TimeformUS Trainer Rating of just 59. Now she’s been claimed by Robertino Diodoro, a 91-rated trainer who gets a 93 Trainer Rating first off the claim. This seems like a shrewd acquisition of a filly who has subtly been rounding into top form. A price in the 5-2 to 3-1 range seems fair.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,6

 

RACE 5: TIZ RAE ANNA (#5)
Rudy Rodriguez sends out a pair of runners who figure to garner their fair share of support. The likely favorite is Loose, who has run the fastest recent races, having won both of her starts since being claimed by this barn back in August. However, she’s needed breaks of six to seven weeks between races, which is not a great sign. I still prefer her to stablemate Spinyatta, who is not really getting a trainer upgrade as she exits the stable of the very capable Phil D’Amato. Furthermore, her two dirt-sprint wins in California came against weak competition, and this is a much tougher spot. I want to look elsewhere, and the filly who interests me most is Tiz Rae Anna. I know that her recent form looks poor, but she’s simply been keeping far tougher company than what she meets here. Since returning from a summer break, she’s faced N1X allowance company in four straight starts. While she’s just not quite good enough to compete at that level, her last performance was not actually that bad. The talented filly Come Dancing dominated that race on the front end, and Tiz Rae Anna did well to stay in contact with the rest of the field despite trying to close into slow fractions. She will appreciate the class relief, and her recent speed figures suggest that she doesn’t have to improve much, if at all, to beat this bunch.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,8

 

RACE 7: CHILLY BON BON (#7)
Both favorites have flaws. Becker’s Galaxy goes out for top connections, but there’s no denying that he’s been a disappointment since getting claimed back by Rudy Rodriguez at Saratoga. He’s been well beaten in three starts, running slower each time, and now they drop him in class, looking to get rid of him. If he were to run back to that August win at today’s distance, he would be a cinch in here. However, that prospect seems highly unlikely at this point. Iron Power was recently claimed away from Rodriguez as he now goes out for Antonio Arriaga. This new barn has had some eye-catching success with some big prices at this Aqueduct meet. Iron Power has run competitive dirt races in the past, but he’s been primarily a turf horse lately, and horses like him seem to get less versatile as they age. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins, but I think he’s a risky bet at a short price. I instead want to take a shot with Chilly Bon Bon. I know that the Pace Projector does not indicate that he will be on the lead here, but I have to think Kendrick Carmouche will be looking to send him from his outside post position. After all, he’s clearly run his best races when able to control the early pace. Furthermore, he’s handled two turns well in the past, so this stretch-out in distance should agree with him. If Michelle Nevin can get him back to the form he displayed last winter, he’s a major threat here.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,5,6

 

RACE 8: ISOTOPE (#3)
This is probably the most intriguing race on the card. The morning-line favorite is Gobi, who figures to take money off an eye-catching win in early December. While she was facing inferior competition that day, she drew off with authority, earning the fastest speed figure in this field. Danny Gargan, who acquired her out of that race, has excellent numbers off the claim at Aqueduct. The only drawback is that he’s getting her from leading trainer Linda Rice, so I wonder how much he can improve this filly. I prefer her to Reckless Humor, the other runner likely to take money. She’s run competitively on dirt but has done so going shorter distances and is primarily a turf horse. I want an alternative to these short prices, so I’m taking a shot with Isotope. If this Jeremiah Englehart trainee can run back to her September win at Belmont, she’ll have a major say in the outcome of this race. Her two performances since then seem disappointing at first glance, but I don’t think circumstances have been in her favor. Both of those races featured relatively slow early paces and were dominated by the early leaders. She’s now stretching out in distance, and I believe she can handle it. Successful Appeal is a strong 19 percent dirt-route sire. I’m also encouraged that she’s fired two bullet workouts since her last race.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,7,9
Trifecta: 3,7 with 3,7 with ALL