PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 3 - 1 - 8
Race 2:   6 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 3:   5 - 3 - 9 - 6
Race 4:   8 - 4 - 3 - 9
Race 5:   1 - 7 - 8 - 3
Race 6:   3 - 2 - 8 - 5
Race 7:   6 - 1 - 4
Race 8:   6 - 4 - 10 - 7

PLAYS

RACE 1: SWINGING STICKS (#4)
Another Shot figures to go off at an extremely short price as he drops in class again after checking in third at the $40k level in early December. A repeat of that 76 TimeformUS Speed Figure should make him awfully tough for this field to handle for the sheer fact that there just isn’t any other positive dirt form to be found among his competitors. He’s the most likely winner and it isn’t really close, but I do think that there is at least one alternative who may offer sufficient value to take a shot against this favorite. Swinging Sticks has yet to try dirt, having made his debut sprinting on the turf against maiden special weight company. He took no money that day and didn’t show much ability, just running along sluggishly at the back of the pack. However, it shouldn’t be a great surprise that he didn’t handle turf, since he has a dirt pedigree. Effinex has yet to distinguish himself as a sire, but if his progeny have shown anything it’s that they want dirt routes. Furthermore, this colt is a half-brother to 6-time winning dirt router Abounding Spirit ($170k) and 5-time winning dirt router Mental Iceberg ($168k). Jorge Abreu doesn’t have great statistics with this move, but this horse lands in a weak spot and should improve under these conditions if he can run at all.

Win: 4
Exacta Box: 3,4

RACE 6: MAKE OR BREAK (#3)
The two main players in this race are Big Bennys Tribute and Chaysenbryn, who finished second and third, respectively, when they met at this level on Dec. 11. Neither was any match for easy winner Customerexperience, but they both ran well and earned solid speed figures. Big Bennys Tribute proved that she could handle the one-mile distance stretching out for the first time, whereas Chaysenbryn validated her surprising 10-length win against cheaper company in November. Chaysenbryn did lose to her rival by 1 1/2 lengths, but she also had the wider trip. I’m using both of them, but I think there’s at least one alternative to consider at a better price. Make Or Break was no match for those aforementioned two favorites when they met at this level on Dec. 11. However, she was able to achieve a better result on the class drop last time. That 90 TimeformUS Speed Figure stacks up well against those of the favorites, but she still lost at a relatively short price. One has to wonder if she requires slightly softer company to put in competitive efforts. Yet I’d be willing to upgrade that last effort slightly due to the fact that she was racing wide throughout over a rail-biased surface. She now goes out for Mertkan Kantarmaci, who is 13 for 46 (28%, $3.15 ROI) first off the claim on dirt at Aqueduct over the past 5 years. The fact that she’s moving all the way back up in class into a protected spot has to be a good sign. Notably these connections pulled off an upset with a similar move up in class off the claim on Sunday’s card.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,5,8

RACE 7: SOMEDAY JONES (#6)
We're not going to get much of a price on my top selection Someday Jones following the scratch of likely favorite Looking at Bikinis. While this 8-year-old horse may want slightly longer distances than this one-turn mile, he’s a classy runner who should not be underestimated. He was game to hang on for the victory against cheaper claimers on Dec. 10 and then returned with an even better effort last time. Racing over a rail-biased surface, he had to be taking farther off the pace than usual to get down to the inside path and stayed there until the stretch, at which point he lost momentum when trying to close outside. He earned a strong 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance, and now he’s moving up in class off the claim by the sharp Mike Maker barn. There should be an honest pace in here given the presence of Rock On Luke, and he could be as much as three times the price of the favorite. I strongly prefer him to Lil Commissioner and Mihos, who come out of a weaker race at this level. Perhaps more intriguing than those two is the aforementioned front-runner Rock On Luke, who has been improving in his recent starts at Parx. Especially after the scratch of Looking at Bikinis, Rock On Luke should be able to control the tempo up front, but it remains to be seen if he possesses the quality to fend off a rival like Someday Jones.

Win: 6
Exacta Box: 1,6

RACE 8: SHANDIAN (#6)
This finale is a real puzzle, compounded by the fact that most of the major contenders are coming off poor efforts. The only exception to that rule is the morning line favorite Brees Bayou, who just broke his maiden for a $40k tag in the slop in November. He earned a solid 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort and could easily make it two in a row if he repeats that kind of effort over fast going on Thursday. However, he’s difficult to trust given his prior inconsistent form and others seem likely to offer better value. I have no issue with horses like Number One Dillon or David’s Gem. The former has a right to improve off the claim for Rob Atras, and the latter is getting needed class relief after facing much tougher company at Parx. They both ran fast enough to be competitive here when breaking their maidens, but it remains to be seen if they can get back to those figures. I’m going in a different direction with Shandian. This horse appeared to run poorly last time, but I think he had some significant excuses. There was plenty of speed signed on in that Dec. 18 affair – much more than he encounters here – and he contested the lead early before getting outrun by the fleet Ink Splotz on the far turn. He appeared to have some run left at the head of the stretch, but his rider tried to sneak through inside of the quitting Ink Splotz and he was forced to steady, losing all his momentum. He was obviously never winning that race, but the 20-length margin of defeat is exaggerated by his trouble. He’s competitive here based on his effort two back, and would clearly win if able to repeat his Monmouth maiden victory.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,5,7,10