PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 2:   6 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 3:   2 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 4:   3 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 5:   1 - 6 - 5 - 7
Race 6:   1 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 7:   5 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 8:   7 - 5 - 8 - 2

PLAYS

RACE 3: MOON HEIST (#2)
The two favorites in this race appear to be standing on shaky ground. Bustin Scones owns the best overall form, having raced competitively at the tougher New York-bred N1X level last year before going off form in her most recent start. Bet down to 7-2 odds last time, she surprisingly ran out of gas by the time the field hit the quarter pole. Perhaps the longer 7-furlong distance got to her, but that doesn’t totally explain the massive drop-off in her speed figures. Shesasuperfreak comes off a much better effort at this level last time, but it’s hard to have any confidence that she can repeat it. She was sent off at 47-1 last time for a reason, as her four prior races had resulted in losses by large margins, with her often getting eased across the wire. That said, it’s not as if her good effort last time came out of nowhere, as she had previously earned competitive speed figures on a couple of occasions. Perhaps her connections finally have her heading in the right direction, but I don’t want to accept a short price to find out. I instead want to take a different rival out of that Dec. 13 affair. Moon Heist was outrun to the early lead and forced to drop back on the turn when Shesasuperfreak moved up outside, essentially pinning her in. That wasn’t the right trip for a filly who had broken her maiden by leading all the way. Yet, despite getting put into that awkward position on the turn, she never quit running through the stretch, staying on well to be sixth. I take it to be a positive sign that she showed such late interest after fading in her prior starts. Perhaps she’s found a home at this class level and I think she can work out her preferred trip here with less speed signed on.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,6
Trifecta: 2 with 1,6 with ALL

RACE 5: TRAVELING (#1)
Super Silver has to be considered the horse to beat due to his overall consistency at this level. He’s making his sixth consecutive start for this $50,000 starter allowance condition and he’s already finished second three times prior to this. That was also the case last time when he had to settle for the runner-up position as the 6-5 favorite in the slop, but a repeat of that performance would make him difficult for this field to beat. He has to stretch out to 1 1/8 miles this time, but he broke his maiden over this distance so it shouldn’t be a problem. I’m using him prominently, but I prefer the runner who finished directly behind him last time. Traveling was an intriguing contender for Rudy Rodriguez in that Dec. 14 race since his form for prior trainer Cherie Devaux had been fairly inconsistent. While he may not have run his best race ever first off the trainer switch, I thought there were some things to like about the performance. He showed that he can be effective rating off the pace, something he hadn’t done well before, and he was closing well in the final furlong over a track that was favoring speed for most of the day. He strikes me as one that shouldn’t have a major issue with the stretch-out to 9 furlongs, and he drew a great inside post position for this distance. I wouldn’t be surprised if Reylu Gutierrez takes advantage of the rail draw and just sends him to the lead. Others to consider include Spectactor Sport, who would be a factor if he continues progressing for Linda Rice, and Danny California, who is due for some luck and should appreciate a little added ground.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,6,7
Trifecta: 1 with 5,6,7 with 2,3,5,6,7