PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 2:   6 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 3:   4 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 4:   2 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 5:   1 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 6:   7 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 7:   3 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 8:   6 - 7 - 2 - 4

PLAYS

(Guide - FAIR VALUE: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 1

This is hardly the most interesting race on the card but I do think that a couple of the short prices are vulnerable. Midnight Express (#1) has run some decent races at the maiden claiming level, but he’s had his chances against weaker fields than this and continues to disappoint. Uragano (#4) could also take some money as he returns from a layoff, first off a trainer switch for Charlton Baker. He’s run most of his best speed figures on the turf, so this could just be a prep for a grass race. It might seem like he’s handled dirt based on his early speed figures, but he really didn’t do much running in any of those races. I much prefer Dudley Dickerson (#3). This horse doesn’t possess much early speed, which is a minor concern in this small field. Yet he’s faced much tougher company in his last couple of starts. He actually did well to pass most of the field two back behind Maker’s Candy, who subsequently crossed the wire first in a stakes. Then last time he couldn’t make as much headway from the back of the pack, but he was also closing outside when the rail may have been good. He adds blinkers and just appears to be dropping to the right level.

Fair Value:
#3 DUDLEY DICKERSON, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 2

Curlins Choir (#5) and Lady Shylock (#1) could vie for favoritism in this starter optional claimer for 3-year-old fillies. The former suffered her first defeat at this level last time, but ran a decent race considering her wide trip, staying on mildly at the end to get up for third. She arguably isn’t facing a rival as tough as winner Howzyourcashflow, but she will have to turn the tables on the runner-up from that race. Lady Shylock showed a new dimension at this level last time, as she got outrun to the early lead and was forced to rate. I thought she stayed on pretty gamely in the stretch despite having to alter course late. Her connections are likely to get more aggressive here as she breaks from the rail, but there is some other speed drawn outside of her. She’s the one I would want most out of that race, but I think another rival will offer better value. Honest Banker (#6) might look inferior to this group based purely on that modest 75 TimeformUS Speed Figure on debut. She was a well-kept secret that day, as she went off at 15-1 for a barn that typically sends out short-priced winners. She moved into a fast pace – indicated by red color-coded pace figures in TimeformUS – and put away her rivals convincingly to win in commanding fashion. A few horses to run back out of that race have subsequently improved their speed figures significantly, particularly those who contested the pace along with her. She now returns in a tougher spot, but she’s not in for the tag and has drawn well on the outside again. The price figures to be fair in this competitive field.

Fair Value:
#6 HONEST BANKER, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 7

This optional claimer is arguably the most interesting race of the day, as there are multiple contenders of high quality. Sheriff Bianco (#6) would have been the clear favorite in this race if not for her last outing, where he lost to a pair of rivals he meets again today. This Linda Rice trainee was in great form through most of the winter, but he’s now lost 3 races in a row at this level and didn’t have a major excuse last time. The runner I want out of that Feb. 18 affair is runner-up King Angelo (#3). He was bumped coming away from the gate, and forced to rate at the back of that 6-horse field, which is not his best style. He still had plenty to do with a quarter mile to go, but put in a strong rally to fall just short at the end. I think we’ll see a change of tactics this time with Manny Franco taking over again. He’s better when he’s more aggressively ridden, and I think his versatility and finishing power will give him an advantage over this 7-furlong distance. The wild card in this field is High Oak (#5). He showed real talent as a 2-year-old, winning the Saratoga Special in fast time over subsequent Grade 1 winner Gunite. However, he had a scary fall in the Fountain of Youth last year, and was off for a long time. His return at Gulfstream last time looks terrible at first glance, but there was a significant dead rail that day, and he was inside throughout in a race dominated by outside runners. I think he’s better than that, but this is still a tough assignment for a horse who hasn’t run a competitive race in nearly two years. I could upgrade him if the price is generous.

Fair Value:
#3 KING ANGELO, at 2-1 or greater