PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 2:   7 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 3:   5 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 4:   7 - 9 - 6 - 3
Race 5:   5 - 7 - 1 - 3
Race 6:   1A/1 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 7:   9 - 4 - 6 - 8
Race 8:   7 - 1A - 6 - 3
Race 9:   5 - 7 - 8 - 6

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 4: SUPER QUALITY (#7)

There aren’t that many options in this $20k maiden claimer, so horses like Psychic Income (#9) and Sean the Hammer (#6) figure to be relatively short prices. The former is arguably the horse to beat as he drops in class second off the claim for Ray Handal. He obviously had little chance in that maiden special weight affair last time, but it is still a negative sign that he’s dropping down to half the price for which he was claimed at Saratoga. Sean the Hammer comes in off a better effort, but he hasn’t been seen since the end of April. The fact that he’s needed so much time between starts is concerning, and he’s returning for a barn that hasn’t been posting its usual impressive statistics ever since the early summer. The claiming tag is waived, but I wouldn’t necessarily view that as a positive. I’m looking at an alternative that can perhaps lead this field from gate to wire. Super Quality (#7) has finished far back in both dirt starts, but you can make some excuses for those performances. He was badly overmatched in his career debut at Gulfstream earlier in the year. After subsequently showing some improvement on turf, he got back on dirt last time but was asked to stretch out to a mile. He actually showed good early speed, but the distance proved too much for him to handle. It also seemed like the rail was not the best place to be on that Sep. 30 card, and he was glued to the inside path. I’m expecting a better performance as he drops down and cuts back.

WIN: #7 Super Quality, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 8: BLAME IT ON MARY (#7)

The early pace in this race could depend on Towering Orbit (#3) actually getting out of the gate, something that she’s struggled with in her last few starts. She was able to rush up after a slow start last time, but that could be difficult breaking from an inside draw. Both halves of the Christophe Clement entry would be hoping for some pace to develop. Derrynane (#1) comes in with more impressive credentials, but she’s been off form in her last few starts against open stakes foes. This is a significant drop in class for her, but I’m skeptical that she she’ll deliver a top performance. I would actually prefer her stablemate drawn on the AE list, Kokopelli (#1A). I admit that I’ve never been this filly’s biggest fan, but I thought she ran better than it might appear last time when closing into a slow pace in a race dominated up front. Yet there are others to consider who figure to be more enticing prices. Palace Gossip (#6) is a candidate to appreciate a turnback in distance after trying to stretch out around two turns in a pair of starts at Saratoga. I did expect her to run better the last time she sprinted in July, but perhaps the return to her preferred 6-furlong distance will suit her. My top pick is Blame It On Mary (#7), who may not get the respect she deserves due to her muddled form lines. However, if you ignore the dirt races and a strange race in July at Saratoga, all of her only turf performances make her a major player in here. She put in the best effort of her career to win over this course in September, and would be competitive here with a similar effort, even as she steps up to a tougher level. I also like that she’s drawn well outside of some other speed in a race that may not feature as fast a pace as it appears on paper.

WIN: #7 Blame It On Mary, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 1A,6

RACE 9: SEIGE OF BOSTON (#5)

I see two legitimate win candidates in this maiden special weight event that closes out the day, and I much prefer the one who figures to be a bigger price. Indemnify (#7) may take more money given the power of his connections. He’s been the odds-on favorite in all three starts, twice as part of a coupled entry. However, he’s failed to get the job done for Chad Brown, and it’s usually a red flag when horses continue to lose at short prices for this barn. Last time out he finished behind today’s rival Seige of Boston (#5), and there’s no doubt his Jimmy Toner rival ran the better race. Seige of Boston was breaking from the outside post position in a 10-horse field, and his rider never made any attempt to get near the rail. He raced 4-wide around the first turn and proceeded to make his move while 3-wide on the far turn. He actually did well to challenge for the lead in midstretch before getting turned away by early leader Steady On, who came back to win with a 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Now he takes the blinkers off, which should allow him to settle a bit better, something that has been a problem for the horse in the past. If he runs back to his most recent performance, I don’t believe Indemnify will be able to turn the tables on him.

WIN: #5 Seige of Boston, at 7-5 or greater