PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 2:   2 - 5 - 9 - 3
Race 3:   3 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 4:   2 - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 5:   12 - 1A - 15 - 14
Race 6:   7 - 9 - 11 - 10
Race 7:   3 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 8:   5 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 9:   1 - 2 - 9 - 6

PLAYS

RACE 4: VICTORY BUILT (#2)
Starship Bubba is arguably the horse to beat after just missing at a slightly lower level last time while earning a career-best 94 TimeformUS Speed Figure. How do we justify that sudden improvement? Well, he’s going out for a barn that has been winning races in bunches since the summer, often getting new top efforts out of their horses with little warning. Plus, his prior dirt form is a little more encouraging that it might seem. You can draw a line through that July 30 effort, as he lost all chance when stumbling at the start. If we can expect to see more of the horse that showed up last time he’ll be tough for these rivals to overcome. His main rival appears to be Onward, an expensive yearling purchase who drops in for a tag for the first time after not quite panning out as an allowance prospect. He faced some talented runners early in his career, but he never really progressed from there. A repeat of his maiden-breaking effort at Tampa would give him a serious chance here. While the last race was not good, it was followed by a layoff, so perhaps there was a physical issue to get over. I’m using both of these runners prominently, but I don’t fully trust either one. I instead want to take a shot with Victory Built at what should be a square price. This colt used aggressive tactics to wire a field from post 14 when breaking his maiden against state-bred maiden claimers two back. He then stepped way up in class to face starter allowance foes last time and got cooked in an early duel in a race dominated by closers. Now he’s dropping down to a more realistic level and the blinkers come off, suggesting that they may not be dead-set on making the lead this time. His form is heading in the right direction, and he put in one of his best prior efforts over a wet track, which he may encounter again on Thursday.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,7

RACE 8: FIRST LINE (#5)
Our Last Buck figures to be a heavy favorite as he steps up in class after clearing his New York-bred conditions. His recent speed figures are simply faster than those of his main rivals and he’s not actually stepping up in class from a practical sense given the weak field assembled for this level. My one concern about taking this horse at a short price is the distance. While he did have a legitimate pace excuse when second by 13 lengths in that one 9-furlong test at Saratoga over the summer, he still fell apart in the last furlong like a horse that just isn’t cut out for two turns. He has plenty of natural speed and he’s able to use that to great affect in his one-turn races, but I’m just not sure that he has the stamina to grind out a two-turn victory against quality foes. Now, perhaps there aren’t any such rivals in this field, but I think there’s at least one alternative that could prove dangerous. Three horses exit that 8th race at October 9, and the one that I want out of that affair is First Line. This gelding did not get the most comfortable trip as he was rated behind and between horses early before getting checked back in tight quarters on the far turn. I just felt he was always out of position that day, and he never really quit running even when soundly beaten in the stretch. He was overmatched in his first start against winners, but he’d be a real rival for Our Last Buck if able to get back to his maiden-winning form. There isn’t much speed in this field, and I expect Luis Rodriguez-Castro to send him to the front in attempt to secure the early lead from the favorite. The other horse that I would use at a price, primarily underneath, is Fried Rice King. He looks a little cheap, but he was running on strongly at the end of a live race last time, and he’s one who clearly wants every bit of this 9-furlong trip.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,6
Trifecta: 5,6 with 5,6 with ALL

RACE 9: UNCLE NED (#1)
It’s difficult to have much faith in the favorites in this maiden claiming finale. Unbridled John and Tri Saint Lorenzo each come in with the best recent form, but they’ve both had their fair share of chances. Unbridled John at least has speed, which should make him a gate-to-wire threat. He led for a long way after stalking a fast pace last time, only to be cut down by long-time maiden Pier Forty in the late stages. Tri Saint Lorenzo ran one of his better races when stretched out to this distance two back, closing decently for third. The problem with him is that he’s gotten into a habit of closing belatedly for minor awards. Do you really want to support him to get over the hump at a short price? I want to get a little more creative, so I’m making Uncle Ned my top pick. This horse looks hopeless at first glance, but I think a deeper examination of his form yields some glimmers of hope. He’s been overmatched in most of his races, particularly since getting claimed by the current connections. He was finally dropped in for a tag again two back at Saratoga, but he was hung out wide the entire way on a day when the rail seemed to be a slight advantage. This is by far the softest field he’s met so far in 2020, and I think cutting back to a one-turn mile is better for him.

Win/Place: 1