by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 2 - 4 - 3
Race 2: 1 - 3 - 7 - 5
Race 3: 1 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 4: 1 - 8 - 2 - 9
Race 5: 5 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 6: 4 - 8 - 1
Race 7: 5 - 2 - 9 - 8
Race 8: 1 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 9: 1 - 7 - 6 - 8
RACE 3: WILD BOAR (#1)
The one that will probably go favored is Klickitat. While his best half-sibling Evaluator did win his debut on the turf, he has subsequently proven to be a better dirt horse and the other siblings were best on dirt. Given the lack of money that he attracted that day, maybe that was just a stepping-stone to get to dirt second time out. Klickitat actually ran pretty well in that turf debut despite encountering some traffic, but he obviously needs to transfer that form to dirt. I think that one’s main rival is Wild Boar as he stretches out in distance. Wild Boar has actually run a bit better than it seems in both of his races. He was a little green in his debut while running against some pretty nice horses. Both of the top two finishers in that Aug. 30 race returned to place in stakes in subsequent starts. Wild Boar again failed to hit the board in his next start, but I thought he took a significant step forward. The winner Steam Engine was a heavy favorite who was able to ride a gold rail throughout, and Wild Boar ran a fantastic race to get within two lengths of him at the finish. Wild Boar was never inside on a day when the main track was favoring horses on or near the lead, and he had to swing widest of all into the lane. I would not be too concerned about the stretch-out since this colt’s dam was best routing on the turf. I think we’re going to see his best effort today.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,6
RACE 8: PETE’S PLAY CALL (#1)
Timber Ghost is clearly the horse to beat as he attempts to win his third straight race since returning from a layoff this summer. He has earned impressive speed figures in both of those victories and may not need to improve at all to defeat this tougher group. However, he has also benefitted from very favorable circumstances in those recent wins. TimeformUS has the tracks color-coded red, indicating speed biases, for each of those starts. Aug. 19 at Saratoga was a day that strongly favored inside speed runners, and he rode that bias while coasting to victory. Then last time, not only did benefit from the track profile, but he was allowed to set a very slow pace. It’s unclear if he can put in a top effort without the early lead, and he’s unlikely to get it here with Still Krz in the race. I’m using him, but I think others will offer better value. I’m most interested in the pair exiting the Sep. 29 race at this level. Both the winner and runner-up beat the bias that day, as that was yet another day at Belmont Park that was favoring horses racing on the rail. Life in Shambles ran well to win that race, and Jason Servis has clearly gotten him back to some of his better efforts since the claim this summer. That said, he’s always been a horse that has preferred Belmont Park and I wonder if he can continue to hold this form together as he switches venues. Pete’s Play Call has steadily been rounding back into form for Robertino Diodoro and I thought he ran just as well as Life in Shambles despite losing to that foe last time. At this best, Pete’s Play Call is one of the few horses in this field fast enough to beat Timber Ghost. Notably, he ran the best race of his career over this surface at this distance last November.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5
Trifecta: 1 with 2,5 with 2,4,5,6
RACE 9: ARTHUR’S HOPE (#1)
This race is likely to be affected by scratches with both Benevolence and Tribecca racing as main-track-only runners on Wednesday’s card. Even without those two participating, there appears to be a fair amount of early speed signed on for this race. Bavaro, Stoney Bennett, and Rectify all need to be forwardly placed in the early going to have a chance. Morning-line favorite Morning Breez should not be too far off them while in stalking range. This Carlos Martin trainee is the horse to beat in this race, but I’m not totally sure what to expect out of him. At his best, he’s likely to beat this field, but he’s not always guaranteed to put forth a top effort. He responded very well to the quick turnaround in October, as he ran a career-best speed figure just two days after failing to get involved in an off-the-turf race. I’m concerned about him coming back just a month later, and I’m skeptical that he can put top efforts back-to-back. I think the closers could sit the right trip. The obvious one to consider is Sicilia Mike, who has been in excellent form for Gary Sciacca in recent months. He ran well at Belmont last time, but the horse that I want to bet out of that race is Arthur’s Hope. He completely blew the start, as he reared up and spotted the field by around five or six lengths. Considering that massive disadvantage, he actually did quite well to make a middle move into contention on the far turn. He ranged up right alongside Sicilia Mike at the top of the stretch prior to flattening out. If Arthur’s Hope can repeat that kind of effort while working out a clean trip from off the pace, I think he’s a major threat to the top contenders at what should be a square price. Another horse that I want to include at what should be a decent price is Horoscope. I know his recent form has been disappointing, but you can make excuses for a number of his poor efforts, and I want to give him another chance getting back on a fast track.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,6,7,8