PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 2:   7 - 8 - 6 - 3
Race 3:   1 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 4:   1 - 9 - 8 - 7
Race 5:   7 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 6:   5 - 1 - 8 - 2
Race 7:   10 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 8:   5 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 9:   7 - 1 - 5 - 10

TOP PLAYS

RACE 4: MOMENTIEMPO (#1)
Generally, I don't want the horses coming out of the race that Merger Arbitrage is exiting. She finished second against a pretty mediocre field for this level, and I feel that others are going to offer better value. Two viable alternatives are Rain on the Dune and Pounds to Pennies. The former makes her first start in this country for Graham Motion, who has pretty solid numbers with foreign shippers coming off layoffs, and the latter closed well against a decent maiden field last time. I'll use both of them, but the horse that interests me most at a more attractive price is Momentiempo. This filly made her turf debut last fall at Aqueduct while still a two-year-old, and caught a weird turf course that was very demanding and slow. She raced relatively close to the pace early and got caught in behind some tiring runners in the stretch. She didn't run particularly well that day, but I think she deserves another chance. She is a half-sister to Grade 1 turf winner Time and Motion, so she is certainly bred to handle this surface.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,7,8,9

RACE 6: DESERT ISLE (#5)
Fly So High and Miss Aliphant are going to take plenty of money in this spot, but I don't really want the horses coming out of the Oct. 8 maiden race that both of them are exiting. The entire field finished up slowly that day, and the winner came back to disappoint in her first start against winners last week. Fly So High in particular has a right to improve with this stretch-out in distance, but Shug McGaughey's runners are often overbet in these situations. Instead, I prefer Desert Isle. She may have been facing a tougher group of horses in her debut at Keeneland, and I like the race she ran that day. She never appeared particularly comfortable racing behind horses, and required plenty of motivation from her rider to get into top gear. However, once she did finally work her way into the clear in the stretch, she finished powerfully down the center of the track and was moving best of all late. She's bred to stretch out in distance as a half-sister to route stakes winners Deceptive Vision and Eye of the Leopard.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,8,9

RACE 7: OLD UPSTART (#10)
This looks like the perfect spot for Old Upstart. He's always been best at a mile, having finished in the exacta in half of his 12 starts going this distance on the dirt. I really liked the way he finished off his last race after dropping well off the pace in the early going. Six furlongs is just a little too short for him, but he was quickly cutting into Schivarelli's winning margin at the end of that race. He's drawn perfectly in the outside post position today, so he should work out a decent trip from midpack. I prefer him over the other runners that are going to take money. J S Bach is hard to trust as he returns off a lengthy layoff. Point Hope will be formidable if he repeats his last effort, but he can be somewhat unreliable.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,3,5,6

RACE 8: DREAM DOCTOR (#5)
Grand Sky absolutely dominated at this level two back at Saratoga, and he would be pretty formidable if he gets back to that effort. While he was facing tougher company last time out, I was pretty disappointed in his effort. He didn't show the improved tactical speed that was on display at Saratoga and just never seemed fully comfortable. I worry that his form is starting to tail off, and I want to take a shot against him here. Horses like Banana Thief and Whiskey Seven are perfectly logical, but neither of them figures to offer significant value. Instead, I have to bet Dream Doctor on the turnback. I've always thought that shorter distances were better for this horse, but he's consistently been asked to race at distances of a mile or farther throughout this career. He might have been best when going six furlongs in his debut a couple of years ago, and he showed an explosive turn of foot at seven furlongs last year. I think he can wake up here at a pretty generous price.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4,8,9