PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 2:   4 - 13 - 12 - 7
Race 3:   4 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 4:   16 - 15 - 14 - 12
Race 5:   8 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 6:   4 - 8 - 12 - 3
Race 7:   10 - 9 - 1 - 6
Race 8:   3 - 4 - 8 - 7
Race 9:   6 - 9 - 10 - 1A

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 5: WARRIOR IN CHIEF (#8)

I can’t take Its All Relevant (#1) as the favorite after he’s disappointed twice at odds-on prices in his last couple of starts. This 9-year-old gelding is an admirable competitor, but he’s seen better days and just doesn’t appear to have the finishing ability that he once possessed. Both horses who finished ahead of him last time are back in this lineup, including winner Runabout (#3). He’s probably tough for some to endorse off the claim for Amira Chichackly, but it is worth noting that he’s actually been in her barn before and ran reasonably well. I think he’s hard to dismiss in his current form cycle, but I did prefer others. Double Shot (#6) is a little interesting on the stretch-out in distance as he goes first off the claim for Michelle Nevin. He’s actually been somewhat competitive going a mile before, but that was a long time ago. He’s traditionally been a deep closer, but he has shown better tactical speed in recent starts, which could bode well for his chances here. My top pick is Warrior in Chief (#8). I was pretty encouraged by this 4-year-old’s effort off the trainer switch to Ray Handal last time. His form had been tailing off for the prior barn, but he completely turned things around returning from a two-month break for Handal. He stalked Its All Relevant early, couldn’t quite keep up in upper stretch, but then switched outside of Runabout late and came on again for second. This horse has plenty of back class and is dangerous here if he’s suddenly heading back in the right direction. He’s also drawn perfectly in the outside post position.

WIN: #8 Warrior in Chief, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 8: FOOLISH GHOST (#3)

Though I’m not convinced he’ll be the favorite, I do think Unique Unions (#4) is the horse to beat. He put in a pretty encouraging effort last time in his first attempt at this level. The pace of that race was extremely fast, and he did well to chase down the leader before getting swallowed up by closers. This gelding has been steadily improving for months now, and appears to be coming into this in razor sharp form for a barn that has been having a bit of a renaissance as of late. He may not be quite as naturally fast as some others, but the apprentice figures to leave for early position. Sheriff Bianco (#7) could go favored off his 11-length victory on the switch to dirt last time. Linda Rice decided to keep him in that off the turf affair despite entering this horse for grass, and that decision proved revelatory. He wasn’t beating a field nearly as good as this one, but he ran an awfully fast race. He doesn’t need to be in front, as he displayed last time, and is drawn well outside. Yet I’m actually a little more interested in Linda Rice’s other runner. Foolish Ghost (#3) is most dangerous when he can shake loose on the front end. That didn’t happen in either of his last two starts, as he got outrun to the lead by some extremely fast foes both times. He actually ran pretty well against open company two back, but was seemingly discouraged last time, fading badly in the stretch He won at this level three back at Belmont when he was able to get the lead, and he might be able to get to the front here, since he’s faster than Unique Unions and doesn’t figure to get too much pressure from his stablemate. The wild card in this field is Advanced Strategy (#8), who finally returns to dirt for the first time since the winter of 2021. He actually ran quite well in his last couple of dirt starts, particularly on Feb. 13 when he overcame a rail bias. However, his recent turf form is somewhat inconsistent and the turnback to 6 furlongs might not be ideal.

WIN: #3 Foolish Ghost, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 4,8