by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   5 - 2 - 9 - 4
Race 2:   1 - 8 - 4 - 7
Race 3:   8 - 7 - 4 - 6
Race 4:   5 - 10 - 9 - 1
Race 5:   6 - 2 - 7 - 11
Race 6:   7 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 7:   8 - 7 - 5 - 2
Race 8:   5 - 8 - 12 - 6
Race 9:   4 - 9 - 5 - 12

PLAYS

 
RACE 1: PLEASE THE PHAROAH (#5)
North Carolina and Conquer the World figure to vie for favoritism here after finishing second and third, respectively, in a similar race at this level last month at Belmont. The main difference is that they’re now stretching out an extra furlong, and perhaps that will work in the favor of Conquer the World. This son of Curlin is bred to run all day and did seem to be staying on well at the end of that Oct. 24 affair. However, he got a great pocket trip that day and still couldn’t capitalize. North Carolina figures to control the pace once again after leading until the final strides last time. I suppose the distance is more of a question for him, but he’s always trained like a good horse and just seems to finally be putting it all together. Chad Brown has a pair of entrants, but I’m not thrilled with either one. Balthus was a major disappointment on debut, though I suppose he can do better with experience. And I’ve just never thought much of Conglomerate, who has rarely been competitive despite earning some decent speed figures. I want to go in a different direction with a bigger price. Please the Pharoah finished behind both favorites last time out, but he had a right to need that race coming off the layoff. He was towards the back early in a race dominated near the front end, and he had to wait for room in upper stretch. This long-striding son of American Pharoah seems like one that will relish every bit of added ground he can get, and I think we have yet to see the best he has to offer.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,9
 

RACE 3: TROUBLESHOOTER (#8)
Nicky the Vest is the headline attraction in this New York-bred optional claimer. We only saw him twice last winter, but he was impressive on both occasions. He beat a good field of maidens to win his debut with authority, and then walloped a field of overmatched stakes rivals in the Gander. He was competing on a day that featured a rail bias last time, but he wasn’t right on the rail until the stretch, stalking in the two-path for most of his trip. He’s a legitimate talent, but it’s obviously a concern that he was forced to miss so much time. Jonathan Thomas is just 1 for 12 (8%, $0.74 ROI) off layoffs of 6 months or more on dirt over the past 5 years. That said, this colt has been working well and looks ready to deliver a solid effort. The problem is that he needs to improve to beat this field, as a few have already run faster speed figures. His main rival appears to be Thorny Tale, who has been a revelation under the conditioning of Jamie Ness at Parx this year. This gelding had shown ability early in his career, but went badly off form for a few local trainers. Yet he was claimed for $12,500 by Ness in January and has looked like a stakes-caliber runner ever since. If he brings his Parx form to Aqueduct, he’ll be formidable. Ness has just one victory in the past 5 years at NYRA, but his horses have run better here in the last year than the stats indicate. I’d certainly be scared of this one. Since I don’t trust either favorite, I want to find some alternative, and the best one that I can come up with is Troubleshooter. This massive gelding by Into Mischief has always hinted at having ability but it’s taken him a long time to put it together in the afternoon. He showed some signs of life at Saratoga two back, but he really woke up last time at Belmont. He traveled strongly throughout and burst clear of the pack late to win by a convincing 3 lengths. He was 21-1 that day, but it’s not as if he’s going to be that short a price coming back against tougher company here. He’s clearly heading in the right direction, and should get an honest pace ahead of him.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 4,6,7
Trifecta: 8 with 4,7 with 4,5,6,7
 

RACE 5: SALS DREAM GIRL (#6)
Saratoga Chrome has been the best horse in both career turf starts, but she’s managed to remain a maiden. She was controversially disqualified out of an apparent victory at Saratoga two back, and then failed to get up last time when losing position on the far turn before making a belated bid. She obviously has the ability to break through at this level, but now her form is fully exposed and she’s arguably stepping up to facing a tougher, more competitive field than she’s faced in her last two starts. Her main rival is Russiarussiarussia, who closed well for second in her career debut at Belmont on the same day that Saratoga Chrome last ran. Russiarussiarussia exits the faster division of the two races, though Saratoga Chrome achieved a better closing split through the last quarter. They’re both contenders, but neither one possesses that much tactical speed, so they both could be at the mercy of pace once again. There are also plenty of others to consider, including first time starter New Ginya. This daughter of Tonalist is out of a dam who was an 8-time turf winner, and she worked well at a sale earlier this year. Yet I want to go in a different direction with a more experienced option. Sals Dream Girl is a filly that I’ve been chasing a bit, and I will give up if she doesn’t run well here. That said, I think there are valid excuses for her first two starts. She broke slowly and was ridden without any urgency in her debut, just coasting along at the back of the pack. She got a rider switch for her second start and showed improved early speed, but couldn’t sustain it over a dirt surface. Now she’s getting back to turf, which she’s always been meant for, and I’m hoping she can be forwardly placed again. This daughter of Constitution had worked well on grass prior to her debut, and I think there’s more to her than the results so far would indicate.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,7,9,11
 

RACE 7: VALMONT (#8)
The TimeformUS Pace Projector isn’t predicting a situation favoring any particular running style in this New York-bred optional claimer, but I don’t see that much speed signed on. Freewheeler was depicted as the early leader on the Pace Projector, but now he's scratched. I think Valmont is going to the front here, and I believe he’s a major threat to lead this field from gate to wire. Some will be deterred by the presence of Jalon Samuel, but he rode this horse very well to a minor award at this level two back. Valmont encountered some traffic last time at Monmouth, so I don’t want to be too hard on him for that loss. Furthermore, impressive winner High Light Room might be faster than any rival he meets in today’s race. I don’t think he’s the best horse in this race, but I can envision him working out a favorable setup and there are some others in here at much short prices that I just don’t trust. Shiraz is always some kind of factor in these races, but he’s never been the most reliable win candidate and his recent form is fairly spotty. I suppose some might consider Dancing Buck the horse to beat off his runner-up finish at this level last time. However, I thought he got a great trip that day, allowed to dole out fairly slow fractions up front before yielding to Call Me Harry in the stretch. Perhaps turning back to 6 furlongs will work out for him, but I don’t think he has any significant edge over this field. My bomb to use underneath is Steelersfanforlife. This horse did not get the right trip off the layoff last time and can do better, though 6 furlongs may be a little sharp for him.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,4,5,7
Trifecta: 8 with 5,7 with 2,4,5,7,11
 

RACE 9: SENSIBLECONCLUSION (#4)
There are a couple of experienced runners in this field dropping out of maiden special weight company. Juggler and Bointheback both make a fair amount of sense as they get the class relief that they seem to need. The former tried turf last time, but his prior dirt sprint form was solid. He just wasn’t quite good enough to win those maiden special weight events, often settling for minor awards. The same goes for Bointheback, who compiled a consistent set of speed figures to start his career before regressing last time. His recent poor effort is of slightly more concern than that of Juggler but it would hardly be a surprise if he bounced back for Tony Dutrow. I prefer them to those who have been competing against much weaker fields in maiden claiming races. Yet there are some first time starters to consider, and one in particular interests me. Sensibleconclusion, a homebred for Merrylegs Farm, makes his debut for the tag and has some pedigree to be a runner. This colt is a half-brother to Troubleshooter, who competes in Race 3, and is by 15% juvenile debut sire Overanalyze. Ray Handal doesn’t have a longterm reputation for winning with debut runners, but he is 5 for 20 (25%, $2.30 ROI) with first time starters in dirt sprints over the past 2 years. This colt has worked in company with Handal’s well-bet debut winner last week, Thinking It Over, and appears to have some ability.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 5,6,9,12