PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 2:   6 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 3:   10 - 11 - 12 - 7
Race 4:   2 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 5:   11 - 1 - 5 - 7
Race 6:   4 - 8 - 3 - 2
Race 7:   9 - 7 - 3 - 10
Race 8:   3 - 2 - 10 - 7
Race 9:   7 - 5 - 8 - 1

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 4

Kupp (#1) could go favored here as he makes his second start off the claim for Michelle Nevin. His recent form makes him a solid fit at this level, but I don’t fully trust him to see this out going 6 1/2 furlongs, especially if he’s under the gun from the rail. This horse can get a bit faint-hearted in the late stages, and he figures to get some early pressure from a few to his outside. Narciso Dali (#5) is an intriguing class dropper. He’s been competing in a series of races where he was badly overmatched, and now he’s dropping into a much more logical spot. His early speed figures to play well here, but I am a little concerned about the turnback in distance. This barn has always been very cold for much of the year. My top pick is Joking Way (#2). Many will view this as a negative trainer switch, claimed away from Linda Rice. Yet Jesus Romero is a trainer who has overachieved with limited stock. While he is 0 for 5 first off the claim, 2 runners in that sample finished second at odds of 32-1 and 21-1. Joking Way had the ability to beat a field like this at one point, and his last effort was a step back in the right direction. I like the confident move up in class off the claim, and he figures to get the right kind of trip tracking the speed.

Fair Value:
#2 JOKING WAY, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 5

The horse to beat in this first division of a 2-year-old New York-bred maiden event on turf is Naughty Destiny (#1). She ran well on debut under these same conditions, overcoming a wide draw to gain ground through the stretch in a solid effort. She didn’t take much money that day, and might still have some upside in her second start for a barn that does very well with youngsters. I’m not against her by any means, but she is fairly obvious. There are also a few first time starters in here, including Miss City Girl (#4), another from the Clement barn who is a full-sister to their multiple stakes winner City Man. Among the firsters, I’m most intrigued by No Layups (#5), who goes out for Chad Brown. She’s out of a multiple turf-winning dam who has already produced 2 turf winners, including the solid allowance type Timbuktu. Yet I generally prefer runners with experience in these races, and I think there’s one drawn outside who may fly under the radar. She Takes Cash (#11) debuted against open company at the Meadowlands in September. The race didn’t come up particularly fast from a speed figure standpoint, but the race was dominated by a couple of promising Chad Brown trainees. She Takes Cash lacked early speed, but was constantly advancing through the second half of the race, and continued to show late interest despite the fact that no one else was making up significant ground. Now she adds blinkers and should be capable of better in her second start for David Duggan, whose horses tend to do better with experience.

Fair Value:
#11 SHE TAKES CASH, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 8

The primary question in this optional claimer centers around morning line favorite Winit (#10), and what we might get from him as he returns from a layoff. This grey son of Tapit has always had ability, but putting it all together in the afternoons has been a problem. Last year, he was often slow away from the gate, and would then get too keen, forcing his riders to make premature moves. He showed talent whenever he was able to relax and stay focused, but he seemed to sabotage himself more often than not. However, perhaps we should expect a different Winit now that he’s returning as a new gelding. Horses with his behavioral issues can often benefit from being gelded, and his impressive series of workouts leading into this return would seem to suggest he’s doing well. Yet he still is coming off a layoff for a barn whose runners typically need a start, and it’s not like he’s going to be some enticing price. I’m more interested in another layoff runner, who actually finished just behind Winit when last seen. I Am the Law (#2) appeared to be in career form when last seen, overcoming his previous habit of settling for minor awards. Once the connections focused on dirt routes with him, he seemed to take that next step forward. He ran his best race going 9 furlongs, but did handle the mile when last seen, closing well through the slop after negotiating some traffic. The big difference between he and Winit is that his trainer John Terranova is 10 for 29 (34%, $3.58 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs on dirt over the past 5 years. There are others to consider with more recency and a few will be bigger prices. My top pick is Synthesis (#3). His recent form looks pretty discouraging, but I think there are some reasons to believe he can turn things around here. Stretching out to a mile might seem counterintuitive, but he was actually quite proficient at route distances before entering David Jacobson’s barn. He’s run some of his best races during the last year going 7 furlongs, so I don’t think the mile is much of a stretch. It’s surely a better fit than those Grade 1 races he contested over the summer, or that 5 1/2 furlong sprint at Laurel without much pace. Notably, the last time he stretched out following a Laurel sprint at that distance, he rebounded with a 10-1 victory in one of his career-best efforts this spring. I think he can be placed more forwardly going this distance, and I like the rider switch to Jose Lezcano.

Fair Value:
#3 SYNTHESIS, at 6-1 or greater