by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   5 - 6 - 1 - 11
Race 2:   4 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 3:   4 - 8 - 10 - 5
Race 4:   6 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 5:   3 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 6:   3 - 1 - 10 - 4
Race 7:   2 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 8:   4 - 1 - 6 - 8

PLAYS

 
RACE 1: TRUMPIT (#5)
I’m actually pleased that this first race has been taken off the turf, because there’s a horse entered as a Main Track Only who interests me a great deal. I don’t have a major knock against the likely favorite J J Jen, who is dropping down to the maiden claiming level for the first time and actually didn’t run as badly as it might seem last time. However, I have to bet that aforementioned Main Track Only entrant Trumpit as she finally gets back on dirt. Her only dirt race resulted in a nondescript fifth place finish which many will simply overlook. However, while that race received a slow Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figure, almost every horse to come out of that spot improved in their next start. Of the 12 horses to run back, 11 improved their figures and one regressed. Those who improved did so by anywhere from 10 to 47 TimeformUS speed-figure points, averaging out to a 21-point improvement. On the Beyer scale, they improved by anywhere from 2 to 47 points, averaging out to a 23-point improvement in their next starts. For her part, Trumpit didn’t get away to a sharp start that day, breaking about a length slowly, and she actually did fairly well to rally for fifth while altering course in the stretch. She’s been campaigned on turf since then, a surface that she’s never run particularly well over, but based on the evidence of this one dirt start, she may be able to do better on the switch back to the main track.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,6,9,11
 

RACE 3: FIVE ALARM ROBIN (#4)
Zabava seems like the horse to beat as she moves back to turf after failing to make a serious impact in an off-the-turf race at Churchill. She’s strung together a series of solid turf efforts dating back to her victory at Belmont in June and she figures to be tough to beat if she merely holds that form. However, she doesn’t possess much early speed and there isn’t an abundance of pace signed on for this race. The horse who figures to lead them early is Mike’s Girl, an impressive winner when stretched out to this distance for the first time in her most recent start at Belmont. A repeat of that performances makes her a major player once again, despite the rise in class, and it’s not as if she figures to receive much early pressure. I’m definitely using her defensively, but there’s one rival who might be able to work out a decent trip and pose a threat. Five Alarm Robin started out her career facing some pretty nice horses. She lost to eventual stakes winner Catch a Bid in her second start and was highly competitive in a couple of starts at the maiden special weight level thereafter. She disappointed as the 6-5 favorite when initially dropped in against maiden-claiming company two back, though she had a legitimate excuse that day in the form of a rough trip. Some may view it as a negative that she was risked for $20,000 at the Meadowlands last time, but she nevertheless delivered a dominant performance in victory. Now Jeremiah Englehart moves her back into a protected spot and she’s one of the few fillies in this field with the prior speed figures to suggest she can challenge Zabava. Furthermore, her tactical speed should ensure she gets a fair chance.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 5,8,9,10
 

RACE 4: JAKE ROCKS (#6)
This is an unusual maiden special weight event in that a filly is likely to go off as a significant favorite in a race for open company. Tan and Tight lost as the favorite against her own gender last time but she nevertheless has earned a series of speed figures that suggest she is clearly the horse to beat against this field of males. That’s primarily due to the fact that many of her counterparts have recently competed at the maiden-claiming level and are thus ceding a class edge to the Chad Brown filly. I don’t have a major knock against Tan and Tight, but I also wouldn’t want to take too short a price on a horse who has gotten close without sealing the deal in all four career starts. Hard Count and Bye Bye Nicky, also a filly, make some sense as alternatives, but the former has done his best work in route races and the latter has a history of quitting in the late stages of her races. I want to get a bit more creative so I’m taking a shot with first-time turfer Jake Rocks. On the surface of things, it might not seem like this runner has a ton of turf pedigree. His dam has produced one turf winner who appeared to be equally talented on dirt. However, there are some additional signs that this runner may appreciate a surface switch. It might surprise some to learn that New Year’s Day’s progeny win 18% of their turf starts, a remarkably high win rate for a relatively low-profile sire. Furthermore, this colt sold for a hefty sum as a 2-year-old after working an impressive 20 4/5 seconds over the synthetic track at OBS, sometimes indicative of turf ability. This colt has subtly improved following recent barn switches, and he’s not landing in the toughest spot as he tries a new surface.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,5,7
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 3,4,5,7
 

RACE 6: SARATOGA COLONEL (#3)
I suppose Wicked Freud is the horse to beat as he returns after finishing a solid third against a tougher field of open rivals. A repeat of that performance makes him formidable here, but I’m a little concerned about the quick turnaround. Over the past five years, Servis is 0 for 11 with runners returning in nine days or less, so I’m willing to look elsewhere. Gambler’s Fallacy gets a needed drop in class for Chad Brown and will make his first start for a tag after picking up some minor awards at the N2X level. However, his lack of speed is always a concern and I worry he’ll be overbet given the rider switch to Irad Ortiz Jr., especially considering that his speed figures don’t make him particularly formidable against this group. Given my reservations about the shorter prices, I want to look for some value and I think we can find it with Saratoga Colonel. In my opinion, George Weaver is just being realistic by pointing to this $25,000 claimer instead of moving him up to the N2X NY-bred allowance level. He made his first turf start with blinkers at Belmont last time and he put forth one of the best efforts of his career, gamely holding sway after making a wide, sweeping move to the lead in upper stretch. Some may dismiss that as a fluke given his 29- 1 odds, but I think there are reasons to take him seriously here. He clearly ran a better race with the blinkers and horses have come back out of that Sept. 22 affair to do very well in recent months, suggesting it may be a stronger race than it initially seemed. I like his running style and he has another top rider aboard. The other horse that I would use at a big price is Leaveematthegate. He was competitive in much tougher New York-bred spots last year and has just been overmatched against open company in his limited appearances this year. He should appreciate the drop in class.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,9,10