by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 2: 6 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 3: 16 - 5 - 11 - 2
Race 4: 7 - 8 - 3 - 5
Race 5: 6 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 6: 6 - 16 - 2 - 3
Race 7: 7 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 8: 5 - 4 - 9 - 7
Race 9: 10 - 3 - 11 - 12
RACE 1: GATTINO MARRONE (#1)
If she runs back to her debut and handles the stretch-out to a mile, Lem Me Have It is probably going to win this race. She earned an unusually fast speed figure for her runner-up effort, and she ran very well within the context of that race. The early pace was not fast at all, and this filly launched a prolonged, wide rally to carry her into second in a race where no one else made that kind of closing move. While she ran like a closing sprinter in her debut, she’s actually bred to handle more distance. Her dam was best on turf, but she was definitely more of a route type. I’m using her prominently, but she’s going to be an awfully short price, and there are others to consider. The two most obvious alternatives are Galadriel’s Light and Awesome Alana. The former ran very well in her debut and may appreciate the return to maiden company after trying a stakes last time. Awesome Alana was compromised by a wide trip against a rail bias in her debut, but she’s going to have to run a lot faster to compete here. I’d rather bet Gattino Marrone, who earned a similar speed figure in her debut and figures to go off at a much more enticing price. This Big Brown filly did not get the best trip in that race, as she was buried inside behind the tiring front-runners approaching the quarter pole and was jostled about in upper stretch when trying to angle out. She never really found a clear path, which probably cost a better placing. Her dam’s only win came at seven furlongs on dirt, and she was bred to possess some stamina, so I’m not overly concerned about the stretch-out.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,6
RACE 5: TAKE IT TO SCALE (#6)
Dark Ops is a difficult horse to assess. He had trained very well early in his career, which led to him getting bet down to short prices in a number of his races. For a long time, he looked like nothing more than a disappointment in the afternoon, but he turned things around last time. He had run deceptively well first time off the layoff for Jeremiah Englehart after getting involved in a fast pace, and he took a major leap forward on Oct. 8. He ran away from the field in the stretch, earning an impressive speed figure in the process. A repeat of that performance would almost certainly guarantee him a victory against this field. However, he may face an obstacle in the form of Three to Thirteen. This horse also has speed, and I’m not sure that Dark Ops can run that same race while withstanding early pressure. I’m definitely using this favorite prominently, but I don’t think he’s completely trustworthy. I want to take a shot against him with Take It to Scale. He’s not the most reliable runner either, but at least he’s going to be a square price. He ran well to beat a claiming field two back and appeared to be heading in the right direction after getting risked for a bottom-level tag at Saratoga. His first start off the claim for the Tony Dutrow barn was highly disappointing, but I think you can make some excuses for that performance. Six furlongs is simply too short for this horse, and he could never get involved after breaking slowly and getting shuffled out of position on the backstretch. I know he’s better than that, and I think it’s a positive sign that Dutrow is now running him back on short rest without a significant drop in class. He figures to work out a favorable stalking trip just in behind the two speeds.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with ALL