PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 8 - 5 - 7
Race 2:   7 - 1X - 3 - 1A - 2
Race 3:   4 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 4:   11 - 10 - 7 - 2
Race 5:   2 - 1 - 8 - 7
Race 6:   15 - 13 - 14 - 8
Race 7:   4 - 10 - 7 - 1
Race 8:   3 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 9:   3 - 10 - 1/1A - 2

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: BLANK SLATE (#2)
I’m against the horses exiting the first race on October 28. Instead, I much prefer the new faces. Interrogation figures to attract some attention as she comes off the layoff for Christophe Clement. Despite running eleventh, she actually didn’t perform that badly in her debut and only finished so far back due to traffic in the stretch. This filly is bred to be a runner as a half-sister to a few six-figure earners on turf. Chad Brown also has a pair. Pavini is likely to take more money as she comes in from France, but I’m more interested in Blank Slate. She didn’t do much running in her Gulfstream Park debut. However, over the past five years, Chad Brown is 5 for 18 (28 percent, $2.28 ROI) with second-time starting maidens in turf routes of layoffs of 180 days or more. She should appreciate the stretch out, since her dam was Grade 3-placed going as far as 1 1/2 miles.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,7,8

RACE 2: ABDAAR (#7)
The three-horse entry is likely to go favored, assuming that they all start. The part of the entry likely to attract the most attention is Are We Not Men, who has run well in recent starts and drops in class again. If he repeats his last race, he’s going to win. However, I think the other parts of the entry are going to force down his price, and I don’t really like them at all. Therefore, I want to take a shot with someone else, and Abdaar looks like the perfect alternative. This horse has obviously had some issues in his career, but he’s now making his third start off the layoff for David Jacobson and appears to be rounding back into form. He’s not a sprinter, and stretching back out in distance last time worked for him. That came against cheaper, but Jacobson does well in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 19 for 51 (37 percent, $2.81 ROI) with last-out winners in dirt routes running for a claiming tag of $20,000 or less.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3

RACE 5: COMBAT CONTROLLER (#2)
Baratti may win this race if he runs his prior dirt speed figures, but he’s really plunging in class as his connections are clearly giving up on him. Generally, he’s the kind of horse that is a disappointment more often than not, and I’d rather not take him at a short price. I’d much rather bet the runner posted just to his outside, Combat Controller. It’s a positive sign that he ran as well as he did going a sprint distance last time, since he really prefers going a mile or farther. He should love the stretch-out that he gets in this race, and David Jacobson has solid numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 13 for 46 (28 percent, $2.31 ROI) second off the claim with runners stretching out from sprints to dirt routes.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,8

RACE 7: DANCING BREEZE (#4)
Rymska was installed as the tepid morning-line favorite, and I’m definitely afraid of this Chad Brown runner. She was beating a weaker field last time at Laurel, but she did it the right way, making a sustained wide run around the far turn before proving superior in the lane. She showed real promise as a two-year-old and seems to have taken a step forward this year. I think she’s the horse to beat, but I’m afraid of the pair that were part of the close finish in last month’s Pebbles at Belmont. That said, both Thais and Party Boat got favorable trips that day in a race where the narrow winner Rubilinda was much the best. I’ll use all of them, I think the horse that will offer the best value is Dancing Breeze. I know she only faced allowance company last time, but winner Abbreviate is a very talented horse for Chad Brown. The flow of that race did not favor Dancing Breeze, as she broke slowly and was very rank through the early stages, throwing her head around and steadying down the backstretch. She finally got on track late, but just had too much left to do. This filly figures to get a more honest pace to close into this time.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,7,10

RACE 9: LILL MAVE (#3)
I suppose that the horses exiting the fourth race on October 27 bring the strongest credentials to the table. In particular, Acorn Street and Bird Key ran well in that race. Acorn Street was contesting honest fractions and held well for fourth. Bird Key never really threatened for a placing, but she lost all chance around the far turn when she spun out into the center of the course. I’ll use both of them, but the runner that interests me most is actually a first-time starter. Lill Mave has some sneaky turf pedigree, and I think she could fly under the radar in this field. Twirling Candy has proven to be a fantastic turf sire in his first few crops, winning with a remarkable 19% of his turf runners in a fairly large sample. While his dam didn’t excel on turf herself, she is a half-sister to an Argentine Group 1 winner on turf. Ray Handal can connect with a longshot, and this filly drew a nice post position.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,10