by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 2: 8 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 3: 1 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 4: 8 - 10 - 3 - 6
Race 5: 4 - 12 - 9 - 7
Race 6: 2 - 12 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 7: 5 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 8: 5 - 8 - 3 - 4
Race 9: 7 - 10 - 1 - 6
RACE 2: DANNY CALIFORNIA (#8)
Graded On a Curve is clearly the horse to beat as he tries to break through this N1X level in his fourth try. While he’s raced competitively in all of his starts against winners, he often finds one or two foes that are just better than him. He encountered his best opportunity to break through this condition two back when he had dead aim at eventual winner Opt in the stretch and just couldn’t forge past. A similar effort might get the job done against this field, but he’s going to be a short price and there are others in this race that can perform up to the same level. One of those is Jo’s Bold Cat, but he has the same issue as Graded On a Curve. He rarely wins races, as his 3 for 32 lifetime record would indicate. Though, at least he did take down a starter allowance field at Laurel two back. He, along with the favorite, needs some pace to close into and he may get it with longshots like River Knight and Knight Frost likely to show speed. If I’m going to take a closer in this race, I want to shop for some better value, and I think Danny California offers that. This gelding made his first start off the claim for the Orlando Noda barn last time and he actually ran a lot better than his finishing position would indicate. He’s a closer who was badly compromised by a lack of pace in that race, and that disadvantage was compounded by the fact that the kickback situation on the main track was very detrimental to closers during that week. He had previously shown an affinity for turf when facing cheaper company under Jorge Abreu’s care. It appears that he’s improved since then, so it stands to reason that he can put forth a better turf effort now.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,4,5,6
RACE 3: FABULOUS FUN (#1)
Prohibitive favorite Fast Break narrowly lost both career starts at Monmouth, but he did so while earning a pair of TimeformUS Speed Figures that are higher than any of his rivals have achieved. He broke well in that 6-furlong debut and showed good speed before fading without a major excuse. He was more conservatively ridden last time and appeared to have the eventual winner collared at the eighth pole before giving it up late. Therefore, this turnback to 7 furlongs should be ideal and he figures to be awfully tough if he merely repeats either of those prior efforts. I’m not against him, but there are others to consider. Mutakaamil has yet to live up to his excellent pedigree – by top sire Tapit out of a stakes-winning dam who is a halfsister to Breeders’ Cup Marathon winner Eldaafer. Given all of those route influences, it’s reasonable to expect that he’ll appreciate any extra ground he can get. He pretty green first out as a 2-year-old, but showed improvement in his second start, closing well behind subsequent stakes winner Mihos. His return at Keeneland wasn’t great, but he was running on at the end in a race that didn’t exactly set up for closers. I’m using him, but my top pick is Fabulous Fun. There was some buzz about this well-bred Phipps colt when he made his debut at Saratoga in 2018. He attracted some money that day and showed good speed before fading in what seemed like a loaded race. It took him 15 months to get back to the races and he didn’t get any class relief upon return, running into a pair of talented rivals. He was off awkwardly that day and made a brief middle move on the turn before flattening out. He has continued to train well and he should be more effective here given a clean break.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 1 with 2,4 with 2,3,4,5
RACE 5: FAIR HAIRED BOY (#4)
Chapalu figures to vie for favoritism here, and there’s no denying this colt’s ample talent. That was clearly on display when he broke his maiden two back at Keeneland, since he became very unsettled heading into the clubhouse turn, fighting his rider. Yet he still kicked for home strongly once set down in the lane, the mark of a very good racehorse. However, those concerns about his demeanor were only exacerbated last time in the Grey. While he got the job done, he ran off too aggressively under restraint in the early going and then was drifting out badly in the lane. If he shows those same bad habits in this full field on the inner turf course, he could be in trouble. His main rival might be Pixelate, who showed shocking improvement in his stakes debut last time, closing resolutely to be a narrow second in the Awad. I could also use the New York-bred debut winner Homeland, who ran like a colt who may have needed a start in his debut yet still got the job done with an impressive turn of foot. I’m use all of them prominently, but I think this is a spot in which we can get a bit more creative. Therefore, I’m taking a shot with Fair Haired Boy. I acknowledge that this colt has to improve again to beat this field, but Pixelate is a great example of how much one of these lightly raced 2-year-olds can progress from one start to the next. Fair Haired Boy showed potential in his first couple of starts and ran deceptively well in the Laurel Futurity last time, closing determinedly in deep stretch after encountering some trouble early. It’s interesting that Irad Ortiz takes over this mount for some capable connections.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 7,8,9,12
RACE 7: STAN THE MAN (#5)
With Firenze Fire scratching out of this spot, Recruiting Ready is expected to inherit the favorite’s role, also serving as the 132-pound highweight. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he will be vying for the early lead with Strike Power in a situation that is expected to favor the front-runners, and that’s a plausible scenario given that the others just aren’t quick enough to apply pressure early. Recruiting Ready will be tough to beat if he repeats his last race, in which he won by nearly 4 lengths in impressive fashion while earning a 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The issue is that he doesn’t always produce that kind of effort and he’s typically vulnerable when he’s outrun to the early lead. He and Strike Power last faced off in the True North back in June and they both found themselves vulnerable to Catalina Cruiser in the late stages. If a similar scenario plays out here, I think Stan the Man could be the beneficiary as he returns from a layoff. This John Terranova trainee has always been capable of earning the types of speed figures that are necessary to compete at this level, but he hasn’t always put it all together against top company. Some may be concerned about the layoff, but he’s run well fresh in the past and he appears to be working exceptionally well coming into this return. The six furlong distance may seem like just a starting point, but he’s run well going this short in the past and he figures to work out a great trip just off the two aforementioned speeds.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,6
Trifecta: 5 with 4,6 with 3,4,6,9
RACE 8: TUNED (#5)
Sorrentina Lemon may go off as the slight favorite here, as the public often has trouble resisting the allure of an undefeated animal. She did decisively defeat today’s rival Nay Lady Nay when they met at Belmont last time, but she also had some things working in her favor that day. Sorrentina Lemon sat a great trip up close to the pace in a spot where they essentially sprinted home for the last quarter mile. She got the jump on Nay Lady Nay, who actually did quite well to get within a length of her at the finish. Nay Lady Lay returned out of that effort to win the Parx Fall Oaks in visually impressive fashion against a solid field. She appears to be heading in the right direction and I won’t be at all surprised if it turns out that she’s surpassed Sorrentina Lemon during the past couple of months. I’m using both prominently, but my top pick is Tuned, who attempts to win her second consecutive start for Graham Motion. This filly made her U.S. debut at Keeneland last time and put forth an eye-catching effort. She got some pace to close into, but she nevertheless did well to produce such a strong stretch rally after tugging at her rider though the early stages. She quickly put away her rivals once Castellano asked her at the top of the stretch like a filly who can continue to move forward. She had shown some promise in France as a 2-year-old, beating the subsequently Grade 1-placed filly Platane in her debut. There appears to be some pace in here with the likes of Panther Hit, On the Town, and Tass signed on, so she may get a similar setup once again.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,4,6,8
Trifecta: 5 with 3,8 with 3,4,6,8,12