by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 4 - 5
Race 2: 2 - 9 - 8 - 3
Race 3: 5 - 7 - 6
Race 4: 13 - 14 - 6 - 10
Race 5: 4 - 3 - 7 - 2
Race 6: 6 - 8 - 7 - 2
Race 7: 7 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 8: 2 - 8 - 1 - 5
Race 9: 4 - 3 - 7 - 6
RACE 4: DUBROVSKY (#13)
I actually don't mind that this race has come off the turf, because I think there's an interesting contender who was originally entered for grass that may get somewhat ignored in the wagering. Dobrovsky comes in from Parx with a mediocre set of speed figures for a low-profile barn that rarely ships to NYRA. At first glance, he might look less appealing than some of the local horses, but I think he's actually run better than it might appear in a number of his races. It's worth noting that he is coming out of significantly tougher maiden events on the dirt than almost all of his rivals. Maximus Mischief, who won his debut in September, may go off as the favorite in the Remsen, so losing to him by a wide margin is no disgrace. Direct Order, who won his second start, is favored to win an allowance race earlier on this card, and Gates of Dawn, who participated in each of his last two races also has some real quality to him. I thought Dubrovsky put in an improved effort with the addition of blinkers last time, as he rallied from far back to get up for third with a sustained run in a fast race. I see no reason why he shouldn't continue improving with the stretch-out in distance, and he figures to be a square price. I also wonder if his connections entered him in this spot with the idea that it might come off the turf in mind. The fact of the matter is that his dirt competition just isn't particularly formidable. Twelfthofneverland has run faster on one occasion, but I'm not sure that he's more talented than my top pick, and the others were meant for turf.
Win: 13
Exacta Key Box: 13 with 1,6,10,14
RACE 5: DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING (#4)
The one to beat may be Mr. Dougie Fresh, who has consistently faced tougher company in his dirt races. He was simply overmatched in N1X allowance races over the summer, but his last win in March against a similar class level may be good enough to beat this bunch if he were to repeat it. He’s run some of his best races at Aqueduct, and the one-turn one-mile distance of this race is ideal for him. I’m not against him, but I think there are others to consider at a better prices. There is not much early speed in this field, and I think that could make my top pick Doyouknowsomething dangerous. Some may be deterred by his most recent loss, which came at this level in October, but I can make some significant excuses for that performance. He’s never been a horse that has relished a sealed track, though he has handled it on a few occasions. Furthermore, he basically lost all chance at the start when he broke inwardly and couldn’t make the early lead. This time the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be out in a front in a situation favoring the early leader. He had previously run a competitive race for these new connections back in September, and he would be very difficult to catch if he were to get back to that performance. In my opinion, he’s the class of this field. Among those at bigger prices, I want to include Carissimo, who is somewhat intriguing as he switches to dirt given his strong pedigree for this surface. New trainer Ray Handal has strong numbers with this move. I also don’t think Roman Approval is impossible. He wants to go farther than the 6 furlongs he traveled last time, and he may sit a good stalking trip.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,5,7
RACE 8: TIZNOW’S SMILE (#2)
Kathryn the Wise is probably the horse to beat and the likely favorite, but I find her difficult to trust. She was expected to run well off the layoff last time when bet down to 1-2 favoritism and she looked like a shadow of her former self. She has reportedly trained well, so perhaps she gets back into form this time, but she’ll do it without my support. I also respect the form of Nisha, who is the half of the entry that will participate for Jeremiah Engleheart and owner James Riccio. She loves to win races, but I think she has benefitted from favorable circumstances on a number of occasions, and I don’t want to bet this filly at a similarly short price. I think this is the kind of race where you want to look outside the box. Both of Charlton Baker’s horses are pretty interesting to me. Playinwiththeboys is more of a wild card given the layoff, but she certainly possesses the talent to compete with most of the runners in this race if she returns in top form. She ran very well against a tough group in the Critical Eye back in the spring, and I think it’s interesting that she’s entered one level above the lowest allowance condition for which she’s eligible (N1X) in this return. I’m definitely using her, but my top pick is Tiznow’s Smile. The biggest concern for this filly is the pace, since the Pace Projector is predicting she won’t get a favorable setup. That said, she has a strong closing kick when she gets the right trip, as she did three back when she won at 7 furlongs in fast time. She did ride a strong rail bias that day, but I thought she still ran well enough to win this race. She’s lost two races since then, but I think her recent form is somewhat better than it might seem. She got buried inside when she was trying to make a run two back in the Empire Distaff, and I thought she put forth a decent effort last time. While she was only third in a small field, but the two fillies that defeated her are both very talented. I had been of the opinion that Tiznow’s Smile had wanted to go longer, but it’s possible that this turnback may actually benefit her.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,6,8
Trifecta: 2,8 with 2,8 with 1,4,5,6
RACE 9: VICAR’S LEGEND (#4)
This race is particularly tricky, because none of the favorites really excite me. I’ve tried Regalian a couple of times in his recent starts, but I’m starting to tire of his uncompetitive performances. I’ll use him again because he is getting significant class relief in this race, but I have little confidence that he can rebound to his summer form. Candymankando won against a slightly weaker field last time when he benefited form a perfect ride from Irad Ortiz. Joey Martinez is an improving apprentice rider, but I’m skeptical that he can orchestrate a repeat of Irad’s feat. Nolinski may step up off the claim by Gary Gullo, but he’s going to have to do so because I haven’t been thrilled with either of his races since returning from the layoff. I suppose Felix in Fabula is the horse to beat after winning at this level last time. The pace of that race was quite slow for the distance (indicated by blue color-coded pace figures in TimeformUS PPs) and this colt did well to rally for the victory. However, now he’s going to be bet down to a short price off that win, and I’m not convinced that he actually ran much better than that race’s fourth place finisher Vicar’s Legend. This Oscar Barrera-trained longshot is not quite as trustworthy as Felix in Fabula, but he has a right to be competitive with this group based on his last race. He closed more ground than the eventual winner through the lane and was galloping strongly across the wire. I think he stands to improve going 7 furlongs more than many of his rivals, and he actually has efforts from earlier in the spring that give him a big chance. If he’s rounding back into top form now, I think he can get a big piece of this at a substantial price.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,6,7