by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 2: 1 - 2 - 12 - 11
Race 3: 5 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 4: 8 - 7 - 3 - 2
Race 5: 3 - 5 - 2 - 7
Race 6: 5 - 10 - 3 - 4
Race 7: 6 - 1 - 9 - 7
Race 8: 5 - 3 - 4 - 1A
Race 9: 7 - 5 - 8 - 9
RACE 2: GOOD OLD BOY (#1)
A few horses are exiting the October maiden race won by No Mo Promises, including the likely favorite, Throw the Deuce. While he did run fairly well to be second that day, he also got a great trip, saving ground early before running on late in a race that was falling apart at the end. If I'm going to take horses coming out of that race, I want the ones who were involved in the fast pace. Therefore, my top pick is Good Old Boy. This gelding ran a much better race than his finishing position would suggest. Breaking from the far-outside post position, he rushed up to contest the pace and issued a real challenge to the leader in the stretch, even poking his head in front at one point. He got tired in the final eighth of a mile, but he deserves credit for running such an aggressive race. He figures to have gotten needed fitness from that performance, and he could play out as the controlling speed from his inside post this time.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,7,11,12,14
RACE 3: FOOCH (#5)
Switzerland and Tommy T are likely to go off as the two favorites once again, but I'm starting to get a little tired of this pair. They keep running well and deserve to be used, but they've both had their fair share of chances at short prices. Therefore, I want to look in a different direction for my top pick. The horse who interests me most is Fooch, who returns from a lengthy layoff for trainer Wesley Ward. I know that he looks too slow to compete against this group at first glance. However, his debut effort was actually much stronger than it appears. The five horses who ran back out of that race improved their TimeformUS Speed Figures by an average of 36 points in their next starts and their Beyer Speed Figures by an average of 24 points. Most notably, runner-up Copper Town blossomed into one of the fastest 3-year-olds in the country in his two subsequent starts. Furthermore, Ward has strong numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 21 for 50 (42 percent, $2.53 ROI) with maidens returning from layoffs of 180 days or longer in sprints.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4,6
Trifecta: 5 with 1,4,6 with 1,3,4,6
RACE 5: COOL AS YOU LIKE (#3)
If Might Be runs back to her effort in the Empire Distaff two back, she is going to win this race. That day, she chased a fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in the PPs) and was very game to hold on for second behind the talented filly Verdant Pastures. While she ran a respectable speed figure in her subsequent start, she was the 3-5 favorite for a reason. While this may not look like a much tougher spot than that one at first glance, I think this race presents some added challenges. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace in this race, which is primarily due to the presence of Frost Wise, who is posted just to Might Be's outside. Frost Wise is primarily a sprinter, and one that typically needs the lead. She could really hinder Might Be's chances in this race, which may open things up for a closer to take advantage of the situation. I'm hoping that's the case because I think Cool as You Like is a mildly interesting alternative to the favorite. If you ignore the turf experiment two back, this filly's last two dirt starts are not as bad as they seem. In that August 9 race at Saratoga, she got a bizarre ride, as Joel Rosario allowed her to drop too far off a very slow pace, and only asked her for her best when it was too late. Then last time, she was hindered by an inside speed bias in a race where no one closed from off the pace. I don't mind her going a one-turn mile, and I think the pace scenario in this race will suit her.
Win/Place: 3
Trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5 with 1,2,6,7
RACE 6: CAPO DEI CAPI (#5)
The horse to beat is clearly Witch Doctor, who faces a much easier field after getting trounced by the talented Analyze It last time out. He didn't run particularly well that day, but his prior effort would make him awfully formidable against this group. I'll definitely use him, but I think there are others in here who figure to offer better value. The horse I'm most interested in betting is Capo Dei Capi. I know that he showed absolutely nothing in his debut, but I really don't think this colt is a dirt horse. Even though he's sired by Bernardini, his female family is full of turf influences, and he is a half-brother to three stakes winners on grass. Furthermore, when this colt worked a furlong in 10 3/5 seconds at the 2-year-old sale this year, he gave the impression of a horse who would appreciate running long on turf. Bill Mott knows how to get horses to turn things around with a surface switch and has won with some big prices in this situation.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,7,10
RACE 8: CAROLINA SHAG (#5)
Truth in the Lies is likely to go off as the favorite here, given her trainer's incredibly strong record with turf sprinters. While this mare has done the majority of her running in longer races on turf, she was mildly successful racing in sprints earlier in her career. Jason Servis is an expert at determining which of his horses can handle turnbacks in distance like this, so I'm inclined to take her seriously. That said, I thinks she faces a serious rival in Carolina Shag, who will go off at a much more attractive price. Caroling Shag ran reasonably well last time but just happened to meet a much tougher field than the one she faces today. First of Spring is a talented horse for Chad Brown, and runner-up Fire Key returned to destroy a good field when stepped up against stakes company last weekend. Prior to that, Carolina Shag's form looks a bit disappointing, but she had some serious excuses in a few of those starts. She got a terrible trip two back at Keeneland and was wide against a strong rail bias in a her prior turf start at Saratoga. This filly has always had some ability, and I think she can show it against this group.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4
Trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5 with 1,4,6,7