by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   6 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 2:   1 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 3:   4 - 7 - 3 - 2
Race 4:   5 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 5:   11 - 1 - 2 - 12
Race 6:   8 - 2 - 9 - 6
Race 7:   4 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 8:   2 - 9 - 5 - 6
Race 9:   8 - 6 - 1 - 5

PLAYS

 
RACE 3: CONFORTO (#4)
It’s difficult to know how the public will approach this race, since there are many contenders and few standouts among them. I suppose a horse like Variant Perception could go favored, despite the claim away from Chad Brown, since he had run some speed figures that would him formidable against this group going back to the spring. However, he disappointed at this level last time and has generally been the beneficiary of some favorable trips when he’s done well. This time, he might not get the pace ahead of him that he needs, since the Pace Projector is predicting a “No Speed” situation. That scenario could benefit Inscom, who possesses the tactical speed to lead this field early. He ran well enough at Belmont in his last two starts, and his speed gives him a tactical edge that makes him dangerous, but others are more intriguing. Croque Monsieur seems to have found the right class level and comes off an impressive win at the Meadowlands, though his closing style may not work in this race. I’ve landed on Conforto as my top selection. He’s going to be a bit of a price in this spot and I think he can work out a decent trip. He displayed that he’s good enough to win at this level two back when he lost a nose decision going a mile at Belmont. Some may hold his poor effort last time against him, but he never really had a chance that day when caught behind a dawdling early pace. He’s clearly better than that and I think he’s a major threat if he can get back on track.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,5,7,11
 

RACE 4: SOMETHINGTOTELLYOU (#5)
The two runners with the best dirt form are First Deputy and Tapizearance. The former began his career on turf, but made a successful transition to the main track last time, launching a middle move to take the lead past midstretch before getting run down late. The winner of that race, Captain Bombastic, returned to win the Sleepy Hollow with a 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure, so this colt figures to attract support off that company line. However, he has to get a little bit faster to put himself on common ground with Tapizearance, who has already earned speed figures strong enough to win at this level and has handled the distance. I’m using both prominently, but I think there are some more lightly raced contenders to consider. The one that intrigues me most is Somethingtotellyou. This Todd Pletcher trainee didn’t attract much support when he made his debut going 6 1/2 furlongs last month. He was hard-ridden early, showing brief speed before steadily backing up through the pack. However, he didn’t just give up after dropping back to 7th at the quarter pole. This colt actually stayed on fairly well through the final two furlongs and was running on with energy across the wire. He looked to me like one that is just crying out for more distance. His sire Honor Code was best over route trips and his dam Dean Henry was a stakes winner going 1 1/8 miles on the dirt, so he’s supposed to relish added ground. Todd Pletcher does fairly well with this move and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one take a big step forward second time out.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,6,7
Trifecta: 5 with 3,4 with ALL
 

RACE 6: BEALE STREET (#8)
I don’t have a major problem with Fancy That, the likely favorite. While this filly has yet to actually win a race on turf, she’s been beaten by a pair of superior rivals in her last two starts. Furthermore, she never had the chance to reel in Pivotal Connection last time once that filly got loose on the front end through slow early fractions. The only major hurdle for Fancy That this time is the distance, since she’s stretching out around the three turns for the first time. Yet she hasn’t shown major stamina limitations in her prior starts and many of the alternatives are in the same boat with regard to the stretch-out. I respect her, but I’m looking elsewhere for value. I’m done with Quiet Dignity, who always seems to take money for Chad Brown and keeps disappointing. Her presence just figures to inflate the prices of the other alternatives. Michael Matz ships in a pair of fillies that seem to fit this spot fairly well. Monhegan comes off a maiden victory at Colonial Downs where she beat a relatively weak field. However, she had previously run well against some tougher maiden groups and has already proven that she can handle the 11 furlongs. I’m using her, but my top pick is Matz’s other runner Beale Street. She’s stretching out to this marathon trip for the first time, but she strikes me as one who will love it. She’s been closing belatedly in her recent races going shorter distances, most notably last time when she made an eye-catching late rush from a hopeless position to get up for second at Laurel. This 3-year-old seems to be improving with every start, and she hinted that she might have this kind of ability all the way back in February when she was third behind the subsequently stakes-placed Dyna Passer. As long as the turf course is still playing fairly to all running styles following last week’s rain, she should be tough to hold off.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,6,9,11
 

RACE 8: ZIP DRIVE (#2)
Likely favorite Saratoga Treasure had no trouble transitioning out of NY-bred company last time, as she maintained her improved form, arguably running the best race of her career despite finishing third. Some of her rivals in this spot have more upside, but you know what you’re going to get from this reliable 4-year-old filly, who has put forth nothing but solid efforts since the trainer switch to David Donk at the start of the year. She isn’t meeting the toughest field for this level and just seems like the horse to beat. One alternative who may attract some support is O’Malley, who seeks her third consecutive victory while moving up the class ladder. This 3-year-old was a winner off the claim for Servis, and now steps up again to meet N1X foes while turning back to the shortest distance she’s tried since her career debut. Servis is 6 for 17 (35%, $2.19 ROI) with last-out winners second off the claim on turf over 5 years, so these types can come right back to get it done. However, she’d need to significantly improve her speed figures, and may be slightly overbet due to the connections. I’m most interested in Zip Drive, who turns back to a sprint distance in this spot. She won her only prior turf sprint attempt at Colonial over the summer, albeit against weaker, and that was coming off a significant layoff, so she has a right to do better now. She showed good progression when moved up against winners last time, fading to fourth only after chasing a fast pace while earning a field-best 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The winner of that event seems like a promising sort and this filly was just two necks out of second place. She was headstrong while chasing a run-off leader that day, but she showed the ability to rate kindly in her prior sprint start.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,6,9,10
Trifecta: 2 with 5,9 with 3,5,6,9,10,12