by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 16 - 14 - 15 - 8
Race 2: 5 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 4: 2B - 3X - 9 - 1A
Race 5: 6 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 6: 2 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 7: 2 - 9 - 6 - 1/1A
Race 8: 3 - 9 - 6 - 10
Race 9: 6 - 10 - 5 - 2
RACE 5: JAZZY J (#6)
This is one of the most confusing races on the card since few of the top contenders have gone this distance. I suppose South of France and Honey I’m Good will vie for favoritism, as both exit blowout wins against maiden-claiming foes. South of France did so at Keeneland and earned the highest speed figure in this field. However, she’s never raced beyond six furlongs and isn’t exactly bred to relish added ground. Honey I’m Good appeals to me a bit more because she’s less exposed, but I have even greater distance concerns about her. Movie Score didn’t run quite as fast as those two in her debut victory at Parx, but she was visually impressive and has one of the most convincing pedigrees for the stretchout. Scott Lake rarely ships to NYRA these days, and it concerns me that this Mike Repole-owned filly was apparently a Pletcher reject back in August. One of the significant features of this race is the overabundance of early speed. Unsurprisingly, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. That could work against horses like Honey I’m Good and Malibu Mischief, who is fast but looks like a pure sprinter. I’m hoping that one filly who benefits from the expected pace scenario is Jazzy J. I know that she’s slower than her main rivals, but that disadvantage could be mitigated by her running style. While it’s true that she wasn’t beating much in that maiden win on Aug. 22, I liked the way that she did it, as she finished powerfully after coming from well back. Since then, her connections have been too ambitious, misguidedly running her in stakes races on the turf. She’s finally back in a realistic spot for the first time since she won at Saratoga, and I think she’s going to show some improvement. Eric Cancel, who rode her in that lone win, is back aboard here, and he seems to have developed a knack for getting longshots to run in these situations.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3,4
Trifecta: 4,6 with 4,6 with 1,2,3
RACE 6: DR. BASKIN (#2)
There’s no clear horse to beat in this wide-open New York-bred allowance affair. One thing I do know is that I’m against one of the major contenders, Alien Season. This horse is moving back into the statebred ranks for the first time since his career debut, but this is arguably a step up in class for a horse who has done the majority of his work against very cheap foes. Sparky seems like a perfectly logical contender. He’s been stuck at this level for a while, but this may be the easiest field of winners that he’s faced. You could make similar points about Nutzforboltz, who has faced tougher company on a number of occasions at this level. He should also appreciate the turnback to a sprint distance after failing to stretch out last time. The main concern with both of these horses, especially Nutzforboltz, is their apparent lack of desire to win. I want a new face, so I’m taking a shot with Dr. Baskin. Like Alien Season, he’s back to face New York-bred competition for the first time in more than a year. Little has gone right in the interim, as issues have kept him off the track. However, I thought his last race was a big step in the right direction, as he raced competitively against a solid group of open claimers that is of comparable quality to this group. It is worth noting that the posted fractions and final time of that Oct. 24 race are wildly inaccurate and need to be corrected. The actual final time was around 1:07.5, which was used to create the TimeformUS Speed Figure. Regardless of timing issues, I thought he ran well within the context of that race, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Manny Franco get more aggressive with him this time as he adds blinkers.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,7,9
Trifecta: 2 with 1,7 with 1,5,7,9
RACE 7: SINGAPORE TRADER (#2)
Trustworthy will probably win this race if he repeats his most recent performance on Oct. 12. This horse has steadily improved since the claim by Steve Asmussen, and his last effort was his best yet. However, that runner-up finish at this level was aided by a slow pace that favored the front-runners, and this race is predicted to feature a much faster early tempo. I’m using him, but I think he could be somewhat vulnerable at a short price. That said, I still think he’s a more likely winner than the Robertino Diodoro entry. Single Mission is the one who will attract more support, but he benefited from finding himself in a relatively weak off-the-turf race last time. Todd Pletcher has two intriguing contenders in this spot. The one who may attract more support is D’ambrosio, who beat vastly inferior competition to win his maiden at Keeneland last time. He avoided getting claimed and now returns in a protected spot. Pletcher actually has fantastic statistics in this situation, second off a layoff in dirt routes with last-out maiden winners (16 for 41, $2.43 ROI). I’m using him, but I actually prefer Singapore Trader. This horse really took to the switch back to dirt at Saratoga in August, as he easily won his maiden and came right back to run a competitive race in the Albany. The horses who narrowly beat him in that spot, Sea Foam and Evaluator, would both be pretty formidable in a spot like this. Singapore Trader disappointed behind Trustworthy last time, but I think he deserves a pass for that race. The early pace was very slow, and he was put in an awkward position right from the start. Velazquez couldn’t ride him properly around the turn and just let him back out of a difficult position. He obviously couldn’t get back involved after that, and I think he deserves another chance, especially stretching out to a mile.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,6,9
Trifecta: 2 with 1,9 with 1,5,6,9