PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 2 - 7 - 3
Race 2:   6 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 3:   3 - 1A - 4 - 6
Race 4:   7 - 5 - 9 - 3
Race 5:   6 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 6:   8 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 7:   3 - 8 - 5 - 7
Race 8:   4 - 8 - 2 - 7
Race 9:   2 - 8 - 12 - 6

TOP PLAYS

RACE 4: VALIANT MAN (#7)
There are limited options among those with prior turf experience, making Summer Mischief the clear favorite. That said, this horse is starting to run out of chances. He probably could have done a bit better two back when he was rank early, but last time I thought he had little excuse not to run by the eventual winner in the lane. He's the horse to beat, but I want to take a shot against him with first-time turfer Valiant Man. This horse actually ran pretty well in his only two starts at Aqueduct last winter, finishing a fast-closing second in his debut before being pace-compromised behind the talented Long Haul Bay in his second start. While he doesn't have an overwhelming turf pedigree, his only sibling is a turf winner, and Proud Citizen is actually a fairly productive turf sire. David Donk does reasonably well with horses coming off extended layoffs.

Win: 7
Exacta Box: 5,7

RACE 5: SHORT KAKES (#6)
One of the primary features of this race is the lack of pace. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners racing on or near the early lead. Jump for Joy has some speed, but I think Short Kakes, who breaks from the far outside post position, is perfectly situated to take advantage of the situation. This filly ran a bit better than it appears last time, getting engaged in a three-horse duel before putting away her two pace rivals. She was clear until deep stretch, when she was just run down by two runners, including today's rival Honor Way. I think this stretch-out to seven furlongs plays into her hands, since the pace figures to be more moderate, and she already owns a win at this distance.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,5

RACE 6: SHAMCAT (#8)
A bunch of horses are exiting the fifth race on Oct. 7, which was won by Krampus. Obviously, Patriot Drive did the best of the also-rans, losing by just a head while finishing over four lengths clear of the rest of the field. It was a strong performance, but I think it was aided by a very slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs) and a hard turf course that was favoring speedier types. Therefore, I prefer others out of that race. King of Spades did well to nearly get up for third despite rallying from last into the slow pace. My only reservation with him is the turnback to a mile, since he may want to go slightly farther than this. I’m instead taking a shot with a horse that figures to be a pretty big price. Shamcat had no major excuse last time, but I thought he ran reasonably well to be fourth despite getting taken too far off the pace in the early going. He’s really more of a one- mile specialist, so I like that he’s now getting back to his favorite distance. Furthermore, Gregory DiPrima has fantastic numbers second off the claim. Over the past five years, he is 10 for 44 (23 percent, $4.60 ROI) in such situations. I'll use him with the aforementioned pair, as well as the very logical contender Astounding, who returns from a brief layoff.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,6,7

RACE 8: FLORA DORA (#4)
Jamyson 'n Ginger is likely to go off as the favorite here, but I'm starting to doubt her overall quality. Aside from that one monstrous speed figure over a wet track when she broke her maiden, she just hasn't run particularly fast races, and doesn't seem to have improved much as a 3-year-old. She can win, but I'm against her at a short price. The horse to beat is probably Parade, who lost to the favorite last time, but has since continued to improve. She would be aided by an honest pace in this spot. I'll use her, but at a larger price, I want to take a shot with Flora Dora. This 4-year-old filly ran deceptively well in the Bed O Roses last time, closing into a slow pace and actually making decent headway against a tougher field. She’s at her best going longer distances, so the one-turn mile might be a little short for her. That said, she's run competitive speed figures, and her only 2017 effort at least indicates that she has the potential to develop into a better horse than she was last year. The low-profile connections will ensure a decent price.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,7,8
Trifecta: 4 with 2,8 with 1,2,7,8