PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 8 - 2 - 5
Race 2:   6 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 3:   6 - 3 - 4 - 1A
Race 4:   9 - 8 - 7 - 10
Race 5:   2 - 1A - 8 - 9
Race 6:   4 - 3 - 10 - 8
Race 7:   9 - 10 - 7 - 3
Race 8:   2 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 9:   7 - 10 - 11 - 5

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 1

Coach Sessa (#5) could go favored here as she returns to New York-bred company. She earned a solid speed figure on debut when finishing behind subsequent stakes winner Brocknardini. However, I felt that she was just picking up pieces that day, never truly a threat to the winner in a race where others had trouble. She was dull as the favorite last time, and I think she’s vulnerable here at a short price. I’m a little more interested in Red Burgundy (#2). She’s stretching out from a pair of sprints, but she’s certainly bred to handle added ground as a half-sister to turf route winner Collaboration. Horacio De Paz has good stats with stretch-outs and she’s drawn well inside with speed. My top pick Pretty Up (#4) has a similar profile, though she figures to attract less support, having finished off the board in both prior starts. She didn’t seem to want any part of dirt on debut, backing up after a quarter mile. She did show more affinity for grass last time, but ran like a horse who might benefit from more distance. She was a little keen early and encountered some traffic in the middle of the race before getting clear in the stretch. She didn’t produce much of a kick, but was striding out well across the wire and galloped out well past it. I think we’re going to see a better effort from her this time. Another horse who should appreciate stretching out is Saratoga Smokeshow (#8). I’m not as confident that she has the ability to compete at this level, but she looks like a horse that wanted no part of 5 1/2 furlongs on debut. She’s by Belmont Stakes runner-up Destin from a stamina-oriented female family. Her best sibling is the plodding dirt router Jackson Heights. She didn’t show much on debut, but this is a better spot for her, and she’s going to be a generous price.

Fair Value:
#4 PRETTY UP, at 8-1 or greater
#8 SARATOGA SMOKESHOW, at 15-1 or greater

RACE 3

David Jacobson will only send out the weaker half of his entry, Business Model (#1A). This runner's lack of early speed could be an issue in this 6-furlong contest that lacks much pace. Bold Journey (#3) is now likely to inherit favoritism. He rebounded from a poor effort at this level two back with a much better performance last time. He got a decent pace setup and came with his usual late run. He did have to alter course slightly in the stretch, but it certainly didn’t cost him the race. Unfortunately, he’s another who lacks early speed in a race that doesn’t feature much pace. I wish I could make more of a case for King Angelo (#4), who has competitive prior form. It just feels like he’s gone the wrong way recently, and I’m most concerned that he appears to have lost the early speed he once possessed. My top pick is He’smyhoneybadger (#6). This horse was in good form for Joe Sharp earlier this year, but ran poorly in his first start off the claim for Tom Amoss at Ellis Park in June. He rebounded at Saratoga, winning at this level going 7 furlongs on Aug. 13 He was pretty game to get the job done that day, turning back multiple challenges to get his nose on the line first. He was claimed out of that race by Rob Atras and moved up to a tougher level last time. Dismissed at 17-1, he couldn’t quite keep up with pace early and dropped back around the far turn. He was also racing along the rail in a race that featured a distinct outside flow, which may have worked against him. All things considered, he battled on determinedly to finish less than a length away from second place. It was encouraging that he held his form for the new barn, and I expect better now that he’s dropping slightly. He’s also drawn well outside in a race that doesn’t feature much pace, giving a savvy rider like Kendrick Carmouche plenty of options.

Fair Value:
#6 HE'SMYHONEYBADGER, at 3-2 or greater

RACE 4

You Only Live Once (#7) feels like a deserving favorite in this spot, after having shown real ability on debut. She she broke last of 12, spotting the field a couple of lengths, but quickly recovered to advance into mid-pack by the time they reached the far turn. She then moved out in the stretch and produced another kick to close for third before galloping out strongly, passing even the winner after the wire. That was a 6-furlong race, but she’s bred to go longer. Todd Pletcher doesn’t have great stats stretching out second time starters in this situation, but most of those debuted on dirt. She’s logical, but I thought others would offer better value. Madaket’s Arrow (#8) exits the same race. That was her first start since switching to George Weaver, but I think she proved that sprinting just isn't for her. Prior to that, she actually ran reasonably well in a pair of turf routes at Monmouth this summer for the Todd Pletcher barn. She chased a fast pace that came apart three back when finishing behind the promising Startup Mentality, and then found herself in a similar scenario on Aug. 11. She should appreciate the stretch-out and figures to be a generous price. My top pick is Le Beau (#9). This filly ran pretty well in both starts down in Florida last winter. She caught a well-meant Chad Brown rival on debut, and then just missed when switched over to turf in her second start. That race’s winner, Violet Gibson, finished third in a stakes next time out. She was off for some time after that, and returned at Kentucky Downs last month, where she got bet down to favoritism. Yet she broke poorly and had to make up about 3 lengths in the opening furlong to secure the lead. That early exertion took its toll late as she faded badly in the last quarter. She’s better than that last race indicates, and should be capable of better here in her second start off the layoff.

Fair Value:
#9 LE BEAU, at 9-2 or greater
#8 MADAKET'S ARROW, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 7

Likely favorite Rheaume (#10) is just getting logical class relief as she drops in for a tag for the first time. The current connections bought her at auction earlier this year for just $25k, so it’s not some major negative that she’s being risked for a tag at this stage of her career, late in her 5-year-old season. Her recent form really hasn’t been that bad. She’s just not quite good enough to win at the state-bred N1X level these days. She’s going to be a handful here, but she’s also pretty obvious and will be a short price with a rider who has been snakebitten lately. Her main rival on paper is Saratoga Chrome (#7), who actually comes in with the highest last-out TimeformUS Speed Figure of 105. Yet that number is very much a product of the nature of turf racing. She was never really competitive with a much tougher field in the John Hettinger, but nevertheless got carried along to a career-best number in a race that went slowly early and turned into a sprint late. She previously hadn’t been as effective as Rheaume at the state-bred allowance. In searching for the best value, I want to go in a different direction. Anileate (#9) figures to get somewhat ignored here for a barn that doesn’t typically take much money. Yet her turf route form has generally been pretty good since the claim. She put in a strong effort to be second at the starter allowance level in June, albeit with a good trip in a race dominated forwardly. I’m willing to forgive her for a fourth-place finish when dropped in for a tag in July, as she was compromised by a slow pace. She then got back on turf last time and actually stayed on gamely against a competitive field of starter allowance rivals. I don’t mind the switch to Ruben Silvera, who has ridden well on this circuit.

Fair Value:
#9 ANILEATE, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 9

It’s hard to know how this race will get bet, since there really isn’t that much reliable turf form. Scherzando (#5) has probably run the best races on this surface, but he’s a little hard to endorse as a win candidate, given his 0 for 19 career record. The good news is that only 6 of those losses have come on turf, though he had his chance to win at this level last time and settle for second. Okaloosa (#10) finished behind him that day, but might be worth another chance on turf. He has plenty of pedigree for this surface on his dam’s side, and he showed ability on debut when finishing second against maiden claiming foes. He wasn’t on the best part of the Mellon turf course last time, when always chasing inside during a time at the end of the meet when outside paths appeared to be preferred. I think he can run better here, but I also won’t be surprised when he’s the favorite. Egyptian Quest (#10) is another with upside as he makes his second career start and first against New York-breds. He met a decent field of comparable quality at Monmouth last time and was running on well at the end. I do wonder if he may ultimately want even more ground than this, but he does have a right to step forward. My top pick is Scaramanga (#7). He’s obviously been a disappointment, failing to build on a decent debut against open company in Florida last year. He was mildly interesting getting on turf last time, since he does have plenty of pedigree for this surface. Munnings is a decent influence, and his dam earned all 7 of her career victories on turf. However, perhaps he just didn’t want to go 1 1/16 miles, especially coming off a lengthy layoff. He broke from the far outside post and got a bit keen in the early stages of that race before fading. I still think he’s capable of better on grass, and now is the time he’s supposed to show it, turning back with a race under his belt.

Fair Value:
#7 SCARAMANGA, at 7-1 or greater