PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 2:   1 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 3:   1 - 8 - 6 - 2
Race 4:   12 - 10 - 9 - 6
Race 5:   1 - 2 - 4 - 10
Race 6:   1 - 6 - 11 - 10
Race 7:   3 - 8 - 5 - 1
Race 8:   10 - 5 - 7 - 2
Race 9:   9 - 4 - 1 - 7

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 1

I don’t have much interest in the likely favorites in this 9-furlong maiden event. I suppose Vanished (#3) will take money going out for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, in a race where she does project to be the main speed. However, I don’t trust this filly’s form, as it appeared she was tailing off on the turf through her recent starts. She did narrowly lose her only dirt start, but she got a favorable trip that day at Ellis and I’m not convinced she’s truly a dirt horse. Paris Style (#6) stands on firmer ground, but there’s nothing exciting about her. She’s run to a similar level in each of her last three starts, and it’s unclear if stretching back out to 9 furlongs really helps her cause. If someone is to take a step forward in this spot, it’s more likely to be one of the lightly raced options. I wanted to make a stronger case for Miss Our Hero (#2), who did get pretty rank in her debut on dirt. She threw in the towel that day, but had a right to get tired going that demanding one-mile distance. I just wish she had done more running on turf last time, since she does have pedigree for that surface. The jury is still out regarding her overall ability. Dreaming of Mo (#1) figures to run better in this spot after getting an education in her turf sprint debut. She has much more of a route pedigree, and she was chilly on the board in that unveiling. She trains like a horse that is going to appreciate going longer on the dirt, though this is a significant stretch-out. I think she could run well here, but would demand a fair price. My top pick is Rayya Valentine (#5), who could be longest price in the field. She finished behind the aforementioned Paris Style in her prior start, but I think she has more upside than that foe. She missed the break and stumbled on debut, so I can forgive that performance, and I was encouraged to see her show improved early speed last time, and Chad Summers’s horses have been running well lately. I suspect Romero Maragh will plan to send her to the lead, and I think she could gallop this field into submission. She acts like a filly who will run all day and is bred along those lines, out of a UAE Oaks winner who is a half-sister to 12-furlong Cougar II winner Curlin Road.

Fair Value:
#5 RAYYA VALENTINE, 6-1 or greater
#1 DREAMING OF MO, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 8

Danse Macabre (#2) is the filly to beat in this intriguing edition of the Glen Cove. She’s run well in each of her 8 career start, and possesses good versatility, though she clearly is best as a turf sprinter. She was pretty impressive winning the Mamzelle earlier this season with a career-best 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, she missed some time after that, and was beaten as the favorite last time at Kentucky Downs. Yet she still ran her race in that Music City, just unable to reel in a legitimate rival. I don’t mind her going 6 furlongs at all, and she’s run well on this circuit in the past. Christophe Clement sends out a pair of contenders, but I have some issues with both. Dontlookbackatall (#9) will take money off a perfect trip victory last time, when she got to control a paceless affair. Love Appeals (#8) arguably has a higher ceiling, but she’s going to attract Irad Ortiz support despite the fact that she was a bit dull in the Galway when last seen. I’m more interested in a pair from the Mark Casse stable. Personal Pursuit (#7) is a little more obvious, as she ran her career-best race when turned back to 6 furlongs on turf last time out. She was facing a much weaker field than this, but displayed an explosive turn of foot when asked in the stretch. She never got to show her true ability in her only prior turf sprint in last year’s Matron, where she got badly hampered at the start. She makes sense, but I also like this spot for Casse’s other filly. Ticker Tape Home (#10) is another who looks like she could benefit from a turnback on turf. She had run very well in both turf sprints at Woodbine as a 2-year-old, including her 10-length maiden win, which earned a competitive 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Yet she’s only raced on grass once since then, and it was going a route in the Florida Oaks, where she got an impossible wide trip from post 12. She’s recently gotten back on track going shorter on synthetic, and I like her returning to turf in this spot. Another horse I don’t want to underestimate is Future Is Now (#5). This filly matched Danse Macabre’s best number when earning a 113 TimeformUS Figure for that allowance victory at Pimlico. She has to stretch her speed to 6 furlongs here, but she figures to be in front early and obviously has some talent. Mike Trombetta knows how to win these races, and she could be a fair price.

Fair Value:
#10 TICKER TAPE HOME, at 7-1 or greater
#5 FUTURE IS NOW, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 9

Francesco Clemente (#4) figures to attract plenty of support as he drops in class for his second North American start. Coming off a layoff, he made his first start for the Chad Brown barn at the optional claiming N2X level last time, and ran on decently in the late stages after getting away to a tardy start. He might have needed that race against tougher company, and now his connections take advantage of his eligibility for this softer N1X condition. Even though he has won 3 races in his lifetime, they had purses low enough that they don’t mine that $18,000 threshold that counts as a win towards allowance conditions in New York. The big question for him is the added distance, which shouldn’t be a problem given that he won going as far as 1 1/4 miles in Europe. However, it is interesting that Chad Brown adds blinkers for the stretch-out. Over the past 5 years, Brown is just 4 for 35 (11%, $0.60 ROI) with blinker additions for 4-year-old and older horse on turf. One alternative to consider is Cyber Ninja (#1), who takes another shot at this level after closing mildly for second in a similar spot last time. He got a pretty good trip and was running on steadily at the end, but his kick was no match for the late rush of winner Catch That Party. I do think this lightly raced 3-year-old still has potential for improvement, and he seems to have found his niche as a turf marathoner. He drew well and merits some consideration. My top pick is another lightly raced runner. Swore (#9) was off the track for a year and a half coming into his 4-year-old season, but he’s quickly making up for lost time. He should have graduated from the maiden ranks two back at Saratoga when he was making a winning move in deep stretch before getting knocked off stride by Smart Uncle in the final sixteenth. Horses exiting that race have since flattered the form, as winner Faraday came back to beat a tougher group at Kentucky Downs with a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and fourth-place Toofareastiswest also returned to win his next start with a 109. Swore subsequently went to Kentucky Downs as the heavy favorite against an overmatched field of maidens and he was always in command of that race, drawing clear impressively. He obviously relishes this distance, and he still has upside as he steps up against winners for the first time.

Fair Value:
#9 SWORE, at 5-2 or greater