by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   2 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 2:   1 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 3:   5 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 4:   1 - 4 - 8 - 3
Race 5:   10 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 6:   9 - 3 - 10 - 8
Race 7:   6 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 8:   2 - 4 - 1 - 7
Race 9:   1 - 3 - 11 - 10

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

 
RACE 1: OUR SON JAKE (#2)

Though he’s only made 6 starts in his career, you already get the sense that Ocean’s Reserve (#5) is on his way to professional maiden status. He clearly hung in the late stages after seemingly making a winning move back on June 9, allowing the winner to come back and beat him. He then proceeded to do the exact same thing in three more starts, all at short prices. His loss last time is particularly concerning, as he had dead aim on a longshot first time starter after his main rival blew the start, but just refused to go by for the entire stretch drive. His speed figures obviously make him the horse to beat, but it’s awfully hard to endorse him at another short price. Some looking for alternatives may go to the first time starters, but neither one did quite enough for me. I’m instead most interested in Our Son Jake (#2) as the potential upsetter. This colt was steadily improving on dirt leading up to that turf experiment back in July. Obviously grass just isn’t his surface, and he’s getting back on his preferred footing here. Notably, he was contesting a pace that fell apart two back. One of the horses he dueled with, 4th-place finisher Two for Charging, came back to win next time out with an 11-point speed figure improvement, beating Ocean’s Reserve in the process. The layoff is a bit of a concern, especially considering that he has to improve again on even his best performance to graduate here. Some may also be concerned that the Mike Miceli barn has been pretty cold recently, going 1 for 37 (3%, $0.78 ROI) over the past 5 months. However, Miceli did have a couple of frustrating beats in September and interestingly this is the first horse that he’s entered after a 3-week gap with no starters.

WIN: #2 Our Son Jake, at 7-2 or greater
 

RACE 4: STJAMES (#1)

The likely favorites in this maiden claimer don’t do much for me. Charleston Strong (#3) could take money as he returns from a layoff for Mike Maker. He ran fine in some turf sprints last year, but was facing some weaker competition at Gulfstream over the winter. Maker has poor statistics off layoffs of this type, and I’m not sure this horse is still capable of the career-best form he produced in June 2021. Upper Level (#8) is another to consider as he drops in for a tag for the first time on turf after twice trying the maiden special weight level at Saratoga. He has plenty of early speed, but lacked the stamina to finish in both of those turf efforts, and I’m not convinced that he isn’t more effective on dirt. Jurkovec (#4)looks a little more appealing as he drops back down to this $40k maiden claiming level after trying a tougher maiden special weight field last time. He ran well at this level two back and seems like one who should appreciate this 6-furlong distance. My top pick is Stjames (#1). I’ve been hoping that this horse would get the chance to cut back in distance or get some class relief, and here he gets to do both. He’s just been a little overmatched at the maiden special weight level, and I never understood why his connections tried to stretch him out to marathon distances. He actually ran quite well in his career debut at this distance last year, closing quickly after a poor start. He figures to be a decent price for connections that don’t take much money, and he fits nicely here based on form.

WIN: #1 Stjames, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 4
 

RACE 5: DAZZY (#10)

The main difficulty with assessing this $25k claimer is deciding how to handle the likely favorite Monshun (#2). She’s a standout based on form, having earned speed figures that could be good enough to win here in 5 of her 6 career starts. She’s also coming off a victory over this track at a higher claiming level. However, now she’s dropping off that victory and getting back on a fast track. Both of her victories have been achieved over wet surfaces, and she’s also controlled the pace on the front end in each of those triumphs. It’s unclear if she can make the lead here with fellow pace rivals like Trade Secret (#4) and Closing Deals (#6) in the race. The latter seems like the bigger danger since she appeared to get back into form with a victory at Finger Lakes last time. While form from that track can be tough to trust, both horses who finished directly behind her came back to win, and the third-place finisher did so with an improved speed figure. However, I’m leaning in a different direction for my top pick. Dazzy (#10) may simply not be good enough to upset the favorites, as she is a little light in the speed figure department and she hasn’t been competitive in her last several races. However, I do like the turnback in distance for her after she just found two-turn trips at Monmouth to be more than she could handle in her last two races. She was also facing better fields on each of those occasions and now gets needed class relief. She ran well on this circuit sprinting in her career debut, and perhaps she can wake up getting back to what worked before. She’s trained forwardly for this turnback in distance and will be a fair price.

WIN: #10 Dazzy, at 9-1 or greater
 

RACE 6: MASTEROF THE TUNES (#9)

I’m not sure how the betting public is going to approach this seemingly wide open New York-bed optional claimer. If they do go for morning line favorite Classic Lady (#2), I want no part of that runner. She is getting class relief here, but she was terrible last time, lacking any acceleration after working out a perfect trip. Something appears to have gone wrong with this once classy mare, and the drop in for $45k seems like a bad sign. Among the potential short prices, I’d rather go for the upside of horses like Whatlovelookslike (#3) or She’s a Mia (#10). The former has obviously drawn a much better post position. This Todd Pletcher trainee hasn’t run particularly fast in her recent races, but she always shows up with an honest effort and has a way of making her own good trips. She’s a Mia was visually impressive in victory just 12 days ago, but she got a much better trip than her stablemate New Ginya, who got rolling too late after getting buried in traffic. They’re both usable, but I wanted to go in a different direction. I’m not sure why Masterof the Tunes (#9) is again running for this N2X allowance condition despite still being eligible for the N1X level. However, she showed last time out that she fits well against this tougher company. She was clearly best that day despite finishing second, as she was wide around both turns and made the first move to take over in a race that was coming apart at the end. She also ran better than the result indicates two back when encountering early trouble and racing wide over a rail-biased course. If Eric Cancel can work out a decent trip for her, she’s a real threat.

WIN: #9 Masterof the Tunes, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 3,10
 

RACE 8: MOON HUNTER (#2)

This conditioned claiming event is arguably the most wide open race on the card. The favorites don’t stand on particularly firm ground and there’s some kind of case to be made for almost every runner in the field. Golquist (#3) or Maseta (#1) appear most likely to take money in this race, and I wouldn’t be particularly fond of either one at short prices. The former seems like an especially poor gamble, as he is totally unreliable to show up from race to race. He also achieved his best result when benefited from a rail bias and slow pace going two turns. Maseta is a little more appealing, as he hasn’t ever gotten a chance to sprint on turf. He’s a handy horse who may not mind the turnback, and William Morey has done well with turf claims in the past. I just want to search for some better value in a race that looks so competitive. He’s Got It (#4) should go off at a better price than both aforementioned runners. While he’s never actually crossed the wire first in his career, he did show he could handle this distance when justifiably put up via disqualification in his maiden score over this track. Since then he hasn’t hit the board in any of his starts for James Ryerson. However, he did run deceptively well two back when chasing outside against a rail bias. Then last time he set an extremely fast pace in a race that fell apart. I like the turnback in distance for him and believe he’s in better form than it appears. My top pick at what is likely to be an even bigger price is Moon Hunter (#2). He looks a little slow from a speed figure standpoint, but he’s had significant excuses in every start since getting claimed by Gary Sciacca. He was off awkwardly on Aug. 14, never raced on the rail during a rail bias period, and was compromised by an extremely slow pace. He again encountered trouble on Sep. 3 when racing wide every step of the way against a much tougher field. I don’t care about the dirt race last time, as his form is now so obscured that he has to be a generous price. He’s getting back to the right surface and distance, and takes a needed drop in class.

WIN: #2 Moon Hunter, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 4
 

RACE 9: LADY OF THOROTON (#1)

I suppose some may just concede this race to Dreamful (#3), who has run superior speed figures in almost all of her turf starts for trainer Brad Cox. She also has tactical speed in a race that features a murky pace scenario. However, she’s settled for minor awards on most occasions and seems to have some aversion to winning, so I’m reluctant to accept too short a price on her. Furthermore, it’s unclear what kind of form she’s in right now. I won’t hold the dirt race against her last time, but we still haven’t seen her perform on the turf in over 5 months. Pegs A. K. Girl (#11) seems like one of the main rivals after she finished a strong second at 24-1 last time at Colonial. I don’t always trust form from that turf course, but she did race competitively with a better field than the one she meets here. She just has to overcome a wide post position. My top pick is a filly who is also going to need some racing luck. Lady of Thoroton (#1) typically drops out of her races and makes one run, so she requires some pace to close into. However, she does have the ability to compete at this level, which she confirmed on July 29 when closing for third at Saratoga. Since then her form is not nearly as poor as it might appear at first glance. Two of her next three starts came in off the turf races, and she’s just not a dirt horse. She got back on grass last time, but her trip was a disaster. She got extremely rank behind a slow early pace and then launched a wide move to nowhere on the far turn before flattening out. She’s better than that and can launch a more effective rally if she’s able to settle in the early going. She obviously needs to take a step forward, but she’s going to be a generous price and I don’t fully trust some of those who will take money here.

WIN: #1 Lady of Thoroton, at 8-1 or greater