PICKS

Race 1:   8 - 6 - 3 - 1A
Race 2:   3 - 5 - 2
Race 3:   6 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 4:   5 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 5:   3 - 5 - 2 - 10
Race 6:   2 - 3 - 4 - 11
Race 7:   7 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 8:   9 - 4 - 11 - 2
Race 9:   10 - 5 - 12 - 8

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

I’m always leaning towards an optimistic view when it comes to Unbridled Bomber (#5). And it is tempting to explain away this horse’s last few results due to the lack of Lasix. If you do that, the outlook becomes much brighter. I do think the Lasix angle can be a crutch at times, and it’s not like he ran that badly without it in the Westchester and Suburban. Yet he has performed well more consistently on Lasix, and he’s also now getting significant class relief. I also like that he’s being reunited with Jose Ortiz, who rode him very well last fall and spring. I’m just a little bothered by his lack of effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and wonder if he might finally be tailing off a bit. He could regress from his best races and still beat this field, but he’s going to be a short price for the first time in a while. If I’m going to beat Unbridled Bomber, I want to do it with the new face. Daydreaming Boy (#3), the only 3-year-old in the field, improved once stretched out in distance this summer. He reeled off a pair of easy victories in his first couple of route attempts before putting forth a respectable effort in the Smarty Jones. He wasn't quite able to carry that form forward into the Grade 1 Pennsylvnia Derby, but can easily excuse that result given the company. He figures to now return to stalking tactics that had worked previously. He must take his form outside of Pennsylvania, but he should fit well here and may fly under the radar due to the Parx-based connections.

Fair Value:
#3 DAYDREAMING BOY, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 5

Weekend Rags (#5) is typically a short price in these races, and she’s been a little disappointing. I would have thought she’d win her N1X condition by now given the manner in which she broke her maiden on turf back in the spring. She was beaten by a good horse in Loon Cry three back, and she didn’t get an ideal trip on Aug. 27 when always out of position stuck behind foes on the worst part of the course. Yet she now gets Irad back in the irons and figures to be a short price despite some lackluster results. Royal Dancer (#2) has a similar profile. She’s made three starts this year, and has improved slightly each time, but I still don’t get the sense that she’s on the cusp of breaking through at this level. She also is returning from a brief freshening, so I wonder if she’ll be able to build on that early season progress. If I’m going to take a horse off a layoff, I’d much rather go for Candy Monet (#3) at a bigger price. This mare has run better than the results indicate in each of her last three turf starts. She got a ridiculously wide trip in her final 2022 appearance at Saratoga, producing some crazy Trakus ground loss stats (no longer accessible). She returned from a layoff this year and nearly got the job done against weaker. She spurted away to a clear lead but was swallowed up late in a race that was falling apart. Then last time she was always traveling wide, and got pushed into the 5-path leaving the far turn as she attempted to rally. She actually held her own against the two aforementioned rivals with the toughest trip. Now she’s drawn better, and Eddie Persaud can have one ready off a layoff.

Fair Value:
#3 CANDY MONET, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 6

Assuming Spirit Prince (#12), who is entered back on Saturday, doesn’t draw into the field, all of the other horses entered for turf have never raced on this surface before. We’re left with a bunch of first time turfers and first time starters, and I want to give preference to those with experience. A few key contenders exit the Sep. 28 race that was rained off the grass. Live to Ride (#3) ran surprisingly well there considering his overtly turf pedigree, showing determination to stay on for fourth. A $164k yearling purchase at Arqana, he’s by top international turf sire Kingman, and the dam was stakes-placed on turf in France. Her best foal is French G3 turf winner Wind Chimes, who was second by a head in the Group 1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp. He makes plenty of sense, but figures to go favored with Irad Ortiz named to ride. Marceau (#4) is another exiting that race who figures to benefit from the switch to turf. Distorted Humor is a 13% turf route sire, and the dam achieved all of her victories on turf. She’s produced 3 winners from 4 foals to race, two of which are turf winners. He seems like a leggy type that will appreciate every bit of this two-turn distance. My top pick is Quokka (#2). He finished farther back in that Sep. 28 event, but at least he tried to show some tactical speed that day before retreating. He just looked like one who wasn’t handling the surface, as he came off the bridle early. His dam raced in England, and placed in a 10-furlong handicap on turf. She hasn’t produced any turf runner, but she is a full-sister to stakes-placed turf router Quaintly. This horse also has the action of one that will really appreciate the switch to grass. Tom Albertrani doesn’t have great stats with first time turfers, but he is 11 for 66 (17%, $3.01 ROI) with maiden second time starters over 5 years.

Fair Value:
#2 QUOKKA, at 10-1 or greater

RACE 7

There’s no denying that Mursal (#5) is the horse to beat in this starter allowance, but I’m starting to get a little sick of her. She’s been short prices twice in a row and has contended in the stretch like she might win before settling for minor awards. She figure to appreciate the slight turnback to 7 furlongs, since she might have run her best race going that distance three back. However, she’s going to be another short price, and I want to find better value. Vax (#1) comes into this race off an unusual series of claims. Linda Rice claimed her for $40k in July, dropped her in for $16k at Saratoga, where she lost her to former connections William Butler and Mike Maker. Yet she then claimed the horse away from then again for $40k in September. It’s odd that Rice would go in for $80k on a horse that she ran for a fifth of that price for the one start she had her. Yet now she’s moving up into a protected spot, so perhaps the outlook has changed. I still think she would need to improve, but I’m afraid of her. My top pick is Ghostly Girl (#7). She figures to get overlooked following a dull effort in the slop last time. Yet it never appeared that she was handling that wet surface, so I’m willing to forgive the performance. There’s no alarming class drop, and her best efforts clearly put her in the mix. I suspect we haven’t yet seen the best she’ll have to offer for John Toscano, and she drew well outside for this cutback to 7 furlongs. I wouldn’t say I love her in this spot, but she does figure to be the right price in a race where I’m skeptical of the favorites.

Fair Value:
#7 GHOSTLY GIRL, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 8

There is supposed to be an honest pace in this race given a concentration of speed drawn towards the inside. Both Indian Mischief (#2) and Spiritual King (#3) appear to be need-the-lead types, and Laurel Valley (#8) has also done his best recent running when able to control the pace. Therefore, it is no surprise to see the TimeformUS Pace Projector predicting a fast pace. The horse who figures to benefit most from this scenario is my top pick One Headlight (#9). This horse has talent, but circumstances have forced him to settle for minor awards more often than not. He should have won his career debut when stumbling at the quarter pole before running on belatedly for second. Two starts later he earned his only victory when overcoming a slow pace and wide trip to win going this distance. He lost twice at Saratoga, but was compromised on each occasion. He was hampered by a slow pace going a mile two back in a race dominated by frontrunners. Then last time he never saw the rail in a race where the top two finishers rode the inside path. He was closing best of all at the end, but ground loss got him beat. I like him getting back out to 9 furlongs here, and the pace is supposed to be in his favor this time. The other obvious player is Clear Conscience (#4), but I thought he was fortunate to beat One Headlight when he broke his maiden. He met a good field in his first attempt versus winners on June 10, but was somewhat disappointing last time. The trip didn’t work out as he got stymied behind runners in the stretch, but I still thought he was a bit dull. Now he returns from a layoff as a new gelding. I would also note that Timbuktu (#11) has drawn into the field from the AE list. He has a tough post position to overcome, but he does have races that put him in the mix, and he is another who would appreciate some pace developing.

Fair Value:
#9 ONE HEADLIGHT, at 5-2 or greater